Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Seattle vs. San Francisco

A season that looked like it might have ended with the season-ending injuries to Trey Lance and more recently Jimmy Garoppolo took yet another sharp turn in Week 14, as previous QB3 and Mr. Irrelevant rookie selection Brock Purdy led the 49ers to an emphatic win over Tampa Bay, scoring three times. The rookie will face a tougher test on this short week as the 49ers travel a bit north to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who maybe got caught looking ahead a week when they suffered a bitter home loss to Carolina in Week 14. Now at 7-6, the Seahawks (+3) find their own playoff hopes at risk with another loss especially putting their wildcard hopes in danger. The weather is expected to be cool but otherwise cooperative, but the over/under rests at a modest 43.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Brock Purdy ($9600 DK, $15000 FD) is just a seventh-round pick rookie who entered the year as San Francisco's QB3, but to this point he has appeared composed and his results have certainly been good. This will still be a new test for him as a rookie starter on the road on a short week, and against a divisional rival to boot. Not just that, but the absence of Deebo Samuel makes things a bit more difficult yet. The Kyle Shanahan scheme is certainly favorable and Purdy might have some standout abilities of his own, but if the rookie does well in this game it would be very impressive.

Geno Smith ($10600 DK, $14500 FD) would also impress if he did well in this game, though as a veteran starter he has fewer reasons for excuse. That's the case even against a 49ers defense much more feared than the Seahawks one. The 49ers are beat up at corner and with wideouts like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett there is enough ammo for Smith to work with. Not just that, but the 49ers will likely stall the Seahawks run game and leave more slack than usual for Smith as a passer. Smith will need to make throws downfield and toward the sideline with Fred Warner erasing the middle of the field, but that wideout duo (and WR3 Marquise Goodwin) appear capable of doing their part.

RUNNING BACKS

Kenneth Walker ($7600 DK, $12500 FD) has a tough matchup against San Francisco's lethal run defense but at least his ankle injury should not be much of an issue, or at least he's not listed on the injury report. If Purdy struggles at all that could be all Walker needs to pay off on DraftKings in particular, where his price is barely higher than backup Travis Homer ($7000 DK, $9500 FD). Walker needs volume or a short field to pay off in the likely event his efficiency suffers, and a bad game from Purdy would be helpful toward those outcomes.

Christian McCaffrey ($11400 DK, $17500 FD) is always a threat to break the slate, be it a full slate or a single-game showdown, and this setting is no exception. In fact, the absence of Deebo Samuel might make it even more likely in this case, especially with the 49ers presumably looking to give some cover to their rookie quarterback. Whatever slack is left after McCaffrey should be all but declared the property of Jordan Mason ($4800 DK, $7000 FD), who has reliably produced when given opportunities this year. Kyle Juszczyk ($3000 DK, $5500 FD) is a fullback and H-back primarily but is a standout threat from scrimmage within that category.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

With Deebo Samuel out much more of the pass-catching burden falls to Brandon Aiyuk ($8800 DK, $13000 FD), who understandably figures to be one of the most popular picks on the slate in Samuel's absence. The Seattle corners don't have the personnel to track Aiyuk around the field, so even if Purdy posts modest numbers there is a clear way to budget substantial numbers for Aiyuk. George Kittle ($8000 DK, $105000 FD) can easily match or exceed Aiyuk as a pass-catching threat but sometimes sees his usage lag below its full potential because Kittle is so good at making structural contributions to open up possibilities for the players around him. As much as Aiyuk and Kittle are the headliners, one should not disregard Jauan Jennings ($3800 DK, $8500 FD), who should post good numbers if either of Aiyuk or Kittle disappoint. Ray Ray McCloud ($1200 DK, $7500 FD) is interesting as a candidate to play 30-plus snaps, presumably most in a slot role. McCloud is also an excellent pairing consideration with the 49ers DST, as he should return both kicks and punts. The rookie Danny Gray ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is still hanging around as a big-play threat and might need to play 20-plus snaps here. Tyler Kroft ($200 DK, $5000 FD) has seemingly emerged as the backup to Kittle, though it's been to no consequence so far.

Tyler Lockett ($10200 DK, $11500 FD) and DK Metcalf ($10000 DK, $12000 FD) are just about impossible to rank ahead of one or the other, but at least in most cases they both produce to some extent rather than one always producing at the expense of the other in a zero-sum game. Particularly given the strength of the 49ers run defense and their lack of personnel at cornerback, it would make sense for this to be a game where both Lockett and Metcalf produce for their fantasy investors. If not, then some of that production might have been claimed by Marquise Goodwin ($6400 DK, $8000 FD), who has quietly done a great job as Seattle's WR3 this year. The Seahawks tight end rotation is unfortunately deep and varied, making it difficult for any of the otherwise highly competent group of Noah Fant ($4400 DK, $7000 FD), Will Dissly ($2400 DK, $6500 FD) or Colby Parkinson ($1000 DK, $5000 FD) to draw any extended usage but again, all three are capable if given the opportunity.

KICKERS

Jason Myers ($3800 DK, $9000 FD) is quietly a solid kicker, and it's easy enough to picture him providing a useful box score here if the Seahawks play well enough to get into scoring range on offense. It's easy to imagine the Seahawks stalling in the red zone if so, and Myers would likely get field goal opportunities in that scenario. Robbie Gould ($4000 DK, $9500 FD) is reliable from short range but rarely threatens from beyond 50 yards – he might not need the 50-yarders to see ample opportunity in this game, however.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers ($5000 DK, $10000 FD) are about as intimidating as any defense in the league, and the Seattle offense just had a brutal go of it against the lowly Panthers. If the Seahawks play here like they did in that game, then the 49ers defense will indeed have a field day. Geno Smith has generally played under control all year, though, even in difficult circumstances, so the 49ers might need more uncharacteristically poor production from Smith to easily pay off for their fantasy investors here. The Seahawks ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) don't have any obvious angle aside from their moxie and the fact that Purdy is a rookie, nearly undrafted quarterback playing on the road and on a short week.