Kodai Senga

Kodai Senga

32-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Mets
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Expectations for Senga were high coming into 2024, especially with how he closed the 2023 season once he was fully acclimated to the major league environment. However, Senga pitched fewer major league innings than Spencer Strider in 2024, as a shoulder capsule injury late in camp shelved him until late July. Senga then came back to pitch on July 26 only to injure his calf muscle and then miss the remainder of the regular season. All we have to move forward with a valuation of the pitcher is the recency bias of his health around just how awesome his ghost fork pitch is for results. That fork ball had a 60 percent whiff rate in 2023, which is beyond absurd, but his cutter and four-seamer also did very well. There is no doubt Senga has the stuff to be a staff ace for the Mets and fantasy teams, but the recent health issues are a vivid reminder of what his downside can be. We almost suggest treating Senga as you did Chris Sale in 2024 drafts; focus on the upside while determining just how comfortable you are with the downside. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#158
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Mets in December of 2022. Contract includes $15 million player option for 2026 and $15 million player option for 2027.
Dominates Nats in Thursday's start
PNew York Mets
March 21, 2025
Senga gave up an unearned run on zero hits and two walks over 3.2 innings during Thursday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
Facing most of Washington's Opening Day lineup, Senga saw CJ Abrams cross the plate in the first inning after a walk, a stolen base and a throwing error by Luis Torrens on a strikeout of James Wood, but the right-hander shook it off and breezed through the rest of his outing. Senga has a 2.00 ERA and 9:2 K:BB through nine Grapefruit League innings, and while the Mets will keep a careful eye on his workload -- he won't make his 2025 debut until the fifth game of the season, April 1 in Miami -- he seems fully recovered from last year's injury woes.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .186 342 100 42 55 7 0 6
Since 2023vs Right .222 372 111 36 73 14 0 12
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .000 7 4 1 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right .167 13 5 0 2 0 0 1
2023vs Left .190 335 96 41 55 7 0 6
2023vs Right .224 359 106 36 71 14 0 11
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 2.47 1.05 98.1 7 3 0 12.2 3.8 0.8
Since 2023Away 3.68 1.40 73.1 6 4 0 9.6 4.4 1.1
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.38 0.56 5.1 1 0 0 15.2 1.7 1.7
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home 2.42 1.08 93.0 6 3 0 12.0 4.0 0.8
2023Away 3.68 1.40 73.1 6 4 0 9.6 4.4 1.1
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Kodai Senga See More
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3 days ago
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3 days ago
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8 days ago
The latest update to the RotoWire Roundtable Rankings sees Jackson Chourio move into the back of the first round.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2017
Senga's first year in the majors couldn't have gone much better from an individual standpoint, as he made 29 starts and posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 202:77 K:BB across 166.1 innings. He joined the Mets on a three-year, $45 million contract after spending the first 11 years of his career in Japan, and he ended up being a bright spot on what was mostly a disappointing team in Queens. The 31-year-old struggled with walks -- his 11.1 percent walk rate was third worst among qualified starters -- but he helped offset the free passes with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate, 0.92 HR/9 and 80.3 percent left-on-base rate. A 3.87 xERA and 3.77 xFIP are hardly a surprise given his walks, though it's a right shoulder strain that is of utmost concern for prospective fantasy managers. The Mets shut Senga down in February and he will not pick up a baseball "until symptoms subside and strength returns," per president of baseball operations David Stearns.
Senga has been one of Japan's best pitchers over the last decade, anchoring the staff for a Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks team that won six NPB titles. The Hawks don't allow their players to leave via the posting system, however, so Senga had to wait until his age-30 season to try his luck against the toughest level of competition. The righty has a large repertoire led by a fastball that has touched triple digits and a devastating forkball. Those weapons have helped him to a 2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 28.2 percent strikeout rate over the course of his career. He made the jump at the right time, having posted an even better 1.94 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his final year in Japan. The Mets landed Senga for $75 million over five years, but he will assuredly use his opt-out clause after the 2025 season if he is healthy and has shown an ability to be effective in MLB. He has room to take a sizable step back from his NPB numbers and still serve as a capable mid-rotation arm at the MLB level, with upside for more, though durability could be a concern. He's eclipsed 150 innings in just one of the last six seasons.
The Japanese 23 year-old fastball/spliter pitcher emerged as a starter for Softbank Hawks in 2016.
More Fantasy News
Won't pitch in first series
PNew York Mets
March 17, 2025
Senga is expected to make his first start of the season April 1 in Miami, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Unveils sinker in spring debut
PNew York Mets
March 5, 2025
Senga worked a sinker into his repertoire during Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Marlins, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Spring debut coming Monday
PNew York Mets
March 2, 2025
Senga will make his first start of spring training Monday against the Marlins, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not ready for official games
PNew York Mets
February 25, 2025
Senga is not ready to pitch in Grapefruit League games since he is due to make a couple more simulated outings in a controlled environment, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Fully healthy since early January
PNew York Mets
February 11, 2025
Senga said Tuesday that he's felt fully healthy since the beginning of January, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Chance for NLDS roster
PNew York Mets
October 3, 2024
Senga could be added to the Mets' NLDS roster, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
Senga is working his way back from a calf injury and most recently threw a 25-pitch live batting practice session Monday. Though he missed out on the National League Wild Card Series roster, Senga could contribute out of New York's bullpen in its NLDS matchup against the Phillies.
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