Game Spotlight: Superdome Springboard

New Orleans vs. Los Angeles Rams, 4:25

Open: 59 O/U, LAR -1
Live: 57.5 O/U, LAR -2

This should be one of those weeks where lineup construction is simpler than usual, in large part because of this game alone. It just isn't easy to put a lineup together without starting with this game and working outward. The over/under all but dictates this. Luckily for us, the best fantasy outputs in this game should come from the usual suspects, because these two schemes channel their usage so reliably.

Jared Goff was subjected to but did not get rattled by consistent early pressure from the Packers last week, and it will be interesting to see how blitz-heavy the Saints go in an effort to imitate the method Green Bay had so much success with. Whether they do might be inconsequential for us, because it seems unlikely that the Saints defense would find much success with whatever particular approach, and if the Rams offense succeeds it does so through four players almost exclusively. Todd Gurley needs no explanation.

The receivers don't really, either. But I think I would rank their projections in descending order of Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods. Kupp (knee) is supposed to be back into his normal role, which would make him the top red-zone target and a candidate to lead the team in targets generally. His return knocks Josh Reynolds off the radar. I'll try to get lots of shares of Kupp. Cooks and Woods are both candidates to see Marshon Lattimore on the outside, and if one can beat him I think you'd have to consider Cooks the favorite. Then again, if Woods more so sees Eli Apple then Woods would have the preferable projection.

Drew Brees is not the fantasy quarterback he used to be, but a game like this could provoke a vintage showing from Brees, who generally remains automatic at home and otherwise has his fantasy production only subject to volume. If the Rams offense plays like it always does, the volume should be necessary in Brees' case for New Orleans to realistically compete. Even if he sees a bunch of Marcus Peters, Michael Thomas is one of the most appealing players on the slate, with conspicuously low prices on both major sites. Thomas has just one touchdown and hasn't gone over 100 yards since Week 3, which was also the last time he saw double-digit targets. The target count almost has to go up to and over 10 in this one. If not Thomas you can get an affordable share of the Saints passing game with the rookie Tre'Quan Smith, who's arguably one of the most tempting GPP wideouts on the slate in the downfield role formerly held by Ted Ginn. Cameron Meredith had a really nice three-week stretch from Weeks 3 to 5, but since then he has just 27 snaps and no targets in two games. It's unclear what happened, but he theoretically holds some GPP appeal as the projected WR3 in this offense. Ben Watson is worth consideration as a punt pick at tight end, but his role is trending downward since the introduction of Dan Arnold into the offense. Josh Hill doesn't really get targets but it seems like he'll generally play more snaps than Watson going forward.

I noticed Saints beat writer John Sigler suggesting that Alvin Kamara might not be 100 percent in recent weeks, which gives me more to think about than I otherwise might. My instinct was to lock in Kamara to every lineup in this expected shootout at the Superdome, a context where it's easy to imagine him going off as a runner and receiver both. If Kamara really is a bit nicked up, it wouldn't be a surprise if Sean Payton tried to save more of his snaps for route running, especially with Meredith's role trending downward. This should be one of those games where there's enough to go around for both Kamara and Ingram, as the Rams run defense is very beatable and the only reason it doesn't get beat up more is because teams so often have to abandon the run to play catch-up. The Saints shouldn't have that particular problem, not in the Superdome anyway.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00

Open: 54 O/U, CAR -6
Live: 55 O/U, CAR -6

Particularly with the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 1999 Kurt Warner bit, this game is probably the second-most appealing game on the slate. The Buccaneers defense remains a mess, so the only thing that can stop a shootout in any particular game is a failure on the part of Tampa to pose a credible catch-up threat. With Jameis Winston that would be a substantial concern. With Fitzpatrick I think we have a lot of evidence that he's more or less the real deal in the Todd Monken system. Fitzpatrick might be bad in any other context, but in this one he's convincing. The Panthers pass defense has been solid, allowing only 7.2 YPA while conceding 12 touchdown passes to nine interceptions, but the scheduled failures of the Tampa pass defense mean Fitzpatrick should get his fantasy points through garbage time if nothing else.

Fitzpatrick's presence correlates to improved fortunes for DeSean Jackson, who was generally ignored in Winston's dink-and-dunk approach. Jackson might see a hefty dose of 4.32 40 rookie corner Donte Jackson, who's generally looked quite good. DeSean is one of the toughest covers of all time, however, and I'd probably give him the advantage against any corner in particular. Still, I'm not as high on Jackson as I will be other weeks. Mike Evans would probably see more of James Bradberry, who I find less intimidating than Jackson. Evans has historically struggled against the Panthers, catching just 48 percent of his targets at 6.7 YPT in eight games, but naively or not I believe Monken is a totally different task for Ron Rivera than the Dirk Koetter offense was. Fitzpatrick's return is probably a break-even change for Chris Godwin and a heavy loss for Adam Humphries, who had thrived with Winston's checkdown tendencies. OJ Howard is such a beast that I don't think defenses matter much for him, but he notably takes on a Panthers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends, conceding a 73.8 percent catch rate at 8.4 YPT with an average of just over nine targets per game. I'll probably go with Howard this week when I don't go with Travis Kelce.

Peyton Barber's grip on the Tampa backfield is at an all-time high with Ronald Jones (hamstring) out multiple weeks, but the fact that he didn't see a single target last week means the specter of Jacquizz Rodgers stealing passing down usage is a huge concern, especially in any environment where Tampa is the underdog. The Carolina run defense has been somewhat accommodating this year, but Barber's likely inactivity in the passing game means he'll probably need at least one touchdown on the ground to provide value, and I don't want to chase that when his over/under for carries is probably something like 13.5. To bet on Barber is also to fade Cam Newton to some extent, which I can't consider.

