This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Saints had a scare, but roughly only 10 percent of pools got knocked out with the Falcons, Lions and Raiders.
Let's take a look at Week 13.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANTHERS | Redskins | 52.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 9.58 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 19.30% | 425 | 80.95 | 3.68 |
| Packers | GIANTS | 10.40% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.77 |
| Eagles | DOLPHINS | 8.00% | 385 | 79.38 | 1.65 |
| Jets | BENGALS | 2.20% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.80 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 2.20% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.55 |
| COWBOYS | Bills | 1.90% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.48 |
| Bears | LIONS | 0.90% | 130 | 64.91 | 0.32 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 0.40% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.15 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 0.30% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.12 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.20% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.09 |
| Patriots | TEXANS | 0.20% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.08 |
| RAVENS | 49ers | 0.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.06 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As we get this deep into the season, the polling data on ownership percentages is noisier and less applicable to your particular pool. Accordingly, you should look at which teams your competitors have available and come up with your own estimates to whatever extent is feasible.
Assuming the Panthers are as highly owned in your pool as they are here, they're a fade for me if you have any team that's more than 70 percent likely to win.
My Picks
1. Philadelphia Eagles
They're only eight percent owned, and while they're playing on the road, they should bounce back against a terrible Dolphins team. I give the Eagles a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas
The Saints had a scare, but roughly only 10 percent of pools got knocked out with the Falcons, Lions and Raiders.
Let's take a look at Week 13.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANTHERS | Redskins | 52.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 9.58 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 19.30% | 425 | 80.95 | 3.68 |
| Packers | GIANTS | 10.40% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.77 |
| Eagles | DOLPHINS | 8.00% | 385 | 79.38 | 1.65 |
| Jets | BENGALS | 2.20% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.80 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 2.20% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.55 |
| COWBOYS | Bills | 1.90% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.48 |
| Bears | LIONS | 0.90% | 130 | 64.91 | 0.32 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 0.40% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.15 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 0.30% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.12 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.20% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.09 |
| Patriots | TEXANS | 0.20% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.08 |
| RAVENS | 49ers | 0.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.06 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As we get this deep into the season, the polling data on ownership percentages is noisier and less applicable to your particular pool. Accordingly, you should look at which teams your competitors have available and come up with your own estimates to whatever extent is feasible.
Assuming the Panthers are as highly owned in your pool as they are here, they're a fade for me if you have any team that's more than 70 percent likely to win.
My Picks
1. Philadelphia Eagles
They're only eight percent owned, and while they're playing on the road, they should bounce back against a terrible Dolphins team. I give the Eagles a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
I think the Raiders will hang with them, but if you can get them at 20 percent or lower ownership, I'd make them my second pick. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys haven't beaten anyone good, but the Bills are only slightly better than league average, and the Cowboys are at home on the short week and a far more talented -- if worse coached - team. I give the Cowboys a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
They're on the road off a bad Sunday night loss, but the Giants are a soft defense, and New York can't protect its quarterback or run-block, either. I give the Packers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
5. New Orleans Saints
It's odd to pick a team that got blown out at home three weeks ago by the team they're facing on the road, but here we are. The Falcons played their A game last time, but the Saints are a far better team and should clean up the mistakes Sunday night. I give the Saints a 71 percent chance to win this game.
6. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers should crush the Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins at home, but if they're more than 50 percent owned, it's worth fading them and hoping for the upset. Check your pools to make your best estimate of what it's likely to be. I give the Panthers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
7. Baltimore Ravens
They look like the best team in the NFL right now, but they're facing what might be the second best in the 49ers. But the Ravens are home, they're the healthier of the two teams and the 49ers have to travel across the country for an early body-clock game, I give the Ravens a 64 percent chance of winning this game.
8. New England Patriots
You probably don't have them left, and if you did, you probably weren't saving them for this spot. In any event, I give the Patriots a 63 percent chance to win this game.
9. Chicago Bears
This is ugly, but it's Week 13, so you might not have a choice. They're on the road, but the Lions could be down to their third-string QB, and Chicago's defense is still good. I give the Bears a 62 percent chance to win this game.
10. Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough matchup against an excellent Vikings team off a bye, but Seattle is at home, and they still have the best quarterback in the league. I give the Seahawks a 59 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Rams, Jets, Colts
The Rams defense spent 40 minutes on the field Monday night, and they have to turn things around in six days against a fast-paced Cardinals team coming off a bye. The Jets are on the road against a Bengals team with a real quarterback, and the Colts have a tough matchup against the Titans and could be without T.Y. Hilton.
