This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Last Thursday we were treated to a nationally televised game between two divisional rivals that were a combined 2-9-1, and this week we get a new set of divisional foes that are a combined 4-10. However, there is much more excitement this go around, as the Panthers are 2.0-point home favorites against the Falcons in a game with a 51.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook (last week's Giants vs. Eagles game had a 45.0-point total, with the Eagles 4.5-point favorites, which they won 22-21).
There is one huge question heading into Thursday, and that's whether running back Christian McCaffrey ($11,800 DK, $16,500 FD) will return from the ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 2. Not only will many fantasy players gravitate toward him because of his elite floor and ceiling, but it also means we'll see most people ignore Mike Davis ($8,800 DK, $15,000 FD), who has filled in very well as the starter.
QUARTERBACKS
McCaffrey is the most expensive player on both sites, but quarterbacks Matt Ryan ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD) and Teddy Bridgewater ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD) are the next two on DraftKings. Interestingly, Davis is more than both QBs on FanDuel, while wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD) is also more than Bridgewater there.
Everything has been working for the quaterbacks this season, as Ryan comes in with a league-high 2,181 passing yards on 286 attempts (the second-most in the NFL) while Bridgewater is fifth in passing yards (1,930) on the 10th-most attempts.
Last Thursday we were treated to a nationally televised game between two divisional rivals that were a combined 2-9-1, and this week we get a new set of divisional foes that are a combined 4-10. However, there is much more excitement this go around, as the Panthers are 2.0-point home favorites against the Falcons in a game with a 51.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook (last week's Giants vs. Eagles game had a 45.0-point total, with the Eagles 4.5-point favorites, which they won 22-21).
There is one huge question heading into Thursday, and that's whether running back Christian McCaffrey ($11,800 DK, $16,500 FD) will return from the ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 2. Not only will many fantasy players gravitate toward him because of his elite floor and ceiling, but it also means we'll see most people ignore Mike Davis ($8,800 DK, $15,000 FD), who has filled in very well as the starter.
QUARTERBACKS
McCaffrey is the most expensive player on both sites, but quarterbacks Matt Ryan ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD) and Teddy Bridgewater ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD) are the next two on DraftKings. Interestingly, Davis is more than both QBs on FanDuel, while wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD) is also more than Bridgewater there.
Everything has been working for the quaterbacks this season, as Ryan comes in with a league-high 2,181 passing yards on 286 attempts (the second-most in the NFL) while Bridgewater is fifth in passing yards (1,930) on the 10th-most attempts. Bridgewater's 8.2 YPA is very solid, as it's higher than players like Aaron Rodgers (8.0), Patrick Mahomes (7.8), Josh Allen (7.8) and Matthew Stafford (7.7), and he now faces a Falcons defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season thanks to the most passing touchdowns (19), most passing yards (2,411) and highest YPA (8.77). Every quarterback they've faced this season has thrown for at least 313 yards, with that low point actually coming against Bridgewater in Week 5 when he also threw for two touchdowns. He's accounted for multiple scores in three of his last four games, though he may not be that popular because many people could gravitate toward his receivers and/or running backs.
The matchup couldn't be any different for Ryan, as the Panthers have given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, allowing only a single 300-yard passer -- Justin Herbert in Week 3 on 49 attempts) -- and only two have thrown multiple touchdown passes (Kyler Murray in Week 4 and Drew Brees in Week 7). Similar to Bridgewater, it seems more fantasy players will be looking at Ryan's pass catchers, so he could be less popular than what we usually see from a player who has thrown for over 330 yards in back-to-back games. It's odd to think that the quarterbacks could be differential captain/MVP plays, but there's certainly a path because of all the other skill players who could have big games.
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS
Both teams have elite wide receivers, though the Panthers' Robby Anderson ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD) and DJ Moore ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD) aren't nearly as popular as the Falcons' Julio Jones ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD) and Calvin Ridley ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD). However, a quick comparison shows they are closer than the coverage indicates:
| Player | Team | Pos | DK | DK CPT | FD | G | TAR | REC | YDS | TD | AY | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | $9,200 | $13,800 | $10,000 | 7 | 59 | 46 | 640 | 1 | 603 | 9.9 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | WR | $8,200 | $12,300 | $11,000 | 7 | 53 | 31 | 567 | 3 | 613 | 11.6 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | $14,000 | 7 | 64 | 40 | 615 | 6 | 972 | 15.4 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | $13,000 | 5 | 39 | 31 | 447 | 2 | 444 | 11.1 |
Targets Per Week | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | 59 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | 53 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 64 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 39 | 12 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 10 | 9 |
Ridley has been the most productive of the group (some of that comes from Jones missing two games) but that's why he's the most expensive on both sites. Given their success against quarterbacks, it's can't be too surprising that the Panthers have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, allowing only a single touchdown to the position in five of seven games, while blanking them in the other two. Admittedly, some of this is due to their terrible run defense, which we'll get into shortly, and if the Falcons can get away with using their running game more then there has to be some limited expectations for Ridley and Jones, who have receiving yards props on DraftKings Sportsbook of 73.5 and 70.5, respectively, while Anderson and Moore are at 75.5 and 67.5.
