This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
We have another inspiring Thursday Night Football matchup to kick off Week 15, with the Raiders and Chargers squaring off as a pair of 5-8 teams. Even in a relatively lackluster playoff race for the last two seeds in the AFC, both teams are all but out of the race and are now set to play without key stars in the matchup. Put that together and we have a game total of 34.5 at both DK and FD Sportsbooks with the Raiders either a three or 3.5-point favorite. That leaves the implied total at roughly 19 for the Raiders and 15.5 for the Chargers.
Quarterback
Aidan O'Connell ($9,600 DK/$13,000 FD) remains under center for the Raiders despite some rumors bubbling that he'd be benched. O'Connell has failed to record multiple touchdowns in six of his seven appearances this season. He has yet to reach 14 DK points and has been held to single-digit points on four occasions. The only positive to note is that the Chargers have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but that's not enough to make up for O'Connell's incompetency running this offense.
Things aren't likely to be much better on the Los Angeles side of the ball. Easton Stick ($9,400 DK/$13,000 FD) is set to make his first career start in the NFL with Justin Herbert (finger) out for the season. He's an unknown, but he did manage 7.5 yards per attempt in relief of Herbert in Week 14 and also had success in the preseason. This isn't the preseason, and the Raiders are actually a tough matchup, holding quarterbacks to 15.5 points per game on DK and 15.2 on FD.
This is a game where the quarterbacks can comfortably be faded, but for those who want to roster a quarterback Stick would be my choice.
Running Back
The hits keep coming at running back. Josh Jacobs ($10,200 DK/$14,500 FD) is questionable with a quad injury and hasn't practiced in any capacity this week. If he plays and is healthy enough to handle a full snap count (that seems unlikely even if he's active), he has a strong chance of leading all skill-position players in yards. It certainly seems like he won't play, however, which will open value in the Las Vegas backfield. Ameer Abdullah ($4,800 DK/$7,500 FD) is the next highest-priced Raiders running back on DK, but he has only 20 touches this season. Fourteen of those have been receptions, so if Jacobs is out, Abdullah should have a role as a pass catcher if nothing else. The prices are flipped on FD, where Zamir White ($3,000 DK/$10,000 FD) is significantly more expensive. He has 20 rushing attempts this season, so if usage remains consistent, White could be the early down back with Abdullah in on third down and in the hurry-up offense.
There's more clarity in Los Angeles. There have been threats to lighten Austin Ekeler's ($11,000 DK/$14,000 FD) workload, but he got a fairly normal 15 touches in Week 14 and totaled 100 yards with a touchdown. The Raiders have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this year, so it's a good spot for him to produce again. That's particularly true with Stick under center, who could use Ekeler as an easy dump-off option. Isaiah Spiller ($3,800 DK/$6,500 FD) worked marginally ahead of Joshua Kelley ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) last week. Kelley's price is prohibitive on DK. If Jacobs is out, both players can be safely ignored, as White and Abudallah represent better value. If Jacobs is in, Spiller could be a punt play, but not a particularly exciting one. Given the lack of star power in this game, punts also aren't likely to be necessary in most builds.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Davante Adams ($11,200 DK/$12, 500 FD) rivals Ekeler as the skill-position player of the game. He has an impressive 128 targets, with a 2.08 yards-per-route-run rate. Given the context of the offense, that's pretty impressive. The problem is his lack of touchdowns, as he has only since Week 4. As a result, he has a strong floor, but minimal ceiling. I'd side with Ekeler, even paying the premium on FD. Jakobi Meyers ($8,600 DK/$11,000 FD) has really taken a hit from the benching of Jimmy Garoppolo. In five games with Garoppolo, he averaged 17.42 PPR points and 14.52 half PPR points per game. With O'Connell, those numbers have slipped to 11.06 and 9.06, respectively. Like Adams, he's consistently involved in the offense and has a solid floor. At his relatively discounted price, he's preferable to Adams on paper. Hunter Renfrow ($4,000 DK/$8,000 FD) rounds out three-receivers sets, and he's a short-yardage target. He has at least three catches in each of his last three games, but he hasn't topped 46 yards in that span. On DK, he's interesting if Jacobs plays, knocking out White and Abdullah as interesting options.
Things are ugly in Los Angeles. Keenan Allen (heel) is out, leaving Joshua Palmer ($6,200 DK/$5,000 FD) as the receiver. Palmer is returning from a knee injury that has held him out since Week 8, so there's some risk. However, if the Chargers can move the ball through the air, Palmer is likely to have something to do with it, and on FD he's priced exceptionally well. Quentin Johnston ($5,400 DK/$10,000 FD) has had a bad rookie season, but he shouldn't be dismissed in this spot. He ran a season-high 47 routes in Week 14, and he should get more involved from a target perspective with Allen sidelined. Alex Erickson ($1,000 DK/$5,500 FD) should operate as the third receiver. He ran 32 routes in Week 14 as opposed to 13 for Jalen Guyton ($1,400 DK/$7,000 DK). Erickson is a good punt play for those who build lineups with a top-heavy approach.
The matchup may be surprising, as the Chargers are the more vulnerable secondary statistically. The Raiders are boom/bust, however, so there's no reason to shy away from a matchup perspective.
At tight end, Gerald Everett ($5,200 DK/$8,500 FD) has at least four catches in each of his last three games and has averaged 42 receiving yards in that span, and he could see more targets in the absence of Allen. Typically, that would make him a good value, but with the cheap options available he's slightly less appealing. Michael Mayer ($3,200 DK/$7,500 FD) has been inconsistent, though this could be a good spot for him because the Chargers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
Kickers
Daniel Carlson ($4,600 DK/$9,500 FD) is one of the more accurate kickers in the league, and he's also had fairly consistent opportunity. Since beginning the season by making one field goal in five consecutive games, he's made multiple field goals in five of eight games. Cameron Dicker ($5,000 DK/$9,000 FD) has had less consistent opportunity, making one or fewer field goals in three of his last five games. Given all the value options and the low total, neither kicker is particularly appealing.
Defense/Special Teams
Neither the Chargers ($4,400 DK/$8,500 FD) nor Raiders ($4,200 DK/$9,000 FD) are all that effective in creating turnovers. However, the Chargers average the second-most sacks per game and the Raiders have turned the ball over at the second-highest rate in the league this season. That puts the L.A. defense in a spot to put up points on paper.
