Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Colts vs. Titans

The Titans look to extend their undefeated streak in the AFC South in an expected close game against the Colts, as Tennessee is a 1.0-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook but a 1.0-point underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday morning. After starting 5-0, the Titans are losers of two of their last three, but they did beat the Bears 24-17 last week, while the Colts, losers of half of their last four games, lost 24-10 to the Ravens in Week 9. Even though a close game is expected, there should be some decent fantasy points available with a 48.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The makeup of the two teams is quite different, certainly where they prefer to focus on offense, which should create more lineup diversification because of the different paths fantasy players can take with their builds.

QUARTERBACKS

Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill ($11,200 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, and while hasn't been that prolific in terms of passing yards this season, he's making up for it with touchdowns. His 1,981 passing yards are the 17th-most in the league, but only four players have thrown more than his 19 touchdown passes. His popularity may not be overly high as he faces a Colts defense that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including one or zero passing touchdowns in five of their last seven games. And while Tannehill's recent stats don't look great because he's faced some tough defenses, only one is statistically better than what he'll face Thursday.

The matchup for Philip Rivers ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD) is much easier, as the Titans have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, including multiple touchdown passes in every game since Week 1. That is certainly a plus for Rivers, though he's only thrown multiple touchdown passes twice this season, including zero in half of his last four games. He did throw three in each of the other two, so there's certainly a path to a solid fantasy game against Tennessee. Given that the Colts' backfield is a bit of a mess, we could see Rivers as a popular path to their offense, especially with how much he has been spreading around his targets, but it doesn't seem like we'll have a very exciting game if he's the captain/MVP that helps people win GPPs.

RUNNING BACKS

While he's been losing a few opportunities to his backups lately, Derrick Henry ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) is still getting significant work, rushing at least 18 times in every game this season. It seems no matter how they're playing, including falling behind, the Titans are still doing everything they can to get the ball in Henry's hands, as his 105.4 rushing yards per game are the second-most in the league, and only two players have scored more rushing touchdowns. That is the positive result of giving him 21 more rushing attempts than the next-highest player in the NFL, but it also gives fantasy players some confidence that the guy they roster will get the ball.

D'Onta Foreman ($600 DK, not on FanDuel) has seen his role increase lately, with five carries in each of the past two games, rushing for 37 yards in Week 8 against Cincinnati and 11 yards in Week 9 against Chicago. It's not a lot of work, but any touches Foreman gets are touches Henry doesn't. The same applies to Jeremy McNichols ($200 DK, $5,500 FD), whose 23 carries for 147 yards are the second-most on the team and only 159 carries and 726 yards behind Henry. Foreman's recent work has taken less away from Henry and more from McNichols, who has rushed six times for 59 yards in the past two games. Maybe more importantly, the three backs combined for zero targets last week and only two the week before, which is why the number of carries is so important.

For as clear as the Titans' backfield is, the Colts are the opposite, as Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) started last week only to see Jordan Wilkins ($5,400 DK, $10,500 FD) lead the team in carries in each of the past two. Complicating things further, Nyheim Hines ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD) leads the backfield in targets, including eight in the past two games, a span that saw Taylor have four passes thrown his way and Wilkins three. Here's Jerry Donabedian on the situation from this week's Hidden Stat Line:

• Taylor got the start and took two carries for 14 yards on the opening drive. Wilkins then came in for the second drive, but Taylor finished that series with a pair of carries inside the 10-yard line, including a one-yard TD.
• On the third drive, Taylor coughed up a fumble — his first in the NFL — that was returned for a touchdown. That was at the end of the first quarter, and he then played only five of 20 snaps in the second quarter and six of 31 in the second half.
• Excluding the first quarter, Hines played 20 of 51 snaps (39 percent), with Wilkins getting 19 (37 percent) and Taylor only 11 (22 percent).
• Wilkins, Taylor and Hines are all below 4.0 YPC for the year. Taylor has been disappointing, no doubt, but his 3.9 YPC is actually best of the group, and he's also caught 20 of 21 targets for 178 yards (8.5 YPT). Where's Marlon Mack when you need him?

