Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cardinals vs. 49ers

The undefeated 49ers host the up-tempo Cardinals on Thursday night, a game with fairly low 42.5-point total but a significant 10.5-point spread in favor of San Francisco. Prior to last week's 31-9 loss to the Saints, the Cardinals had scored at least 26 points in three straight games, though they came against the Bengals, Falcons and Giants; not exactly a murderer's row of defenses. Struggling against the Saints isn't surprising given their strong defensive unit, one that isn't as good as the 49ers', which is why the total is low.

Meanwhile, the 49ers put up 51 points last weekend against Carolina, the fourth time this season they scored at least 31. Their implied team total of 26.5 comes against a Cardinals defense that's allowed at least 21 points in every game this season, including at least 27 in five of eight. Given the expected score, fantasy players are likely to focus more on San Francisco than Arizona, though the latter has a couple players who could be considered.

QUARTERBACKS

The two quarterbacks couldn't be much different, as the Cardinals use Kyler Murray ($9,800 DK, $15,000 FD) as a major component to their passing (duh) and running game. Murray's 36.5 pass attempts per game this season are the seventh-highest in the league among quarterbacks with more than two starts, while Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,400 DK, $15,500 FD) has 27 quarterbacks ahead of his 27.0 pass attempts per game. The volume is understandably not there for Garappolo, who has finished with fewer than 200 passing yards in four of seven starts while also throwing for one or zero touchdowns in four games. On the plus side, no team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season than the Cardinals, who have given up multiple passing touchdowns in six of eight games, including four with at least three. You can't really ask for a better matchup for a quarterback than home against Arizona, but the 49ers haven't shown a need to use Garoppolo enough for him to have a monster game Thursday night.

Meanwhile, Murray's fantasy returns have been fairly consistent this season, even if he failed to throw for a touchdown five times, including four of his last five games. He throws plenty of passes, but he's often been able to make up for his lack of passing success by running the ball, as only the Ravens' Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards (576 to 279) and only Jackson and the Bills' Josh Allen (53) have rushed more times than Murray's 51. The 49ers haven't faced a quarterback with Murray's running ability this season, but they've also absolutely punished those they have faced, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position, with all five of their passing touchdowns allowed coming in the first three weeks of the season. Asking for the perfect matchup gets Garoppolo the Cardinals, but Murray gets the total opposite. Quarterbacks always get some captain/MVP consideration, but it seems like there are better upside options.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

The Cardinals receivers have been active in terms of targets this season, but the overall lack of production has been frustrating, to say the least. Given the full point per reception on DraftKings, the receivers make a little more sense there, but relying on touchdowns has been tough on FanDuel, with Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000 DK, $8,500 FD) the most prolific of the group, catching 38 of 59 targets for 447 yards and two touchdowns. All but the touchdowns lead the team, as do his 519 air yards; however, in classic Fitzgerald fashion, he has just an 8.8 aDOT that's the fifth-highest on the team. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk ($7,200 DK, $11,500 FD) is second in all those categories, catching 32 of 48 targets for 321 yards in five games, posting a solid 426 air yards and decent 9.3 aDOT. While Fitzgerald has been an accumulator for most of the season, failing to get even nine targets in a game since Week 2, Kirk caught eight of 11 targets for 79 yards just last week against the Saints, his third game this season with at least 11 targets. Given the additional use, it's unsurprising he's more expensive on both sites, with a sizable difference on FanDuel despite zero touchdowns. Those two have mostly dominated the wide receiver looks from Murray, even with Damiere Byrd ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD) now back to playing at least 80 percent of snaps in the past two games following a hamstring injury. On the plus side, Bryd's 20.7 aDOT is the second-highest on the team, but he is still looking for his first game with 65 receiving yards or a touchdown. 

