Super Bowl History: Super Bowl Betting Outcomes

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Published on February 5, 2025

Super Bowl Betting: Historical Super Bowl Spread and Total Outcomes ahead of Super Bowl LIX

Its always bittersweet when the Super Bowl awaits. Yes, its great to have a game featuring presumably two of the best teams for all the marbles. But it also means that we have to wait seven months until the next meaningful NFL game.

But hey, that's all the more reason to come up with some wagers for the game! We have 58 Super Bowls of history to go on, let's take a look at some of the trends.

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Super Bowl Betting History

All-time Super Bowl Betting Outcomes

Favorites 37-20 SU

Favorites 29-27-2 ATS

AFC 29-29 SU

AFC 28-28-2 ATS

Over 29-28

Super Bowl XLIX went out as a Pick Em. The historical mean reversion is incredible, every stat here is essentially .500. So how about more recent trends?

Last 20 Super Bowls

Favorites 9-10 SU

Favorites 6-13 ATS

AFC 12-8 SU

AFC 11-9 ATS

Over 9-11

OK, tough run for the favorites, though we have had plenty of short spreads in recent years.

Last 10 Super Bowls

Favorites 4-5 SU

Favorites 3-6 ATS

AFC 7-3 SU

AFC 8-2 ATS

Over 5-5

Four of these were the Chiefs, three of which they won and covered.

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Super Bowl Betting Trends

Underdogs have covered in the last four Super Bowls and won outright in three of them. The lone exception was the Rams beating the Bengals 23-20 but not covering as 4.5 point favorites.
Underdogs covered four consecutive Super Bowls just once before (Super Bowls XXXVI to XXXIV)
Counting this season, the Chiefs have made five of the last six Super Bowls. No spread went out larger than -3 (Chiefs over Bucs in Super Bowl LV).
The last 15 Super Bowls have seen spreads of -5 or less
Overs have hit the last 2 Super Bowls, prior to that Unders hit 4 Super Bowls in a row
The longest Over streak was 4, from Super Bowl XIX to Super Bowl XXIII
The team that has scored first has won 38 of 58 Super Bowls (65.5%)
As per Steve Makinen on VSiN.com, "The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 30-20 SU all-time but has lost 12 of the last 14 and is on a 1-16 ATS skid since 2004!"

Chiefs Season and Super Bowl Betting History

ATS 8-10-1
Over 8-11
Super Bowl 4-2 ATS, Over 2-3 (there was no listed total in Super Bowl I)

Eagles Season and Super Bowl Betting History

ATS 13-7
Over 9-11
Super Bowl 2-1 ATS, Over 1-2

Super Trends of Yesteryear

The NFC once won 13 straight Super Bowls, starting with the Niners beating the Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX and ending when the Broncos upset the Packers as 11-point underdogs in Super Bowl XXXII
It was incredibly symmetrical in that the first one involved Dan Marino in his 2nd year and no one would have believed that he would never get back to the Super Bowl while the streak ended with his classmate from the great QB draft of 1983, fellow HOF-er John Elway, finally winning the big game after several spectacular failures
The sportsbooks have only lost money twice in the 34 Super Bowls since the Nevada Gaming Commission (the NGC if you've ever seen Ocean's 11) began tracking it
Super Bowl XIII in 1979 "middled" and cost the repordedly cost the sports books $3 million ($13 inflation-adjusted). The Steelers opened as 3.5-point favorites, closed at -4.5 and won 35-31. It is known as Black Sunday in the industry.
The Super Bowl Indicator for the stock market was a thing at one time. Long story short, if the NFC (or old NFL) team wins the Super Bowl, the market will end higher that year. If there was ever a stat that demonstrates "coincidence" over "causality" it's this one, but even after people noticed it, it still worked 67% of the time, so what do I know.
The Giants have won four Super Bowls, the Eagles can get halfway there if they win on Sunday. I just thought I would throw that out there.