So, what do we make of this? It seems the team will let Taylor get the first crack at getting hot, but he'll also have a short leash if he doesn't because Wilkins has been effective recently. Hines is definitely going to have to do something in the passing game to be an important fantasy contributor, but he showed two weeks ago that it's possible, rushing five times for eight yards but also catching three of five targets for 54 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Wilkins figures to be an interesting option for many fantasy players because he's considerably cheaper than Taylor, while those who haven't gotten burned by Taylor countless times this season could turn to him with the expectation (hope?) that he can actually perform well right away and keep getting touches throughout.

The benefit for the Colts' running backs is that the Titans have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the position, including multiple touchdowns in each of the past two games, but you just have to make sure you roster the guy who actually scores those touchdowns (duh). On the other hand, the Colts have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, allowing more than 90 yards to the position just once and giving up only four rushing touchdowns this season. That could theoretically push Henry's popularity down, though he's the easiest path to the Titans' offense, so it's not like he will be under-rostered.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

One of the benefits of not throwing to your running backs is that the wide receivers and tight ends have less competition for targets, which feels like a plus for those trying to decide whether its worth paying up for A.J. Brown ($10,400 DK, $15,000 FD), the third-most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel. There's no denying Brown is the top receiving option for the Titans, leading them in targets (48), receptions (31), receiving yards (457), receiving touchdowns (six) and air yards (482), and he's failed to score a touchdown just once this season, which was back in Week 1 against Denver. Since then, he's been targeted at least seven times in five straight games (he missed Weeks 2 and 3 due to injury and the Titans had an adjusted bye in Week 4), and he broke 100 yards twice in that span. The Colts defense has been very good this year, though they did allow over 200 receiving yards to wide receivers in two of the last three games, so there will certainly be fantasy players who are fully on board with Brown continuing his strong play.

No. 2 wideout Corey Davis ($7,800 DK, $11,000 FD) is finally starting to look like the solid player most expected early in his career, with two 100-yard outings already this season, as well as three games with a touchdown. Then again, he's coming off a game when he was completely erased by the Bears, failing to catch any of his three targets after getting 10 balls thrown his way in each of the previous two games, including eight catches for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 9. Despite the relatively tough defense he'll face Thursday night, there could be some fantasy players who try to fade Brown in the hopes the defense really focuses on him, which should allow Davis to get open. While Brown leads the team in basically every receiving category, Davis is second and cheaper on both sites. 

Behind those two will be a combination of options, with Kalif Raymond ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) potentially playing more Thursday because Adam Humphries has been ruled out because of a concussion. Raymond is mostly the big-play threat, as his 17.6 aDOT leads the team, though with only 12 targets, including one in the past three games, it's tough to get overly excited. Then again, he doesn't need many opportunities to make an impact if he can catch a deep ball.

Humphries' absence could actually open up more snaps for tight ends Jonnu Smith ($7,000 DK, $10,000 FD) and Anthony Firkser ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD), who have combined for 13 targets in the past two games, including six for the latter just last week. Firkser had a monster game in Week 6 against Houston, catching eight of nine targets for 113 yards and a touchdown, but he's failed to reach even 50 yards in any other game. Meanwhile, Smith has broken 50 yards twice this season, but he does get enough red-zone looks to be a viable touchdown play, as he's scored six times, tying him with Brown for the team lead (three came in the first two games, however). Tight ends are almost always basic touchdown plays, and if one of Firkser or Smith score Thursday, it'll be the first touchdown allowed to the position by the Colts this year.

If you're looking for a true long-shot, Cameron Batson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) could be options, but the only reason to consider them is that no one else is likely to look their way, not because they profile as good plays.

