This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Patriots vs. Jets Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Thursday Night Football, Week 3
For those who like high-scoring games, a Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jets and Patriots will likely end as a letdown. Still, let's try to make some money on the betting side of things with the following three wagers.
Mike Barner's season record: 7-5 (+1.58 units)
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Jets vs. Patriots Betting Odds for Thursday Night Football
Jets: Spread -6 (-110), -260 Moneyline (FanDuel)
Patriots: Spread +6 (-110), +250 Moneyline (BetMGM)
Game Total: 38.5 points (Caesars)
Many rated the Patriots as one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into this season. However, they pulled off an upset of the Bengals in Week 1 and it took overtime for the Seahawks to defeat them in Week 2.
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Jets vs. Patriots Betting Picks This Week
Jacoby Brissett under 27.5 pass attempts (-128 DraftKings) for 1 unit
The Patriots have high hopes for Drake Maye, but Jacoby Brissett remains their starting quarterback for now. He's not a flashy option, but rather a reliable veteran who represents a significant upgrade over Mac Jones. Brissett has taken care of the ball, not throwing an interception in either of their first two games.
Brissett game-manages at this point in his career. The Patriots don't have many weapons at wide receiver, so Brissett has no great options to throw the ball to even if New England wanted to air things out. Brissett has not attempted more than 27 passes in either of his first two games, even though the Patriots went to overtime last week. The Jets allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, so expect the Patriots to remain conservative on offense.
Rhamondre Stevenson over 16.5 rush attempts (+102 FanDuel) for 1 unit
One of the reasons why the Patriots don't want Brissett to throw the ball a lot is because their best offensive player is their running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Injuries limited him to 12 games last year, but he ran for 1,040 yards in 2022. That season, he averages 5.0 yards per carry.
The Patriots have given Stevenson at least 21 carries in both of their games this year. In Week 1, he had 25 carries against the Bengals. The Jets enter tonight compromised up front with Haason Reddick holding out and Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) out for the season. The Patriots should continue to run a lot, so with Stevenson's rush attempts prop coming at plus odds, it looks too good to pass up.
Patriots First Drive Result: PUNT (-145 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
The Jets' defense is their best unit. Even though they gave up 32 points to the 49ers in Week 1, the 49ers only gained eight yards on their first drive before the Jets forced a punt. In Week 2, the Jets held the Titans to a three-and-out on their first drive.
The Patriots did manage a first down on their initial drive in Week 1 against the Bengals, but eventually punted. In Week 2, the Patriots absorbed a sack on their first possession, which forced them to punt without gaining a first down. In a potentially low-scoring game, taking a chance that the Patriots' first drive results in a punt could prove to be profitable.
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction
As surprising as the Patriots have been, they have a disadvantage playing on the road during a short week. If the Jets can grab an early lead, Brissett could have a difficult time helping the Patriots play catchup with his lack of weapons at wide receiver. Look for the Jets to emerge victorious in a low-scoring affair.