Speaking of Cam, he's playing out of his mind right now. An overlooked MVP candidate for sure. I don't see what hope the Buccaneers could possibly have against him. Norv Turner has proved himself a pragmatist, as his offense is a distinctly modern production with a lot of promising developments. This might be the first well-designed offense Newton has played in since Auburn. With Newton on the rise, the projections are up for everyone in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is one of the top plays of the week at any position, and Tampa's generally competent run defense is no deterrent given the scoring volume that should be up for grabs.

After McCaffrey, there should be some substantial amount of fantasy value to go around yet. Devin Funchess is a more complete receiver than the rookie D.J. Moore, but their tasks don't overlap and the Buccaneers pass defense is so bad that the answer appears to be 'both' in this case. Moore's tasks do overlap with Curtis Samuel, however, and as a blue chip prospect in his own right I think Samuel merits serious tournament consideration, just know that it's probably to fade Moore to do so. Samuel seemingly displaced Jarius Wright from the offense last week, playing 26 snaps against Baltimore while securing all three of his targets for 28 yards. Who knows what's going on with that foot, but the outlook is surprisingly bright for even Greg Olsen, who has 16 targets in his three games since returning and touchdowns in consecutive weeks. The emergence of these young receivers harms Olsen's target share relative to past years, though.

Cleveland vs. Kansas City, 1:00

Open: 52 O/U, KC -8.5
Live: 52 O/U, KC -8

Pat Mahomes will presumably have a bad game at some point in his career, but I think a strict rule of not fading him is probably the most sensible approach in the meantime. That's not to say that you can't pass over Mahomes and other parts of the Kansas City offense when building your lineup – especially with the prices going ever higher, and especially against a defense as good as the Browns – but it's best to presume Mahomes will score multiple touchdowns and approach 300 yards provided he hits the 30 pass attempt mark.

That the setting is less than favorable for Mahomes is raised again by Tyreek Hill's limited practices this week with a groin issue, though he promisingly was removed from the injury report following Friday's practice. If Hill is himself, then the show should go on as planned. It will be interesting to watch him against the impressive rookie Denzel Ward, whose build and athleticism is the exact prototype for defending Hill specifically. It still might not be enough. If it is, though, then Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins will likely prove too much to account for. The Browns have done a great job defending tight ends this year, holding them to 6.5 yards per target, but Kelce's athleticism and usage are practically more similar to those of a wide receiver, anyway. If anything I think this is a better projection than usual for Kelce since Ward might present a substantial obstacle for Hill. As a Watkins truther I am in any case inclined to believe last week's 107-yard, two-touchdown showing marked the start of a tear that will endure through however long he plays with Mahomes. Playing with his third system and quarterback in three years, it wouldn't surprise at all if Watkins was limited by an adjustment period early on.

Rather than struggling against the Browns defense, the main risk for Mahomes might actually be a combination of the Chiefs backfield and a dud showing from the Cleveland offense. If the Browns flop on offense following the firing of the head coach and offensive coordinator, then the urgency would of course fall on the side of the Kansas City offense. If they reach for the lowest-hanging fruit, that might turn out to be Kareem Hunt and even Spencer Ware on the ground against a Browns defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. It would take a blowout scenario for Ware to get in on it to any significant extent, but he's good enough for the task and Kansas City might want to start thinking about preserving Hunt for the playoffs. The luxury and motive are both there if the Browns offense shows no teeth.

As far as the Browns offense goes, I'm pretty much at a loss for ideas. Will the upheaval destabilize or galvanize? To whatever extent Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were the problem, I don't know how suited Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens might be to fixing the consequent dysfunction. Kitchens promisingly has a long history with Bruce Arians, but he still reports to Williams, and Williams is still a cave man. Williams was a conservative head coach even by the standards of the 2000s. Perhaps he's evolved. Perhaps his approach isn't especially significant for our purposes either way. I just don't know. But I'm generally pessimistic for the Browns offense, because the Chiefs defense is on the upswing and the Browns offensive line has been cripplingly bad at points.

The good news for Baker Mayfield is that Rashard Higgins (knee) is expected back, and while he isn't a big-play threat Higgins should prove an upgrade over Antonio Callaway, who had been overmatched in a starting role. The Browns are conspicuously slow at wide receiver if it's Landry and Higgins on the field, however, so that could prove a cause for worry if the Chiefs stack the box. How much is done with them remains anyone's guess, but there should at least be targets for both Landry and Higgins in this setting, which is all you need for the GPP consideration. Expect a bounce-back week from David Njoku following last week's bizarre zero-target outcome. Mayfield threw his way 28 times in the three prior games, and for Njoku to go without a target on a full snap workload screams of noise. The Chiefs have notably conceded the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, allowing 9.3 yards per target. Duke Johnson's role in the offense almost has to grow with Jackson and Haley gone, but even as a Duke fan I won't be wagering on him until we see something concrete.

There are a lot of bad indicators in the setting for Nick Chubb, who plays for the heavy underdog at a time where Cleveland's profound lack of speed might allow the defense to play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual. But I for some reason have an itch of optimism as a GPP play, because it wouldn't be surprising if the Browns make an inspired showing to keep the game closer than expected. And if players are showing better form generally, I would otherwise have no concerns about Chubb doing his part. I still think he's one of the best running backs in the league, and with Williams running the show he will get his carries if the game isn't out of hand. The Chiefs have in any case allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, giving up 5.3 yards per carry. Chubb can hurt them if they play like that.