Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 9 Fantasy Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Stefon Diggs (torn ACL / out for season)
• WR Christian Kirk (collarbone / out for season)
• WR Brian Thomas (chest / day-to-day)
• WR Gabe Davis (shoulder / day-to-day)
• WR Bub Means (ankle / week-to-week)

Week 8 wasn't too bad in terms of the quantity of new injuries to pass catchers, but we saw two fantasy-relevant WRs suffer season-enders, after two met that fate the week before. Kirk and Diggs won't play again until 2025, and Diggs may not even be ready for Week 1. The Texans are left with Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods and John Metchie as their WRs until Nico Collins returns from IR (which could happen as soon as Week 10).

The Jaguars may be in equally poor shape, after Kirk, Thomas and Davis made early exits from Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Packers. Thomas is considered day-to-day following an MRI that revealed no structural damage, and coach Doug Pederson said he expects Davis to play Week 9 at Philadelphia. Parker Washington and Tim Jones are the top candidates to take on vacated WR snaps for Jacksonville, with Washington more likely to replace Kirk in the slot and Jones more likely to take over for Thomas or Davis on the perimeter (if needed). It's also possible Thomas gets more chances from the slot, where he's excelled so far (albeit over a small sample)

Missed Week 8

• WR Diontae Johnson (ribs / day-to-day)
• WR Tee Higgins (quad / day-to-day)
• WR Mike Evans (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR DK Metcalf (MCL sprain / week-to-week)
• WR Jameson Williams (suspension / Week 10 return)
• WR Jauan Jennings (hip / day-to-day) 
• WR Quentin Johnston (ankle / day-to-day) 
• WR Allen Lazard (chest / week-to-week)
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Roman Wilson (hamstring / day-to-day) 
• WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder / day-to-day)
• WR Ja'Lynn Polk (head / day-to-day)
• WR Curtis Samuel (shoulder / day-to-day)
• WR Cedrick Wilson (hip / day-to-day)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible since Week 5)
• WR Adam Thielen (IR - hamstring / eligible since Week 8)
• WR Nico Collins (IR - hamstring / eligible to return Week 10)
• WR Brandin Cooks (IR - ankle / eligible Week 10)
• WR Josh Reynolds (IR - finger / eligible Week 10)
• WR Treylon Burks (IR - knee / eligible Week 11)

• TE T.J. Hockenson (knee / day-to-day)
• TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE Hayden Hurst (groin / week-to-week)
• TE Harrison Bryant (elbow / day-to-day)
• TE Michael Mayer (NFI - personal / no timeline)
• TE Luke Musgrave (IR - ankle / eligible Week 11)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from all the games they've played in this season. I'll use 'W8' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
• TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

CeeDee Lamb - 29% TPRR, 27% TS, 31% AYS  /  W8: 17 tgts, 164 AY (13-146-2)

Chris Olave - W8: 91% routes, 14 tgts, 180 AY (8-107-0) in first game post-Shaheed injury

Puka Nacua - W8: 65% routes, 9 tgts, 103 AY (7-106-0 plus 2-5-0 rushing)

Ladd McConkey - W8: 80% routes, 6 tgts, 77 AY (6-111-2)

Calvin Ridley - W8: 92% routes, 15 tgts, 171 AY (10-143-0)

Jakobi Meyers - 31% TS in three games without Davante Adams

Courtland Sutton - 24% TPRR, 23% TS, 38% AYS  /  W8: 11 tgts, 147 AY (8-100-0)

Cedric Tillman - W8: 93% routes, 9 tgts, 155 AY (7-99-2)  /  21 tgts, 180 yards W7+8

Jalen McMillan - W8: 88% routes, 7 tgts, 103 AY (4-35-0 plus 1-17-0 rushing)

Christian Watson - W8: 73% snaps, 79% routes, 6 tgts, 49 AY ( 4-39-0)

Kayshon Boutte - W8: 83% snaps, 84% routes, 6 tgts, 92 AY (3-46-0)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - W8: 95% routes, 4 tgts, 56 AY (2-39-1)

Elijah Moore - W8: 77% routes, team-high 12 tgts, 123 AY (8-85-0)  /  19 tgts W7+8

Jalen Coker - W8: 82% routes, 6 tgts, 98 AY (4-78-1)

Parker Washington - W8: 73% snaps, 76% routes, 4 tgts, 58 AY (3-46-0)

John Metchie - W8: 4 tgs on 8 routes (3-29-0)

Jermaine Burton - W8: 42% routes, 3 tgts, 82 AY (1-41-0)

The biggest story here is how receivers on both the Browns and Bills have thrived since the Amari Cooper trade.... except for Cooper himself. He drew just two targets on 24 routes in Sunday's 31-10 win over Seattle, while Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir combined for 14-177-1 on 17 targets. That'll shift more toward Cooper in the second half of the season, but it's hard to ignore that Coleman's two best games have come since the Cooper trade (even if a bunch of the production was on snaps Cooper didn't play).

Back in Cleveland, we've seen Cedric Tillman draw 21 targets in two weeks, with Elijah Moore getting 19 and Jerry Jeudy only 14. That's another one where volume and production inevitably will shift some toward the more established guy, but perhaps not to the extent most expected at the time of the Cooper trade. Moore looks decent for the first time since his rookie season, and Tillman may be in the midst of a true breakout. I suspect Jeudy is still the best of Cleveland's three wide receivers, but there's no denying the possibility Tillman is better.