They are obviously not the only pass catchers in this game, but it drops off pretty quickly with the Panthers, with Curtis Samuel ($5,400 FD, $8,000 FD) the next popular non-running back, but he's hardly a down-field threat, as we see with his 5.5 aDOT. Tight end Ian Thomas ($2,600 DK, $5,500 FD) is the next-highest, and he has 12 targets this season. The Falcons side is certainly deeper, with Russell Gage ($4,200 DK, $7,500 FD) actually getting more targets than Jones on a cumulative basis, but we have to remember he has a two-game advantage. Gage's work out of the slot is helpful against some teams, and it's interesting that tight end Hayden Hurst ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD) has a higher aDOT (9.4 vs. 7.8) on his 39 targets, the same as Jones (again, two extra games) and only four fewer than Gage. Olamide Zaccheaus ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) was a thing when Jones was sidelined, but he is much more of a long-shot these days.
Here are some fuller breakdowns of the pass catchers in this game (all columns are sortable):
| Player | Team | Pos | DK | DK CPT | FD | G | TAR | REC | YDS | TD | AY | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | $14,000 | 7 | 64 | 40 | 615 | 6 | 972 | 15.4 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | $13,000 | 5 | 39 | 31 | 447 | 2 | 444 | 11.1 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | $9,200 | $13,800 | $10,000 | 7 | 59 | 46 | 640 | 1 | 603 | 9.9 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | WR | $8,200 | $12,300 | $11,000 | 7 | 53 | 31 | 567 | 3 | 613 | 11.6 |
| Hayden Hurst | ATL | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | $9,500 | 7 | 39 | 25 | 295 | 3 | 378 | 9.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | CAR | WR | $5,400 | $8,100 | $8,000 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 231 | 0 | 159 | 5.5 |
| Russell Gage | ATL | WR | $4,200 | $6,300 | $7,500 | 7 | 43 | 31 | 343 | 1 | 335 | 7.8 |
| Ian Thomas | CAR | TE | $2,600 | $3,900 | $5,500 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 85 | 7.1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | $6,000 | 7 | 22 | 14 | 150 | 0 | 237 | 10.8 |
| Brandon Zylstra | CAR | WR | $400 | $600 | $5,000 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Christian Blake | ATL | WR | $200 | $300 | $5,500 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 85 | 12.1 |
| Brandon Powell | ATL | WR | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 57 | 8.1 |
| Luke Stocker | ATL | TE | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Jaeden Graham | ATL | TE | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Chris Manhertz | CAR | TE | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 17 | 3.4 |
| Pharoh Cooper | CAR | WR | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Targets Per Week | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 64 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 39 | 12 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 10 | 9 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | 59 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| DJ Moore | ATL | 53 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Hayden Hurst | ATL | 39 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| Curtis Samuel | ATL | 29 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | - | 6 |
| Russell Gage | ATL | 43 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Ian Thomas | ATL | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | 22 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Blake | ATL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | ATL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Stocker | ATL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaeden Graham | ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | ATL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The tight ends actually seem like they could be forgotten considering how many wide receivers and running backs are viable, and while the Panthers have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, they've allowed touchdowns to the position in three of their last four, coming against the Cardinals, Bears and Saints, so it's not like they've been burned by guys like George Kittle, Travis Kelce or Chris Herndon Mark Andrews. The yardage hasn't been great, but touchdowns are certainly valuable in single-game fantasy formats.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have been killed by tight ends this season, allowing eight touchdowns in seven games, including at least one score in five games, and it's a similar story in that they haven't faced the most elite group, giving up two touchdowns to Jimmy Graham in Week 3 and three to Robert Tonyan in Week 4. It's tough to get excited about Thomas from a volume perspective, but the matchup certainly works in his favor Thursday night.
Ultimately, we'll probably see Ridley, Jones, Anderson and Moore on plenty of fantasy teams, and lots will use them as captain/MVP, so if you're really looking to differentiate, it'll likely have to be with guys lower down the depth chart or the tight ends.