The Colts' pass-catching group will look a bit different than last week, as T.Y. Hilton ($5,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is back after recovering from a groin injury. Hilton has been pretty awful this season, twice getting more than five targets while still looking for his first game with at least 70 yards or a touchdown. Even though he's been their top wideout for the past few years, Rivers hasn't developed any kind of chemistry to make us more confident that Hilton will be able to break out Thursday night against a Titans defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Wideouts have accounted for more than 200 receiving yards in all but two Titans games this season, and while there will certainly be some interest in the Colts' group, Hilton doesn't seem like the automatic starting point like he used to be.

Zach Pascal ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD) has been the most active recently, with eight catches on 12 targets for 99 yards in the past two games, and he's had at least six targets in each of his last four. He actually leads the team in targets (40) and receiving yards (297), though that doesn't say much when he hasn't even reached 60 yards in a game this year. If you're looking for upside, Marcus Johnson ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) could be the guy because he leads the team in air yards (362) and aDOT (15.7), and he's had at least seven targets in two of the past three games, a span that included a five-catch, 108-yards outing in Week 6 against Cincinnati. Otherwise, you could try your luck with Michael Pittman ($4,400 DK, $8,000 FD), who had seven targets last week, though he only caught four for a season-high 56 yards. 

The long-shot play who might be interesting is DeMichael Harris ($1,800 DK, $5,500 FD), who caught all four of his targets last week for 27 yards while also rushing twice on jet sweeps for 28. According to coach Frank Reich, Harris was used in place of Hines on those plays to keep the defense guessing, and his price is certainly low enough that he should be included in the player pool even for those who make only a handful of lineups.

With Jack Doyle (concussion) ruled out again, Trey Burton ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD) could garner some more interest from fantasy players, especially after getting four targets in each of the past two games, though four catches for 15 yards isn't making us sprint to roster him. Maybe more importantly, he had short rushing touchdowns in Weeks 6 and 8 (they were off in 7), so he definitely has a little more touchdown upside than a standard tight end in his target range. His viability increases if Mo Alie-Cox ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD) doesn't play because of the knee injury that has him officially questionable, though he is expected to play. Alie-Cox had a huge game in Week 2, catching five of six targets for 111 yards, and he then scored a touchdown in each of the two subsequent weeks, but it's been mostly down from there, catching six of seven targets for 80 yards in the past two games combined. He's fine, but Burton seems more likely to make an impact.

In terms of captains/MVPs from the pass catching group, Brown figures to be the most popular because of his explosive upside, while Davis could be an interesting differential. Given the spread-out nature of the Colts' passing game, it's tough to see any of their wide receivers or tight ends being overly popular in the multiplier positions, which obviously gives them solid leverage against the field.

KICKERS

The non-dominance of a single receiver for Indianapolis, as well as the decent usage of the Titans' wide receivers and tight ends, could make fantasy players overlook the kickers because they're generally in the same price range as guys like Pittman, Firkser, Burton and Hines. In fact, Hilton is only $500 more than both Rodrigo Blankenship ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Stephen Gostkowski ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) on FanDuel, and given his big-play potential (likely on a short pass that he takes to the house), he surely profiles as a better GPP play.

From a floor perspective, it's tough to argue that the kickers aren't safer than the guys they are surrounded by salary-wise, so the expectation is that they should be more popular in cash games since the game total is high enough that fantasy players won't be rushing to the kickers.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Colts ($4,200 DK) defense has been very good this season, though not as much from a fantasy perspective, as they forced multiple turnovers in just two of their last five games, a span that also saw them record more than two sacks once. The Titans ($3,600 DK) have also struggled scoring fantasy points this season, though they did have a fumble recovery return for a touchdown last week, which came after they scored minus-1.0 points against the Bengals, their second negative outing in the past four games. Facing Rivers could make some people go with the Titans defense, though he's been safer with the ball this season than last, so the upside isn't quite as enticing. If anything, the variance of the position should always keep them in the viable player pool, but that's more so from a GPP standpoint than cash games.