Tight Ends 📈

Cade Otton - B2B games w/ 10 targets and 8+ catches for 81+ yards

Sam LaPorta - W8: 79% snaps, 65% routes, six tgts on 15 routes (6-48-1)

Travis Kelce - 23% TPRR, 23% TS, 27% AYS  /  W8: 92% routes, 12 tgts, 88 AY (10-90-1)

Evan Engram - 27% TPRR  /  averaged 10.2 tgts w/ Kirk out final six games of 2023

Zach Ertz - 23% TPRR, 20% TS, 21% AYS  /  W8: 11 tgts, 109 AY (7-77-0)

Jonnu Smith - W8: season-high 67% snaps  /  three straight games w/ 6+ tgts

Will Dissly - 3 straight games w/ 5 + targets in Hurst's absence

Kyle Pitts is a notable omission here. His recent production (and real-life performance) have been highly encouraging — four straight games of at least five targets and 65 yards — but his snap/route shares have been trending in the opposite direction, including season lows of 48% snaps and 58% routes in Sunday's 31-26 win over the Bucs. I'm more optimistic about Pitts than I was a month ago, no doubt, but there are also red flags that suggest another slump wouldn't be surprising.

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman - Ravens acquired Diontae Johnson on Tuesday.

Jaylen Waddle - 19% TPRR, 17% TS, 19% AYS

Jayden Reed - four straight games w/ six or fewer tgts

Jordan Addison - 18% TPRR  /  W8: 3 tgts, 43 AY (2-22-0)

DeAndre Hopkins - W8: 33% routes, 3 tgts, 42 AY (2-29-0) 

Dontayvion Wicks - W8: 31% snaps, 29% routes, 2 gts, 7 AY (2-11-0)

Olamide Zaccheaus - W8: 45% routes, 0 tgts on 18 routes

Andrei Iosivas - W8: 3 tgts, 0 catches on 36 routes (95% share)

Waddle is too good to be having this poor of a season, but concerns about his target volume can't be entirely blamed on Tua Tagovailoa's lengthy absence. Tyreek Hill's target rate/share is also considerably down, with the Dolphins sending more passes to RBs and TEs than ever before under Mike McDaniel. The hope now is that improved skill-position depth eventually leads to a scoring barrage on which Waddle cashes in. A target share any higher than the low 20s seems unlikely with De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith garnering so many passes.

Reed and Addison also have target-volume concerns stretching back over multiple games, while Hopkins is more a case where the disappointing Week 8 may or may not mean something. Hopkins obviously will play more than one-third of snaps once he knows the playbook better, but it's hard to say if his route share will be closer to 50% or 90%.

Tight Ends 📉

Ja'Tavion Sanders - W8: 37% snaps, 44% routes, 1 tgt (1-7-0) with Tremble returning

Colby Parkinson - B2B games w/ exactly two targets on 64% snaps  

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in 60 percent or less of Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Jakobi Meyers - 59%
2. Josh Downs - 47%
3. Cedric Tillman - 19%
4. Jerry Jeudy - 45%
5. Keon Coleman - 41%
6. Gabe Davis - 16% (shoulder) 
7. Jalen Tolbert - 23%
8. Alec Pierce - 19% 
9. Elijah Moore - 2%
10. Michael Wilson - 16%
11. Darius Slayton - 13%
12. Noah Brown - 1%
13. Kayshon Boutte - 1%
14. Parker Washington - 0%
15. Jalen Nailor - 2%
16. Trey Palmer - 4%

Meyers and Downs are already rostered in most competitive leagues and need to be added wherever they're still available. Both have fantasy-WR2 potential in their current situations, with Davante Adams gone from Las Vegas and Anthony Richardson benched for Indianapolis. Beyond those two, Tillman is the obvious target and worthy of either waiver priority or FAAB. I'm not sure if he's the real deal, but it's worth paying to find out when we've seen consecutive big-time receiving lines.

The next 10 or so guys on the list all had a big game within the past 3-4 weeks but generally have mediocre usage stats. Coleman is a possible exception, although there's still risk of empty weeks in a suddenly crowded Buffalo offense.

Bench Stashes

1. Jauan Jennings - 59% (hip)
2. Ricky Pearsall - 37%
3. Adonai Mitchell - 6%
4. DeMario Douglas - 31%
5. Jalen Coker - 0%
6. Xavier Legette - 15%
7. Adam Thielen - 13% (hamstring)
8. Jermaine Burton - 1%
9. Quentin Johnston - 15%
10. Troy Franklin - 4%
11. John Metchie - 0%
12. Bub Means - 4% (high-ankle sprain)
13. Jordan Whittington - 7% (shoulder)

Potential Drops

1. Dontayvion Wicks - 34% (deep leagues)
2. Allen Lazard - 38%
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 25% (hamstring)
4. Ray-Ray McCloud - 17%
5. Joshua Palmer - 14%
6. Sterling Shepard - 13%
7. Tre Tucker - 10%
8. Andrei Iosivas - 6%
9. Greg Dortch - 4%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Zach Ertz - 28%
2. Jonnu Smith - 6%
3. Hunter Henry - 39%
4. Will Dissly - 1%
5. Tyler Conklin - 19%
6. Noah Fant - 30% 
7. Brenton Strange - 3%
8. Taysom Hill - 30%
9. Isaiah Likely - 43%
10. Theo Johnson - 1%

Potential Drops

1. Luke Musgrave - 19% (IR - ankle)
2. Colby Parkinson - 17%
3. Chigoziem Okonkwo - 6%
4. Juwan Johnson - 3%
5. Ja'Tavion Sanders - 1%