This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Fortinet Championship Betting Preview
Much of the attention in the golf world is turned toward the upcoming Ryder Cup, but the PGA Tour is back after a brief break with the Fortinet Championship on the North Course at Silverado Country Club in Napa, California.
With the Tour switching from a wraparound schedule to one that fits in a calendar year, this week's event is the start of the 2023 FedExCup Fall, a series in which players will look to improve their position among the priority ranking and earn their way into designated events. Highlighting the field are tournament favorite Max Homa -- listed at 7-1 odds -- and Justin Thomas, who are preparing to represent the U.S. Team at Marco Simone in two weeks.
Last year, Homa -- also the favorite, but at 10-1 -- defended his 2021 Fortinet Championship title by chipping in on the final hole to outduel Danny Willett by one stroke.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:15 PM ET Tuesday.
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Course Characteristics
Par 72, 7,166 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Fortinet Championship Winners Over Last Five Years
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 11.6
- SG: Approach: 17.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 14.8
- SG: Putting: 18.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 1.8
- Driving Distance: 9.0
- Driving Accuracy: 28.2
As a par-72 course that checks in below 7,200 yards, Silverado Country Club is a short track by Tour standards. In fact, the course features just one par-4 over 440 yards. Off the tee, players are faced with tree-lined fairways and have the option to play position golf or to take on the risk. With past winners including Cameron Champ and Kevin Tway, longer hitters tend to have more of an advantage and will face a lot of approach shots inside 125 yards. The Tee-to-Green stat has proven pivotal, with the winner finishing first or second in that category four straight years. The winning score has been 16-under or better every year since 2019, so there will be plenty of birdies to be had. Expect ample excitement down the stretch, as there are a pair of par-5s over the final three holes.
Shining at Silverado
The following five golfers have the lowest scoring average at Silverado Country Club since 2018.
- Zac Blair: 69.4
- Sahith Theegala: 69.4
- Max Homa: 69.7
- Chez Reavie: 69.7
- Brian Stuard: 69.9
Although Homa is the one with multiple wins at this course, it's Blair -- listed at 100-1 odds -- who comes in with the lowest scoring average, and also results of T4 and T12 over his last three trips here. He seems to be fully recovered from a shoulder procedure that caused him to miss all of 2021 and most of 2022, having posted three top-15s since March, including a T2 at the Travelers Championship -- a designated event. Another player who has fared well here is Reavie, who has made 11-of-13 cuts and posted a T3 in 2020. He's a good fit on shorter courses that emphasize iron play and driving accuracy, as evidenced by his T4 at the Travelers and T6 at the Valero Texas Open. At 60-1 odds, he's someone to consider if you're looking for a long shot.
Trending from Tee to Green
These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Stephan Jaeger: 1.32
- Max Homa: 1.28
- Cam Davis: 1.26
- Kevin Yu: 1.14
- J.J. Spaun: 1.11
It might be a surprise to see Jaeger -- tied for the fourth choice at 20-1 odds at the top -- but maybe it shouldn't be considering he finished the season 21st in this category. Following a slow start he ripped off four top-20s over his last six events, and his last missed cut came 14 starts ago in a designated event. Homa is the lone player to make both lists, which is no surprise given his track record here and his current top-10 streak which sits at four. The only questions are travel -- he, along with Thomas, made the trek back from Italy -- and value, as he is the only player with a single digit on the left side of his odds. Regardless, Homa is certainly the player to beat and is also a top target in DFS contests.
Fortinet Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Brendon Todd (35-1)
Todd hasn't won since he took home back-to-back trophies in the fall of 2019, but he has come close, posting a pair of T2 finishes since February. What the 38-year-old lacks in distance he makes up for everywhere else, as he sits third in SG: Around-the-Green, sixth in driving accuracy and 29th in SG: Putting. He also finished fourth in SG: Approach here last year en route to a top-10 finish.
J.J. Spaun (35-1)
Spaun should feel comfortable against a weaker field, and he has proven to like this time of the year, making the cut in all six of his appearances last fall while notching three top-15s. He's a solid 36th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season and finished T9 here in 2020.
Mark Hubbard (60-1)
Hubbard has been honed in at Silverado, tallying three top-25 finishes over his last four trips while putting very well. Combine that with his excellent iron play -- he is 14th in SG: Approach -- and his four top-10s since May and you have a player who is a dark horse to pick up his first win.
Fortinet Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Sam Ryder (11-2)
Ryder struggled most of this summer but popped up with a T7 result in the Twin Cities for his fourth top-10 of the season. He finished just one shot shy of a playoff here in 2018.
Austin Eckroat (6-1)
Eckroat is one of the youngsters on Tour that feels close to breaking out. His game is led by his above average length and accuracy with his driver and he ranks 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Eckroat's season has been highlighted by a T2 at the Byron Nelson and a top-10 at the U.S. Open.
Chad Ramey (11-1)
Ramey had a disappointing season, finishing 115th on the FedExCup Standings. However, all three of his top-20s during the campaign came over his last 10 events. He's an accurate driver with a solid short game, and he is also an excellent putter on bermuda greens.
Fortinet Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Cam Davis (-110) over Beau Hossler
Nothing against Hossler, who has had a solid season overall, but Davis is the much better golfer among the two. Despite that, the sportsbooks have this as a true toss-up. Davis is the superior ball striker and finished the summer strong, with three top-10s over his last four events -- including one in the playoffs.
Andrew Putnam (-120) over Eric Cole
Cole missed the cut by six shots here a year ago while Putnam has made four straight cuts in Napa. Putnam is a great target in matchups due to his consistency, as he made 24-of-29 cuts -- with four of the missed cuts coming in designated events. Cole faded late in the summer, failing to record a top-10 over his last eight events.
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