2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on August 8, 2023 7:19PM EST

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Tour's regular season has come to a close, and the top 70 players in the FedExCup Standings will tee it up in the first playoff event -- the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee.

For the second consecutive year the first of three playoff events will kick off at TPC Southwind, a venue that has hosted a Tour event yearly since 1989. The top 50 players in the standings will advance to the next week, and the field is headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, who is listed at 13-2 odds.

Last year, Will Zalatoris -- at 25-1 -- defeated Sepp Straka on the third playoff hole to capture his first PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:05 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 70, 7,244 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Champions at TPC Southwind Over Last Five Years

SG: Off-the-Tee: 12.2
SG: Approach: 4.4
SG: Around-the-Green: 27.6
SG: Putting: 22.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.6
Driving Distance: 20.2
Driving Accuracy: 28.2

TPC Southwind has been a ball striker's paradise, with the winner of the event held there ranking top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach every year since 2015. From the teebox, players are faced with numerous doglegs and narrow fairways that average under 30 yards wide. Combine that with tree-lined fairways and there's an emphasis on not being too wild with the driver. There are five par-4s that play over 465 yards, so a combination of length and accuracy is needed. Iron play is also a key factor, with water coming into play on about half the holes -- and primarily on approach shots. All in all, I'm looking for players who approach it well in the 150-200 yard range, are quality ball strikers and avoid bogeys.

Whistling at Southwind

The following golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Southwind since 2018.

Burns has shown an affinity for this course, losing in a playoff in 2021 and contending last year before fading in the final round. Although his four top-10s this year don't really stand out, it has been a solid 2023 for the 27-year-old, as he won the Match Play event and is still one of the longer drivers and better putters on Tour. He should not be overlooked at 30-1 odds. Further down we find Fitzpatrick, who will be making his fifth trip to Memphis. Over his first four he recorded three top-10s. He has had a similar season to Burns, picking up a win this spring but otherwise lacking a top-5 result. Even so, he has gained shots in every Strokes Gained category, and his success at this venue makes him undervalued at 35-1 to win.

In the Proper Form

These five players, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.

Scheffler's run of seven consecutive top-5 finishes finally came to an end at The Open Championship, as he finished T23 despite ranking third in SG: Tee-to-Green. As good of a season as it has been, it almost feels like he has underperformed, as despite his two wins he did not pick up a major. He can make up for that over the next few weeks after letting the FedEx Cup slip through his fingers last year. The only player to make both lists is Morikawa, who given his success here and success in the ball-striking department of late -- makes for a good One-and-Done pick if you still have him available. With three top-3 finishes this year and six missed cuts, identifying when he's going to play well tends to be easier said than done, though. He is tied for the seventh choice on the betting board at 22-1.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

Cantlay has had a strong season but the lack of a win makes it feel somewhat incomplete. He can fix that in Memphis, and he's no stranger to success in the playoffs, winning three playoff events over the last two years. He leads the Tour in total driving and is 24th in approach, which is a good recipe for success at Southwind.

Viktor Hovland (20-1)

Hovland is gaining 1.25 strokes per round with his ball striking this season, and when you combine that with the strides he has made around the greens, it's no surprise that he won his first marquee event this summer. He's a good pivot target off the top favorites.

Jordan Spieth (35-1)

Spieth has had a bunch of close calls this season, and it feels like it's only a matter of time before he finally converts one of them into a win. He has had strong tee-to-green weeks at The Open and at the Memorial, and in tournaments where he has fared well on the greens -- the RBC Heritage and Valspar Championship -- he's had an opportunity to win.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Other Wagers

Keegan Bradley
Top-10 Finish: 5-1

Bradley has a big three weeks ahead of him with a potential Ryder Cup spot on the line. Last time we saw him in the U.S. he won the Travelers Championship and followed it up with a T21 in Detroit, so his game is in good shape. He's gaining shots in every Strokes Gained category and is 17th in SG: Total, making this a nice value play.

Tony Finau
Top-5 Finish: 7-1

Finau is in a similar boat to Bradley when it comes to his Ryder Cup chances, and he has played well in the playoffs previously, with a win in 2021 as well as a T5 here last year. He's also coming off his best finish in some time with a T7 at the 3M Open.

Vincent Norrman
Top-10 Finish: 12-1

Of the rookies on Tour, Norrman has stood out. He possesses a lot of potential if he can make some improvements in the short game. He was top-10 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach in Minnesota and is 14th in driving distance this season. He won the Barbasol Championship last month, so he's trending in the right direction.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Cam Davis (+100) over Emiliano Grillo

I wound up on the right side of both matchups last week, and as we try to keep things rolling I'll start with Davis, who finished T13 here last year compared to Grillo's T31. Davis is in good form, finishing T17 or better in his last three stateside starts, a stretch that includes consecutive top-10s. I like the length and short game advantages he has over Grillo, who tends to be more hit-or-miss.

Thomas Detry (-110) over Keith Mitchell

Mitchell hasn't shown much in his three trips to TPC Southwind, finishing T37, 39th and T31. Plus, he has really struggled with his iron play this year. Detry will be making his first appearance here, but his all-around game should make him a good course fit. He posted quality finishes of 21st and T13 over his last two starts.

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