RUNNING BACKS
As mentioned previously, McCaffrey's return is huge because of what it does for his own popularity but also that of Davis. Neither team is great against the run (in fact, the Panthers are awful), which is why fantasy players could just skip the elite wide receivers and focus on the backfields. Davis had his best fantasy game of the season in Week 5 against the Falcons, rushing 16 times for 89 yards while also catching nine of 10 targets for 60 receiving yards and a touchdown, which came a week after they allowed 14 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown to the Packers' running backs. Importantly for Davis, or McCaffrey, only one team has allowed more running back receptions than the Falcons, and no one has allowed more receiving touchdowns to the position. The biggest difficulty will be if McCaffrey is healthy enough to play but gets eased back in while still utilizing Davis, a situation that could be very positive to the team but would be killer on fantasy rosters.
While the matchup is positive for McCaffrey and/or Davis, it doesn't get much better for Todd Gurley ($8,400 DK, $12,000 FD), as the Panthers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including the second-most rushing touchdowns, most receptions, most receiving yards, fifth-most rushing yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average. Gurley has seen some pretty good usage in the past two games, rushing 43 times, and he even scored two touchdowns last week against Detroit, including one he wasn't supposed to score. As noted by Jerry Donabedian in this week's Hidden Stat Line, Gurley posted a season-high in snap share, including 17 of 19 snaps in the fourth quarter, giving us little reason to think he'll lose significant work to Brian Hill ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) or Ito Smith ($800 DK, $6,500 FD) unless he suffers an injury. And in that case, Hill seems like the clear choice between the two. Gurley doesn't participate in the passing game much, but he's the dominant red-zone option out of the backfield and will likely be less popular than the other Falcons' offensive weapons, making him a solid differential, including at captain, even though his matchup is one of the best in the game.
| Player | Team | Pos | DK | DK CPT | FD | G | TAR | REC | YDS | TD | AY | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | $16,500 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Mike Davis | CAR | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | $15,000 | 7 | 41 | 37 | 233 | 2 | -34 | -0.8 |
| Todd Gurley | ATL | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | $12,000 | 7 | 20 | 13 | 77 | 0 | -2 | -0.1 |
| Brian Hill | ATL | RB | $2,200 | $3,300 | $7,000 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 102 | 0 | 19 | 1.2 |
| Ito Smith | ATL | RB | $800 | $1,200 | $6,500 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Alex Armah | CAR | FB | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 2.0 |
| Trenton Cannon | CAR | RB | $200 | $300 | $6,500 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 |
| Keith Smith | ATL | FB | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Player | Team | Pos | DK | DK CPT | FD | G | RUSH | YDS | TD | RZ RUS | IN5 RUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | $16,500 | 2 | 41 | 156 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| Mike Davis | CAR | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | $15,000 | 7 | 71 | 284 | 2 | 17 | 4 |
| Todd Gurley | ATL | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | $12,000 | 7 | 122 | 485 | 7 | 33 | 10 |
| Brian Hill | ATL | RB | $2,200 | $3,300 | $7,000 | 7 | 37 | 164 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Ito Smith | ATL | RB | $800 | $1,200 | $6,500 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Alex Armah | CAR | FB | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Trenton Cannon | CAR | RB | $200 | $300 | $6,500 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Smith | ATL | FB | $200 | $300 | $5,000 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Captaining/MVPing McCaffrey, if he's cleared to play, is riskier than ever, as we don't know what his workload will be, and he's the most expensive player on the slate. It certainly seems possible that Davis eats into McCaffrey's work even if he's fully healthy, so he'll likely need to score a touchdown or two to make up for the lack of volume. Then again, if McCaffrey is ruled out, we know that Davis should get a vast majority of the backfield opportunities, including in the passing game, and he could surely be a popular captain/MVP option because he's cheaper than the pass catchers.
KICKERS
A somewhat high-scoring game with a plethora of good fantasy options won't have many people looking at Joey Slye ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) or Younghoe Koo ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) even though they've been very productive fantasy players this season. Koo scored at least 8.0 fantasy points in every game before only 2.0 last weekend, and that included 20.0 against Minnesota in Week 6. Meanwhile, Slye has scored at least 7.0 in all but one game, topping out at 15.0 against the Chargers in Week 3. Priced around guys like Gage, Thomas and the defenses on DraftKings, GPP players will probably gravitate toward the ones who can actually score touchdowns, while on FanDuel they're competing in a salary tier with Samuel, Gage and Hurst, the the latter of whom is certainly more exciting.
That being said, those guys may have higher ceilings, but the kickers have shown more consistency in reaching double-digit fantasy points, and they could certainly put up scores that are helpful in tournaments if the game doesn't have as many touchdowns as expected.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Both defenses have been pretty poor from a fantasy perspective, so they are likely to be overlooked Thursday night, especially since the game has some pretty clear paths to offensive explosions. With that said, the Panthers ($3,400 DK) and Falcons ($3,200 DK) offer the ideal differential options because if the game gets sloppy or the touchdown variance works in their favor, they could be extremely helpful as less popular plays.
