Once the elite wide receivers are off the board, fantasy managers face a critical decision: Which breakout wideout can take the leap into the top tier? We broke down the best options in July, but now want to look at several critical player vs. player options near the WR7 to WR9 range in 2025 fantasy football ADP.
Each carries a different blend of volume potential, quarterback synergy and injury risk. Making the right call is a high-leverage fantasy decision, and one we practice for on the mock draft simulator that is part of the RotoWire draft kit.
So, who should you draft: Nico Collins or Brian Thomas Jr.?
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR8)
Brian Thomas delivered a strong rookie campaign with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his breakout truly began once Mac Jones took over at quarterback. Over his final six games, Thomas posted at least 76 receiving yards in each outing, racked up three 100-yard games and averaged 10-14 targets per game.
He showcased explosive after-the-catch ability (88th percentile), making plays regardless of route depth. His connection with Trevor Lawrence, however, was inconsistent. In 11 games with Lawrence, Thomas failed to clear 15 PPR points in eight matchups, including three with less than six points.
The Jaguars are reportedly building their offense around Thomas in 2025. If Lawrence can feed him the way Jones did, Thomas could return WR1 overall value. But that trust isn't a given, and early 2024 usage suggests the risk is
Once the elite wide receivers are off the board, fantasy managers face a critical decision: Which breakout wideout can take the leap into the top tier? We broke down the best options in July, but now want to look at several critical player vs. player options near the WR7 to WR9 range in 2025 fantasy football ADP.
Each carries a different blend of volume potential, quarterback synergy and injury risk. Making the right call is a high-leverage fantasy decision, and one we practice for on the mock draft simulator that is part of the RotoWire draft kit.
So, who should you draft: Nico Collins or Brian Thomas Jr.?
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR8)
Brian Thomas delivered a strong rookie campaign with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his breakout truly began once Mac Jones took over at quarterback. Over his final six games, Thomas posted at least 76 receiving yards in each outing, racked up three 100-yard games and averaged 10-14 targets per game.
He showcased explosive after-the-catch ability (88th percentile), making plays regardless of route depth. His connection with Trevor Lawrence, however, was inconsistent. In 11 games with Lawrence, Thomas failed to clear 15 PPR points in eight matchups, including three with less than six points.
The Jaguars are reportedly building their offense around Thomas in 2025. If Lawrence can feed him the way Jones did, Thomas could return WR1 overall value. But that trust isn't a given, and early 2024 usage suggests the risk is real.
The bottom line: Thomas has excellent upside potential, but his fantasy success hinges on Lawrence. He's a volatile pick near WR8 and best suited for managers chasing upside over safety.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans (WR7)
Nico Collins opened 2024 red-hot, averaging 122 receiving yards and 7.5 catches per game through Week 4. A hamstring injury derailed his midseason, but he bounced back in the playoffs with two 100-yard performances.
Injuries remain the big concern. Collins has yet to play a full season and has missed 17 games in four years. While his per-game numbers are elite, 85 yards and 0.56 touchdowns since 2023, the inability to stay on the field drags down his fantasy reliability.
Even with added target competition in Houston, Collins remains the top perimeter weapon for C.J. Stroud. If he finally stays healthy, he could easily smash ADP.
The bottom line: Collins brings top-4 WR per-game upside but carries significant durability concerns. At WR8, he's a boom-or-(injury) bust selection who best fits aggressive team builds.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP WR Values
Both of these receivers have upside beyond their ADP, but their paths vary widely. Thomas is set to be the focal point of Jacksonville's offense, but his success depends on Lawrence. Collins has elite per-game production, but injuries make him a gamble.
- Best if QB clicks: Brian Thomas
- Most risk/reward: Nico Collins
If you like these ADP battles, check this out:
For deeper insight into these fantasy football ADP battles, including other wide receivers with breakout potential, be sure to explore RotoWire's full library of fantasy football articles.
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