Last week was pretty safe for Survivors. There were no big upsets, though perhaps a scare or two.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | GIANTS | 46.5% | 975 | 90.7% | 4.33 |
| CARDINALS | Patriots | 17.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 5.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 14.7% | 305 | 75.3% | 3.63 |
| Commanders | SAINTS | 6.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.49 |
| Bengals | TITANS | 5.6% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 1.74 |
| Falcons | RAIDERS | 2.4% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 0.74 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 2.4% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.85 |
| Jets | JAGUARS | 1.0% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.37 |
| Chiefs | BROWNS | 1.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.33 |
| PANTHERS | Cowboys | 0.7% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.31 |
| Packers | SEAHAWKS | 0.5% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.21 |
| CHARGERS | Buccaneers | 0.4% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.17 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 0.2% | 130 | 56.5% | 0.09 |
| EAGLES | Steelers | 0.1% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.03 |
| TEXANS | Dolphins | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
| LIONS | Bills | 0.0% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.00 |
The Ravens are massive favorites this week, with five roughly equal options thereafter. But at nearly 91 percent odds per Vegas, are they popular enough to fade in a pot-odds play? What does the Ravens' ownership need to be to break even with, say, the Vikings?
A Ravens win/Vikings loss is .91 (Ravens' Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .25 (Vikings' Vegas Odds of losing), which
Last week was pretty safe for Survivors. There were no big upsets, though perhaps a scare or two.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | GIANTS | 46.5% | 975 | 90.7% | 4.33 |
| CARDINALS | Patriots | 17.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 5.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 14.7% | 305 | 75.3% | 3.63 |
| Commanders | SAINTS | 6.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.49 |
| Bengals | TITANS | 5.6% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 1.74 |
| Falcons | RAIDERS | 2.4% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 0.74 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 2.4% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.85 |
| Jets | JAGUARS | 1.0% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.37 |
| Chiefs | BROWNS | 1.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.33 |
| PANTHERS | Cowboys | 0.7% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.31 |
| Packers | SEAHAWKS | 0.5% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.21 |
| CHARGERS | Buccaneers | 0.4% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.17 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 0.2% | 130 | 56.5% | 0.09 |
| EAGLES | Steelers | 0.1% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.03 |
| TEXANS | Dolphins | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
| LIONS | Bills | 0.0% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.00 |
The Ravens are massive favorites this week, with five roughly equal options thereafter. But at nearly 91 percent odds per Vegas, are they popular enough to fade in a pot-odds play? What does the Ravens' ownership need to be to break even with, say, the Vikings?
A Ravens win/Vikings loss is .91 (Ravens' Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .25 (Vikings' Vegas Odds of losing), which is 22.75 percent. A Vikings win/Ravens loss is .75*.09 = 6.75 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 22.75/6.75 = 3.37.
If the Ravens win/Vikings lose, 15 are out on the Vikings plus another 12 non-Vikings owners projected to lose, for 27 total losers. In our hypothetical $10, 100-person pool, 73 would remain, and $1,000/73 = $13.69. And $13.69 * 3.37 = $46.13. And $1,000/$46 is roughly 22. That means, to get that $46 in equity, enough people would have to be on the Ravens that only 22 remained if they lost. With 12 expected to lose on the other teams, you'd need 66 (66 percent) on the Ravens to just to break even.
This time of year, ownership numbers are quite noisy and individual pools are likely much different — especially this season with so many already knocked out — so definitely consider your competition's options. But unless you expect something like 75-80 percent of your pool to take Baltimore, the Ravens are still the easy pick.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a bye and face a Giants team that is barely competing. There's a reason Vegas made Baltimore the biggest favorite this season.
Minnesota Vikings
In a division game at home, the Vikings' defense should overwhelm Caleb Williams and the Bears, who are 0-6 on the road this season.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders had a bye last week. The Saints watched Derek Carr break his hand and get a concussion. He's not likely to play this week. Advantage Washington.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have lost three in a row. Nothing like a home date against the Patriots to get things back on track. The Patriots lost to the Colts at the wire in Week 13 before a bye last week. The extra prep time gives slight pause, but the Cardinals are desperate for win to keep pace in the NFC West.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a short week after playing Monday and are on the road again, but the Titans are so bad that even the Bengals can't bungle this one away.
Notable Omission:
Atlanta Falcons
The Biggest factor is Kirk Cousins' inability to stop throwing interceptions. The Raiders are just playing out the schedule, but if Cousins' gifts them a few short fields, who knows?
