NFL Futures Bets: DraftKings NFL Record Breakers Market

DraftKings Sportsbook: NFL Records That Could Fall in 2023

When looking at the NFL futures markets, it's always interesting to see where the sportsbooks set their lines. The player props are especially interesting as the books forecast a player's individual successes, or failures, for the season to come.

For example, DraftKings set Aaron Rodgers' passing yards line at over/under 3,950.5, D.K. Metcalf's receiving yards at over/under 900.5, and Micah Parsons' sack total at over/under 13.25. I like the overs on all three of these future props.

Expecting these players to have success and betting the over, that's one thing, but what about betting on an NFL record to be broken? Which bettors out there are willing to bet on something that has never happened in NFL history?

Let's explore a few NFL records that could be broken, with lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Any Player to Break the Defensive Sacks Single Season Record (Over 22.5 Sacks)

Yes (+550)/No (-800)

In recent years, the closest man to the record-breaking number of 23 sacks was Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt, with a record-tying 22.5 sacks in 2021; Michael Strahan previously set the current record of 22.5 sacks in 2001.

Last season's sacks leader, Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, finished with 18.5 sacks. All three of Bosa's NFC West division rivals (Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams) finished inside the Top 10 in sacks allowed in 2022. If those divisional rivals failed to fortify their offensive lines this season, Bosa could flirt with 20 sacks again, barring any contract issues. 

Another individual that could set a new single-season sacks record: Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns.

Garrett collected 16 sacks last season and posted a league-high 25.6 percent pass-rush win rate, according to Pro Football Focus. The Cleveland defensive end is still in his prime and has amassed 74.5 sacks in 84 career games played.

The Browns' regular season schedule features the aforementioned NFC West teams, as well as the Denver Broncos (most sacks allowed in 2022), Indianapolis Colts (2nd-most sacks allowed in 2022), Chicago Bears (4th-most sacks allowed in 2022), and Tennessee Titans (T-5th-most sacks allowed in 2022). Garrett will have plenty of opportunities to rack up sacks this season.

I believe that Garrett can break the sacks record, compiling 23 in 2023.

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Any Player to Break the Single Season Passing Yards Record (Over 5,477.5 Yards)

Yes (+400)/No (-600)

Peyton Manning's NFL single-season record of 5,477 passing yards is in peril. 

To reach the magic number of 5,478 passing yards, a quarterback would need to average 322.24 yards per game; a couple of quarterbacks have actually out-produced this number.

In 2011, Drew Brees set the single-season passing yards record with 5,476 yards and a per-game average of 342.3. Just two years later, Manning recorded a per-game average of 342.3 and broke Brees' previous record by just one yard.

It only takes one, tiny, measly yard to set a new NFL record.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for a career-high 5,250 yards last season, averaging 308.8 yards per game. Mahomes' highest per-game average was 318.6 yards in his first MVP-winning campaign in 2018. Would anyone be surprised if he hit 5,500 yards this year?

Not just Mahomes, but Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, all seem like realistic options to post a 323 passing yards per game average. And with a 17-game schedule, one of these men could realistically be NFL record breakers.

It's probably not going to happen in 2023, but at some point in the near future, I think a quarterback is going to hit 6,000 passing yards. A quarterback would need to average 352.9 yards per game over 17 games to be the first QB to hit 6K. 

That's a wildly high number, but the way the NFL is trending, it seems plausible.

Any Player to Break the Single Season Receiving Yards Record (Over 1,964.5 Yards)

Yes (+425)/No (-800)

The NFL single-season receiving yards record was set by former Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson in 2012. Johnson averaged 122.8 yards per game over 16 games and had a blistering 1,254 yards in Weeks 8 thru 15, an eight-week stretch that included two 200-plus receiving yard performances.

That level of production is going to be tough to replicate, but a few receivers have come close recently. 

Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp threatened Johnson's record back in 2021, collecting 1,947 receiving yards in a monster season; also reeling in 145 catches and 16 touchdowns. Injuries from last season, and in training camp this season, may have Kupp slipping slightly out of the conversation of breaking the single-season receiving yards record, but it's not just Kupp's injuries, quarterback Matthew Stafford's health plays a big role as well.

One man that can run down the receiving yards record in 2023: Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.

Jefferson posted a league-high 1,809 receiving yards last season, averaging 106.4 yards per game. Now, Jefferson is on an offense that lost their lead running back from the season prior, Dalvin Cook. 

Minnesota's defense was 30th in the NFL in points allowed in 2022, allowing 25.4 points per game. If this defense fails to improve in 2023, and the Vikings find themselves playing from behind often, Minnesota will lean heavily on their passing game; Jefferson being the focal point in negative game scripts.

A subpar defense and a running game subtraction could lead to a new NFL receiving yards record.

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.