A hodgepodge of guys follow the top three, with KeeSean Johnson ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD), Pharoh Cooper ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Trent Sherfield ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) and Andy Isabella ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) rounding out the rest of the depth chart. Johnson's best game came back in Week 1 and his production steadily declined to the point where he was a healthy inactive last week against the Saints. Meanwhile, Cooper got some additional playing time while Kirk was injured, but that upside is all but gone now (and wasn't high to begin with), while Sherfield and Isabella have combined to catch six of 13 targets for 88 yards, though the former at least has 186 air yards and a team-high 16.9 aDOT.  You could make the argument he's the only real downfield threat, but you also have to acknowledge he has yet to catch more than one pass in a game this season. The tight ends don't produce much enthusiasm either, as Charles Clay ($2,800 DK, $6,500 FD) and Maxx Williams ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) are barely acknowledged by Murray, with Williams blocking on 36.5 percent of snaps while Clay has only been targeted 14 times all season, catching 11 for 158 yards.

While the Cardinals barely use their tight ends in the passing game, the total opposite is the case with San Francisco, who relies heavily on George Kittle ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD), the most expensive non-QB on DraftKings and the second-most on FanDuel. Kittle leads the team in targets (49), receptions (40), receiving yards (462) and air yards (303), and while he has only one receiving touchdown (which co-leads the team), he's had three others wiped out by penalties, which you already knew if you read Jerry Donabedian's Week 8 Hidden Stat Line article. Additionally, the Cardinals have been absolutely torched by tight ends this season, allowing at least one touchdown in all but two games, which came against the Bengals and Saints. Admittedly, they've played some teams with excellent tight ends, but giving up big yards and touchdowns to guys like Will Dissly, Greg Olsen and T.J. Hockenson should surely make us feel good about Kittle. Unfortunately, it'll make everyone feel good, and there's a decent chance Kittle is one of the highest-owned players on both sites, with plenty of captain/MVP picks.

The wide receiver group is a bit interesting because they seem to have talent but they barely use it. Recently acquired Emmanuel Sanders ($8,600 DK, $11,000 FD) was targeted five times last week in his team debut, and while that's not overly special (it was two fewer than Kittle), only two other players (not including Kittle) have reached that mark this season: Deebo Samuel ($5,200 DK, $9,500 FD) and Dante Pettis ($3,200 DK, $5,500 FD), who have 18 and 10 receptions, respectively. Samuel seems to be the no. 3 option among the non-running backs, but the volume just isn't really there, even with his two carries for 29 yards and a touchdown last week to go with his three catches on three targets for 19 receiving yards. The long touchdown upside just isn't that strong, with Samuel's 5.9 aDOT and Pettis' 6.8 the eighth and fifth best on the team, respectively. If you're looking for real upside, Marquise Goodwin ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD) could provide that, as he comes in with a team-high 14.1 aDOT, but getting 226 air yards from 16 targets in six games isn't overly impressive. Still, he's an absolute burner and at least gets some real looks as opposed to guys like Richie James ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Kendrick Bourne ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD), who are second and third on the team in aDOT. It feels a little bit like "pick your poison," as any of these guys can go off, but they are all more likely not to. Strangely, Sanders is the most reliable after Kittle, but the pass catchers are probably not the group you want to focus on from the 49ers' offense (other than Kittle, of course).

RUNNING BACKS

The San Francisco backfield has been the real ball-moving unit this season, but the difficulty is landing on the right guys. Matt Breida ($6,600 DK, $10,000 FD) leads the team with 84 carries for 446 yards, while Tevin Coleman ($9,000 DK, $14,000 FD) trails in both categories with his 71 for 332, but he leads the team with five rushing touchdowns, including three last weekend. Additionally, Raheem Mostert ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) has gotten a few opportunities, rushing 54 times for 309 yards and a touchdown, and we can't forget about Jeff Wilson ($2,000 DK, $5,000 FD), who leads the team in carries inside the five-yard line and 10-yard line and led the team in rushing touchdowns before last week. Wilson's four touchdowns came equally in Weeks 2 and 3, and he is a clear fourth on the list in terms of potential opportunities Thursday, which certainly contributes to his salary being the lowest of the group. Additionally, Breida is questionable to play because of an ankle injury suffered last week, which helped Coleman get more production than usual, while Mostert is also questionable because of a knee injury. Wilson's value would certainly grow if Breida and Mostert can't play, though Coleman's would explode. 

