Yahoo DFS Football: Week 16 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 16 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping in headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate from the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper-echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments/Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian -- target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places -- the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Although previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP - GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Aaron Rodgers (GB, $33)

With all of the steady options at quarterback this week, few will look to Rodgers. He faces a stingy Cardinals secondary and has failed to throw for more than 300 yards or three touchdowns in his last five games. Rodgers is frustrated with his inconsistent offense. The Packers simply don't look like the same juggernaut that has been a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs the last half decade. It's the perfect storm for Rodgers to put the team on his back and rise to the occasion. The 49.5 projected total is one of the highest of Week 16, and the Cardinals have lost top-rated cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for the season. The Cardinals are stingy against the run, ranking top five in both rush yards against (86.7) and YPC allowed (3.9), likely forcing Rodgers to throw at least 40 times. The matchup should be competitive. Expect the return of Vintage Rodgers -- quite possibly this week's QB1.

Shane Vereen (NYG, $11)

With Odell Beckham Jr. suspended, Eli Manning and the Giants passing attack need to game plan around another one of their weapons. The inconsistent Rueben Randle does not seem like the right answer. Nor does Dwayne Harris or Hakeem Nicks. When called upon this season, Vereen has risen to the occasion. With no more than six carries in any game, Vereen is primarily used in the passing game. He has caught eight targets four times this year, averaging 66 receiving yards in those outings. Those four games happen to be the only ones this season in which he's amassed double-digit fantasy points. This week's primetime slate feels like another of those games. At a mere 11 bucks, he fits in well as your late-night flex play, allowing you to go big at other positions. Note: If Beckham's suspension is reversed and you don't want Vereen, spend the few extra bucks for Denard Robinson (JAX, $14) or Christine Michael (SEA, $15).

Dez Bryant (DAL, $16)

What has the fantasy world come to when one of the game's elite receivers is hanging out near the bottom of the bargain bin with a measly $16 price? Bryant missed nearly two months of the season and has played most of this second half of the season without his tried-and-true quarterback, Tony Romo. He has suffered with Matt Cassel under center, gaining more than 100 yards just once this season with only two touchdown receptions the last six weeks. Although the Week 16 game with the Bills may run at a snail's pace (both teams rank near the bottom with 63 or fewer plays per game this year), quarterback Kellen Moore has the capability of locking in on Dez and feeding him voluminously. With so many affordable and more reliable studs at wide receiver this week, Bryant may be overlooked despite the depressed tag. It's a great opportunity for us to take advantage of.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ, $32)
RB: Lamar Miller (MIA, $28), Christine Michael (SEA, $15)
WR: Julio Jones (CAR, $31), John Brown (ARI, $23), Stefon Diggs (MIN, $13)
TE: Will Tye (NYG, $12)
DEF: Detroit Lions ($10)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Blake Bortles (JAX, $36)

Quite surprisingly, Bortles heads into the final two weeks of the season as a top-5 fantasy quarterback this season. He is fifth in the league with 31 passing touchdowns and ranked sixth in rushing yards (305) among all signal-callers. Bortles has been very consistent, throwing for at least 250 yards or two touchdowns in 10-of-15 games this year, averaging nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns over his last four. He has run in touchdowns himself in consecutive games. Along with Cam Newton, Bortles is the most expensive quarterback on the board this week, but should be well worth it as he lines up to face the league's most putrid pass defense in the week's highest projected point total. No reason to overthink this one for cash games.

Running Back

Charcandrick West (KC, $23)

West will be a popular plug-and-play in Week 16 given the Chiefs' massive spread advantage (12.5) and the Browns' basement run defense ranking (31st in the league, allowing 135 rushing yards per game). West ran for 76 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries last week without having to share the backfield with Spencer Ware, who did not receive any carries as he was still dealing with a rib injury. West earned his keep not long after Jamaal Charles went down for the year, amassing more than 400 all-purpose yards and four TD over a three-game stretch from Weeks 7 through 9. The Week 16 matchup with the Browns is about as good as it gets. Ware likely will mix in with some touches this week, but West will play lead dog and is one of the better bets of the week to break a long one.

