2023 Shriners Children's Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on October 10, 2023

Shriners Children's Open Betting Preview

It was a dramatic finish in Jackson on Sunday, as Luke List snapped a slump with a hot putter and bested four other players with a birdie on the first playoff hole en route to his second PGA Tour win.

The action continues this week in Las Vegas with the annual Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin. Tournament favorite Tom Kim -- listed at 11-1 odds -- headlines a weaker-than-usual field that includes up-and-coming rookie Ludvig Aberg -- who check in at 12-1 -- and LPGA star Lexi Thompson, who will participate on a sponsor's exemption.

Last year, Kim -- at 22-1 -- picked up his first PGA Tour win with a three-stroke victory over Patrick Cantlay and Matthew NeSmith.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 71, 7,255 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Shriners Children's Open Winners Over Last Five Years

SG: Off-the-Tee: 25.6
SG: Approach: 10.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 23.8
SG: Putting: 18.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 12.2
Driving Distance: 35.2
Driving Accuracy: 14.8

At under 7,300 yards, TPC Summerlin doesn't play particularly long -- especially when you factor in the Vegas elevation. Only two of the par-4s play over 460 yards, so this isn't a course that benefits those who gain ground off the tee. That's evidenced in that stats above, with accuracy having a premium over length. With that said, the rough isn't too tricky, so the main thing to avoid are big misses that wind up in the desert. Iron play is the key statistic to hone in on, with the winner ranking sixth in better in SG: Approach four of the last five years. Expect a lot of approaches to be struck in the 125-175 yard range. Expect the birdies to come in bunches on this track, as the winning score has been 21-under-par or better five years running.

Locked in at Summerlin

The following players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Summerlin since 2018.

NeSmith tops the list despite not having a win in this event. That's because he has posted a top-20 in all four of his appearances. He's done it largely due to elite iron play, ranking top-5 in SG: Approach in back-to-back years. Surprisingly, that doesn't seem to have the attention of the oddsmaker, as despite a T25 last week he's priced at 70-1 to win. Another player that has put himself in contention here often -- albeit a bit higher up the betting board at 30-1 -- is Schenk. Coming off an excellent season in which he qualified for the TOUR Championship for the first time, Schenk heads back to a course where he has recorded four top-20s in six trips. It will be his first start since East Lake, but he did record a top-10 in six of his last 11 events to close out the summer.

The Correct Approach

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

It has been a whirlwind year for Ryder, who went through a stretch at the beginning of 2023 with five top-20s over seven tournaments before struggling mightily thereafter. He has bounced back and tops this list due to elite iron play that has led to five made cuts in a row and a pair of top-15s. He's under the radar at 60-1. Meanwhile, Putnam has also been true with his irons, as he ranks 27th in SG: Approach this season. Combine that with his success at Summerlin -- four straight made cuts and three top-20s during that span -- and you have yourself a golfer that's viable at 35-1 and is undervalued in DFS contests.

Shriners Children's Open Bets: Outright Picks

Cam Davis (22-1)

Davis goes through stretches where he can't seem to make a cut and periods where it looks like he could win any given week. Recently it has been the latter, as he managed four top-10s over his last five starts, including a solo third last week. He has made the cut in all four of his trips to Summerlin.

Alex Smalley (45-1)

With iron play being a key factor Smalley stands out, as he's 32nd in SG: Approach this season. He's one of the better ball strikers in the field, ranking among the top half on Tour in both driving distance and accuracy. He finished -47 in his debut here last year despite losing shots in the short game.

Ben Griffin (50-1)

Conventional wisdom says to avoid Griffin after he was unable to hold onto the 54-hole lead in Jackson, but why can't he contend again? He led the field in SG: Approach last week and he's a solid course fit considering the driver -- his biggest weakness -- will not be a primary factor.

Shriners Children's Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Nick Taylor (11-2)

Taylor hasn't recorded a top-15 since winning the Canadian Open in June, but after a much-needed break he will tee it up for the first time this fall. He's heading to a place where he has made the cut seven times in nine appearances, and he has five top-10s this year.

Kevin Streelman (9-1)

Streelman has an extensive history in this event, missing the cut only twice in 13 appearances while notching a runner-up and six top-25s. He finished -2 at the 3M Open this summer, so the 44-year-old is still capable of contending at courses that fit his game.

Harry Hall (11-1)

Hall is a Vegas resident who knows TPC Summerlin well, recording a top-15 finish in both of his professional appearances while shooting 68 or lower in six of his eight rounds. The rookie hasn't shown much lately but does have three top-10s since March and a very solid short game.

Shriners Children's Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-110) over Mark Hubbard

Bezuidenhout flashed some form last week with a top-10 finish, and he put up a top-20 in his debut here last year despite losing strokes on the putting surface, which is normally a strength of his. Hubbard, on the other hand, has mediocre results here, with four made cuts in seven trips and a best finish of T28.

Alex Noren (-120) over Chesson Hadley

I'm surprised to see Noren as only a slight favorite in this matchup, as he's clearly the better golfer of the two. He recorded three top-25s over his last seven events, compared to just four on the entire season for his competitor. Hadley has posted three top-10s in this event, but none of those have come since 2018. If you needed more reason to back Noren, his superb short game makes him a good course fit.

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