Interestingly, Coleman rushed for 105 yards and three touchdowns last week on only 11 carries, the fewest he had since Week 1, and he's still not a big target in the passing game; then again, no one really is other than Kittle. Ultimately, it is definitely viable to roster both Breida and Coleman together, or Coleman and Mostert if Breida is out, or Coleman and Wilson if Breida and Mostert sit, as you'll at least be trying to lock up most of the carries from a team that likes to run the ball a lot. The Cardinals haven't been nearly as bad against the run than the pass this season, but the 49ers have shown that they prefer to establish the run and see what happens from there. 

The Cardinals' backfield situation is about as messy and it can get, with David Johnson ($8,200 DK, $12,500 FD) questionable because of an ankle injury that held him out last weekend, while backup Chase Edmonds has already been ruled out because of a hamstring injury. Johnson practiced Wednesday for the first time in nearly two weeks, so even if he's cleared to play, he's certainly not 100 percent. That leaves us with the triumvirate of Kenyan Drake ($6,800 DK, $11,500 FD), who joined the team via trade from the Dolphins on Monday, Zach Zenner ($3,000 DK, $10,500 FD), who played 19 snaps last week and rushed once for zero yards and caught his lone target for 13 receiving yards, and Alfred Morris ($2,200 DK $9,000 FD), who hasn't worn a uniform yet this season. Needless to say, there isn't a ton of optimism about the Cardinals' backfield if Johnson doesn't play, though Drake seems to have the best shot since he's, you know, played more than 20 snaps this season. God bless you if you see a path where one of these guys is worth of captain/MVP consideration, but I am failing to see it.

KICKERS

There are four players on the Cardinals who are averaging more than 10 fantasy points per game on FanDuel this season, and only three might be active Thursday if Johnson is unable to play. Frustratingly for Cardinals fans, one is kicker Zane Gonzalez ($6,000 DK, $9,000 FD), who has scored at least 10 in four straight games, and at least nine in every game but one this season. The Cardinals' offense does a decent job of moving the ball down field, but it doesn't score touchdowns enough, leaving multiple opportunities for Gonzalez to pad his stats. With the 49ers' defense expected to make it even harder on the Cardinals than what they've seen previously, Gonzalez could absolutely finish as their highest scorer.

Meanwhile, Robbie Gould ($5,700 DK, $9,500 FD) has missed at least one field goal in every game this season when he's gotten multiple attempts (twice he's had just one), but he's still managed to score at least 6.0 in every game, including at least 8.0 in each of the last four. The upside isn't all that great, but we know there's a floor with both kickers, making them more attractive for cash games than GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers' defense ($7,400 DK) has been arguably the best in the NFL this season, and it's been showing up in the fantasy box score as well, scoring at least 10.0 fantasy points in four straight games, including at least 15.0 thrice. Impressively, they scored zero touchdowns over that span, but nine turnovers and 18 sacks are helping pay the bills. Meanwhile, Murray's 8.2 percent sack rate is one of the highest in the league among regular starters, so there should be ample opportunities for Nick Bosa and Company. Based on how big of a favorite they are, it shouldn't be surprising to see the 49ers defense as a popular captain option on DraftKings.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals' defense ($2,400) has been pretty horrible, scoring fewer than five fantasy points in all but two games this season. They don't pressure the quarterback much, they have just seven turnovers all season and Garoppolo doesn't take many sacks. If there's a bit of an opening, it's that Garoppolo has thrown at least one interception in all but one game this season, and he's already fumbled five times (losing two), so a case could be made for rostering the Arizona defense with the hope they can pick off a pass or two and outscore Gonzalez for those looking for minimal exposure.