David Johnson (ARI, $21)

Expect Johnson's ownership to be sky-high this week following his monster 187-yard, three-TD performance against the Eagles last Sunday night. You will also see Johnson ranked as the top running back for Week 16 across most sites. The Packers have been mediocre against the run this year, and Johnson will be heavily deployed Sunday in what will be one of the most exciting games of the week. Andre Ellington is a longshot to return to the lineup this week. Even if he does, Ellington poses little threat to the snaps and involvement of the dashing rookie back from Northern Iowa. Nothing is ever automatic in fantasy football, but rest assured Johnson will be the most-rostered player since a $10 Todd Gurley against the Browns in Week 7. Fade DJ at your own risk.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson (JAX, $33)

Robinson has been compared to star receiver Dez Bryant since his college days and has officially vaulted into stud status in just his second full season. Robinson is tied with Odell Beckham Jr. and Doug Baldwin for the league lead in touchdown receptions (13) and ranks sixth among all wideouts in fantasy points. He heads into Week 16 as the third-most expensive receiver and has a plum matchup against the Saints. Most important for us, ARob should line up for a good chunk of his snaps against cornerback Brandon Browner, one of the worst-rated corners in football this year. Did I mention it's the highest implied point total of the week? Get some more Bortles-Robinson goodness before the season ends.

Eric Decker (NYJ, $27)

Mr. Consistency has a first name, and it's Eric. He also has a reality television show, but that's a topic for another time. Decker has scored a touchdown in 10 of his 13 games this season and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game. He is the epitome of a cash game play. This week, the Jets have a tough divisional matchup against the Patriots. As we all know, Pats' coach Bill Belichick is extremely efficient at game-planning the opposing team's top option out of commission. In this case, that's Brandon Marshall. One of Decker's three scoreless games this year came against the Pats in Week 7, but he did manage six receptions for 94 yards. His price tag is no longer in no-brainer range, but he is worth heavy consideration for your cash game lineups yet again this week.

Golden Tate (DET, $24)

Tate has become Matthew Stafford's most reliable offensive weapon. Tate has 38 receptions over his last five games and has scored two touchdowns in each of his last two games. Running him out there again this week may feel like point-chasing, but there are several factors that make him appealing: a weak opponent (Niners) at home, an affordable salary and the fact that Calvin Johnson is not at full strength. The only concern is that the Lions take a big lead early and resort to running the ball with Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah. Tate is still a safe cash game play and will find his way onto plenty of lineups this week.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (KC, $15)

I can't seem to think of many players who have universally been considered a DFS-disappointment this season more than Kelce. He was dubbed "Gronk Jr." and was supposed to have a monster season. Although his weekly fantasy production has been lacking, his overall numbers (65 REC, 822 YDS, 4 TD) are still top 7 among tight ends this season. He certainly has not been featured in Andy Reid's offense this season, and I agree with most who believe we haven't seen Kelce's true ceiling. Kelce has been targeted at least seven times in five of the Chiefs' last seven games and you just know the blowup is coming. A matchup with the Browns may be the perfect spot for Reid and Alex Smith to reward patient fantasy owners and DFS players.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs ($16)

If you are looking for a reason to talk yourself out of using the Chiefs this week, just stop now. They have been the best fantasy defense in football over the second half of the season, failing to reach double-digit fantasy points just once over their last eight games. The Chiefs have taken advantage of a not-so-strenuous schedule, including big defensive numbers in their last three games against the Ravens, Chargers and Raiders -- 11 sacks, a fumble recovery and six interceptions, three returned for touchdowns. The fun continues this week as Johnny Manziel joins the pick party as 12.5-point underdogs in Arrowhead. Best of luck to you, Mr. "Football."

Honorable Mentions

QB: Russell Wilson (SEA, $34)
RB: DeAngelo Williams (MIN, $29), Karlos Williams (BUF, $18), Bilal Powell (NYJ, $17)
WR: Antonio Brown (PIT, $36), Demaryius Thomas (DEN, $21), Willie Snead (NO, $18)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (NE, $26)
DEF: Carolina Panthers ($16)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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