This article is part of our Survivor series.
Favorites mostly ruled the day last week, aside from Seahawks upsetting the 49ers in Santa Clara. The Packers needed a blocked field goal as time expired to survive the Bears.
In my pool, all Survivors advanced. Of the original 442, seven remain.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | PANTHERS | 24.0% | 550 | 84.6% | 3.69 |
| COMMANDERS | Cowboys | 20.5% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 3.35 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 19.4% | 360 | 78.3% | 4.22 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots | 13.9% | 315 | 75.9% | 3.35 |
| Buccaneers | GIANTS | 6.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.88 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 5.9% | 170 | 63.0% | 2.19 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 4.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.51 |
| Lions | COLTS | 3.3% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 0.75 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 0.7% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.26 |
| Ravens | CHARGERS | 0.3% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.12 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Packers | 49ers | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| Eagles | RAMS | 0.1% | 140 | 58.3% | 0.04 |
With three teams at about 20 percent or more in popularity, there is no pot-odds play this week.
Week 12 features a number of divisional matchups, which are an extra consideration in Survivor. Divisional teams are thoroughly acquainted with each other and sub-par teams are not intimidated. However, many of this week's divisional games are huge mismatches, which eases the Survivor mind at bit.
Consider which teams are available to your competition before making your pick.
Favorites mostly ruled the day last week, aside from Seahawks upsetting the 49ers in Santa Clara. The Packers needed a blocked field goal as time expired to survive the Bears.
In my pool, all Survivors advanced. Of the original 442, seven remain.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | PANTHERS | 24.0% | 550 | 84.6% | 3.69 |
| COMMANDERS | Cowboys | 20.5% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 3.35 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 19.4% | 360 | 78.3% | 4.22 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots | 13.9% | 315 | 75.9% | 3.35 |
| Buccaneers | GIANTS | 6.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.88 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 5.9% | 170 | 63.0% | 2.19 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 4.9% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.51 |
| Lions | COLTS | 3.3% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 0.75 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 0.7% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.26 |
| Ravens | CHARGERS | 0.3% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.12 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Packers | 49ers | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| Eagles | RAMS | 0.1% | 140 | 58.3% | 0.04 |
With three teams at about 20 percent or more in popularity, there is no pot-odds play this week.
Week 12 features a number of divisional matchups, which are an extra consideration in Survivor. Divisional teams are thoroughly acquainted with each other and sub-par teams are not intimidated. However, many of this week's divisional games are huge mismatches, which eases the Survivor mind at bit.
Consider which teams are available to your competition before making your pick. This is the time of year to strategize along those lines, especially with so few Survivors remaining in most pools.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Washington Commanders
The Cowboys have no offense and only Carolina gives up more rushing yards. Dallas has the Giants on Thanksgiving and then the Panthers a couple weeks after that. Other than those two games, it's hard to find another win on the schedule, including this week at Washington. On top of it all, the Cowboys are coming off short rest having playing Monday while the Commanders had a mini bye after playing last Thursday. (Why the NFL continues to schedule short-rest teams vs. long-rest teams is a mystery.)
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season and now travel to a Carolina squad that has won two in a row. Expect the pick-against-the-Panthers strategy to kick back in this week. The loss should have the Chiefs re-focused, and Isiah Pacheco could return this week. The Panthers' two recent wins came against Saints and Giants, not exactly elite teams.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins' return Monday sparked the Texans' offense and another week back in the fold should continue to mean good things. The 2-8 Titans are miserable. They beat a Tua-less Miami early in the season and a Drake Maye-led Patriots squad in overtime a few weeks ago. They've been held to 20 points or less in all but one game this season — and no more than 17 in every loss. The Texans are in a good spot at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans is expected to return this week for the Bucs, who are coming off a bye. Losers of five in a row, the Giants are reeling (how did they ever win at Seattle?) and now are turning to Tommy DeVito. It's not because DeVito is the best option at quarterback. The Giants don't want to risk the injury guarantees on Daniel Jones' contract nor the performance and playing-time incentives in backup Drew Lock's contract. So, they'll go with the third-stringer. Don't expect DeVito to spark the team the way some backups do after the starter is benched.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have lost to good teams this year and beaten bad/mediocre teams. This week, they get Las Vegas, which might be the worst team they've faced. The Raiders have an offense that scores less than 20 points a game and a defense that gives up nearly 30. The only slight hesitation is perhaps the Broncos are on the road in a division game, but Las Vegas doesn't provide much of a home-field advantage for the Raiders.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are coming off a huge division win against the Ravens and a letdown is possible on the road, on a short week, in another division matchup against Cleveland, with the Bengals awaiting Pittsburgh next week. Whatever spark Jameis Winston brought to the Browns has faded as Cleveland has been blown out in consecutive games, but the Steelers play the Browns in Pittsburgh in two weeks, which might be more attractive.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is back and the Dolphins are scoring points again. Drake Maye gives the Patriots a chance, but the rookie is still a bit of a wild card, and the Patriots' defense is hit-and-miss.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
None. If all of the above teams are unavailable, the one favorite I'd stay away from among the remaining teams is the Cardinals. The Seattle home-field advantage is losing its mystique with the Seahawks losing four in a row at Lumen Field, their longest home losing streak since 2008 when they lost five consecutive with the garbage roster Mike Holmgren was given in his final year (you have to go back to 1980 for more home losses in a row than that). But the Seahawks defense appears much improved with the recent change at linebacker, and the good vibes from last week's big win at San Francisco should carry over against a Cardinals team that is probably due for a loss after winning five of six.
