This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Preview
Golfers will make the trek to Bermuda this week for the fourth installment of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Originally held as an alternate-field event, this tournament was elevated to a regular Tour stop with full status in 2020. However, it has struggled to generate a strong turnout. This week's field includes just one top-50 player -- Seamus Power -- in the Official World Golf Ranking and is headlined by tournament favorite Denny McCarthy, who checks in with 14-1 odds. Last year, Lucas Herbert -- at 66-1 -- picked up his first PGA Tour victory, defeating Danny Lee and Patrick Reed by one stroke.
Port Royal Golf Course is the host venue and plays as a par-71 with four par-3s and three par-5s. At just over 6,800 yards, it is one of the shortest courses the Tour will visit all season. Six of the par-4s play less than 400 yards, and while this event doesn't have any Strokes Gained data to draw from, driving is negated significantly and wedge play and putting are much more crucial than at a standard Tour setup. Rain is possible all the way from Thursday through Sunday and will likely make playing conditions difficult, so be sure to keep an eye on the weather for any potential advantages gained by tee times.
I'm mainly targeting strong putters -- especially those on bermuda greens -- and accurate drivers that can deal with the windy conditions. We will have to look further down the list than usual to find rookies and veterans worth targeting.
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Course History
The following five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Port Royal Golf Course.
- Brian Gay: 67.4
- Russell Knox: 68.3
- David Hearn: 68.5
- Kramer Hickok: 68.5
- Denny McCarthy: 68.6
Gay will be making his first start of the season at a place where he has recorded a win, a T3 and a T12 last year. The 50-year-old has mainly turned his attention to the Champions Tour, and his last top-10 on the PGA Tour was his victory here in 2020. He'd be an unlikely long shot winner at 150-1, and he's a quality low-cost DFS option in you like the course history angle. Another long shot that has had success at Port Royal is Hickok, who is listed at 80-1 and has finished no worse than 30th in his three appearances, including a best result of T8. Like many of the players in the field, Hickok hasn't shown much of late, with just one top-10 finish since the start of last season. His accuracy off the tee makes him a good fit for the course, though, and also someone bettors should keep an eye on this week.
Current Form
These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes putting over their last 20 rounds.
- Justin Lower: 0.82
- Adam Long: 0.66
- Chesson Hadley: 0.64
- Sam Ryder: 0.61
- Russell Knox: 0.48
If there's a place to focus on strong putters, this is it, as previous winners Herbert and Brendon Todd are two of the best on Tour. Second-year player Lower has shown that is the best part of his game, and along with his accuracy off the tee, he should be a good fit here. He posted his first top-5 at the Fortinet Championship last month and comes into this tournament with 30-1 odds. Knox is the lone player to make both lists, as in addition to his recent success with the flat stick he has recorded three top-20 finishes in the event. It's no wonder why Knox has done well here, as he ranked top-25 in driving accuracy and SG: Approach last season. He has been in contention several times in 2022, recording two top-10s and a total of six top-25s.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Outright Picks
Mark Hubbard (25-1)
Hubbard has made the cut in both trips here and is playing some of the best golf of his career. His profile fits Port Royal really well -- he gained strokes in every category last season except driving. He's my preferred bet over the top options on the board.
Patrick Rodgers (30-1)
Rodgers' game is better-suited for longer courses, but he is also an above-average putter who finished fourth here last year. Still in search of his first Tour victory, he has a prime opportunity to grab one against a weaker field.
Nick Hardy (35-1)
Hardy has been trending in the right direction in recent months, as he regained his Tour card through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, has made all three of his cuts this fall and posted a T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. I expect the 26-year-old to continue finding success, as he has good length with the driver and is seventh in SG: Approach early on.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Top-10 Wagers
Chesson Hadley (11-2)
Coming off a top-10 with K.H. Lee last week, I'll look to keep it rolling with Hadley, who has recorded four top-10 finishes since July. He's prone to missing cuts, which makes him a difficult player to handicap. However, his prowess on the putting green gives me confidence in backing him this week.
Sam Ryder (6-1)
Ryder went through a rough stretch of golf this summer but appears to have righted the ship, having made six of his last seven cuts. He did not really contend in any of those instances but is gaining over 0.7 shots on approach and putting 10 rounds into his season.
Erik Barnes (11-1)
Most out there will not be familiar with Barnes, a long-time Korn Ferry Tour grinder who finally got his PGA Tour card this season. This is as good a week as any to take some chances on long shots, though, and Barnes is a good ball striker who should feel comfortable against this level of competition.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Head-to-Head Matchups
Stephan Jaeger (-110) over Aaron Rai
It has taken some time for Jaeger's Korn Ferry Tour success to translate to the top level, but he seems to have done it, making seven cuts in a row and picking up a top-5 during that span. That makes him a great fit for a one-on-one bet, especially against Rai, who has been more hit-or-miss. Jaeger bested his counterpart here last year thanks to a top-20 finish.
Brandon Wu (-120) over Austin Eckroat
In a matchup between two up-and-comers, I'm willing to lay the extra juice on Wu, who has the much better short game and will not be as affected off the tee as Eckroat is. Wu has four top-10s in 2022 after a slow start to his rookie season, and he is someone I see having a breakthrough sophomore campaign.
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