Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Baltimore vs. Cincinnati

At the season's start this matchup was expected to be a high-scoring affair – and it still could be one – but even as two of the AFC's best teams the Ravens and Bengals walk into this game with a litany of issues to address. The Bengals have had technical difficulties on offense for no apparent reason, with quarterback Joe Burrow taking too many sacks and floating too many interceptable passes. The Cincinnati run game has fallen off a cliff through four games, as well, with Joe Mixon averaging 2.7 yards per carry to this point. The Ravens have a different problem – their performance has been good, especially on the part of superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson – but the Ravens are dealing with difficult injuries that could make things easier for Cincinnati, most recently the absence of WR1 Rashod Bateman. The over/under is 47.5 and the Ravens are favored by 3.5 at press time.

QUARTERBACKS

There are very few players more difficult to fade on a single-game slate than Lamar Jackson ($12200 DK, $17000 FD), because he scores touchdowns at a rapid rate both as a passer and runner. Perhaps it's an insufficient sample size to take away much, but Jackson has actually struggled against the Bengals going back to 2020, especially as a passer. Even when Jackson has a down game as a passer, though, it's rare that he does nothing on the ground in the same game. Unless a game is particularly high scoring with scattered usage, it's easy for Jackson to be on cashing teams. With Bateman out there's a chance his usage gets diluted over a committee of route runners, which would make it more difficult to fade Jackson and poach his production via his pass catchers.

Joe Burrow ($10600 DK, $15500 FD) obliterated the Baltimore defense in 2021, and not in a way the Ravens have any real excuse for. Burrow could produce at half the rate he did against the Ravens last year – which would be 235 yards and 1.75 touchdowns – and he'd still be in good position to cash on a single-game slate. Playcaller Zac Taylor needs to be ready for a different look than the Ravens showed in 2021, because Baltimore's defensive coaching is never complacent. Just the same, Taylor, Burrow and the Bengals offense have no good excuse for failure here. The Bengals have a massive WR:DB advantage on offense, especially if Marcus Peters is out or limited for the Ravens. Marlon Humphrey can only cover one player at a time, so every play one of Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins will be running against a corner completely incapable of beating them.

RUNNING BACKS

Joe Mixon ($8800 DK, $12500 FD) has struggled to a bewildering extent through four weeks, averaging 2.7 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target, with just one touchdown on 82 carries. The good news is his workload has been enormous, averaging roughly 50 snaps, 20 carries and six targets per game. Perhaps that rate doesn't hold, but if it does he should eventually stumble into a 20-yard carry. Not just that – the Ravens are allowing 4.8 yards per carry to running backs and funneled 40 targets to running backs through their first four games. If Mixon can't capitalize here then perhaps he was sniped by Samaje Perine ($5000 DK, $7500 FD), who has played consistently well the last two years. Chris Evans ($200 DK, $6000 FD) is a dangerous pass catcher, the problem is it's possible he'll play less than five snaps after playing six in the first four weeks.

J.K. Dobbins ($7000 DK, $11500 FD) played 33 snaps and saw 17 touches from scrimmage in Week 4, his second game back from last year's season-ending knee injury, and he looked good scoring two touchdowns in the process. With backup Justice Hill out the Ravens might be tempted to give Dobbins more work in this game, though they'll need to be mindful of managing his knee appropriately. Mike Davis ($4400 DK, $6000 FD) was the third back in Week 4 and might be the backup in this one, but there's a chance Kenyan Drake ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) gets involved at Davis' expense, and both have been dreadfully ineffective so far this year. Baltimore might not have a clear hierarchy between those two. Patrick Ricard ($600 DK, $5000 FD) is just a fullback but he caught three passes last week.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Ja'Marr Chase ($11000 DK, $13500 FD) and Tee Higgins ($8200 DK, $12000 FD) both have very good setups this year, and of course excellent recent production against this defense. A defense that has probably gotten worse since last year, moreover, even if only because of injuries. Tyler Boyd ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) is one of the league's most overqualified WR3s and is certainly capable of capitalizing if the Bengals struggle to get the ball to Chase or Higgins. Tight end Hayden Hurst ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) is expected to play through a groin injury, but it might block him from seizing the target volume he had in the first two weeks – Hurst had 15 targets over Weeks 1 and 2, but only six on 61 snaps since then. Backup tight end Mitchell Wilcox ($200 DK, $5500 FD) has one catch in each of the last three games, but the Bengals tend to make him block for the most part.

Devin Duvernay ($5600 DK, $9000 FD) might or might not be able to step up with Bateman out, but the Baltimore passing game might be in a difficult spot if it can't get Duvernay going at least a little bit. Duvernay's 92.3 percent catch rate will fall off soon, just hopefully not too much in this particular game. While Duvernay's catch rate will decline, his yards after the catch per catch will increase from his current figure of 2.6 yards, so his peripheral numbers have some leverage to work with. No matter what happens with Duvernay, the real WR1 in Baltimore is Mark Andrews ($9600 DK, $14000 FD), who might be headed toward double-digit targets in this one. Andrews didn't have two bad games in a row at any point in 2021, so it will be a disappointment if he struggles here. The third-most likely pass catcher for the Ravens is probably either Dobbins or Isaiah Likely ($1400 DK, $5500 FD). Wideouts James Proche ($200 DK, $5500 FD) and Tylan Wallace ($200 DK, $5000 FD) loom as additional candidates, but they tend to give Proche just the remaining slot snaps and Wallace just the remaining outside snaps. Tight end Josh Oliver ($200 DK, $5500 FD) hasn't been used much as a route runner to this point but is actually more athletic than Likely.

KICKERS

No explanation is necessary for Justin Tucker ($4000 DK, $9000 FD), who is always capable of memorable kicking production. If Tucker isn't the best kicker in the league then it might be Evan McPherson ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) on the other side. Particularly if the under hits, both of these kickers could play big roles in both the real game and the showdown slate.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

There's certainly the potential for sloppy play in this game on offense, it's just less clear whether either defense is likely to capitalize, especially to the extent necessary to cash in showdown slates. It's obvious that the Bengals offense is a pass rush liability and Burrow certainly tosses up his share of turnovers, but the Ravens ($4200 DK, $9500 FD) have a below average pass rush and particularly if Peters is out at corner they will have below average cornerback personnel. That's particularly problematic against a team with two No. 1 wideouts like Cincinnati has. The Baltimore offense seems less likely to take sacks or give away turnovers, though the odds are certainly better than usual with Bateman out. The Bengals ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) have at least one impact player at each level of their defense, so they should be able to make disruptive plays if the Ravens offense struggles.