Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 12 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Ravens - In 2013, the Saints were the best home offense, averaging 6.6 YPP. In 2014 though, the offense has taken a dip, averaging just 5.9 YPP at home, which is eighth best. QB Drew Brees is having another good season, but it hasn't been one of those top five QBs in the league, possible MVP consideration, type seasons, as he ranks 11th in YPA (7.37) and has thrown the fourth most interceptions this season (10). He is still spreading the ball around, as he normally does, but his receiving options this season have been up-and-down, as he's adjusted to rookie Brandin Cooks, injuries to TE Jimmy Graham and his pass catching backs, and the loss of Darren Sproles. Cooks is out for the season due to a thumb injury, so going forward Brees will need to rely more on WR Marques Colston, who in his seventh year in the league, isn't having nearly the same impact he had when he was younger. This season he has only one touchdown, which is surprising. The Ravens are an average pass defense, ranking 15th in YPA (6.9). Without DB Jimmy Smith (foot) though, they are likely below average or worse. The Titans couldn't expose them in Week 10, but the Steelers sure did in Week 9. Coming out of the bye, I would expect the Ravens to have addressed this area of concern. Thankfully they're excellent against the run, allowing just 3.4 YPC, which is tied for third best in the league. RB Mark Ingram has looked reenergized this season and is averaging 4.5 YPC. If the Ravens can shut him down and force the Saints into more passing situations than they're comfortable with, they may find some success. This is somewhat what happened against the Bengals, where they were held to just 2.9 YPC and threw the ball 41 times. It's doubtful that at home on MNF the Saints will come out flat again, but then again this a team two games under .500 that has just lost back-to-back home games. I'm concerned for the Ravens secondary, but without Cooks to target and no real passing threat out of the backfield like in seasons past with Pierre Thomas (shoulder) still out, this is likely not a Saints offense to automatically avoid. Vegas has this over/under set at 50 with the Saints favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 27-23 game. Facing the Saints on the road, the Ravens defense/special teams has an ownership of 34.9 percent at ESPN and 46 percent at Yahoo.

Cowboys - Was Eli Manning's performance against the 49ers a harbinger of things to come or an outlier? I'm inclined to believe the latter, as before last week, he had thrown two interceptions in his last seven games. For his career against the Cowboys he has a 7.56 YPA with a 41:22 TD:INT ratio and 90.6 QB passer rating. Earlier this season when these two teams met in Dallas, Eli had three touchdowns with 248 yards, a 7.5 YPA, and that was without WR Victor Cruz. But after last week's performance, how much do you trust him? The Cowboys are coming off a bye, which can only help, as before their break they had given up 7.3 YPA, which ranks tied for 23rd in the league. The biggest matchup for the Cowboys defense in this game is actually the matchup their running game has with the Giants defense because if they can run the ball at will against the Giants and dictate the tempo of the game and play keep-away, then their defense won't have to be on the field as much and has a lower chance of being exposed. I fully expect for this to happen, as the Giants have the worst run defense in the league, giving up 4.9 YPC on the season and a league worst 5.6 YPC in the last three weeks. If the Cowboys know what's good for them, they'll exploit this weakness and run right at the Giants over and over again. The Cowboys aren't great at stopping the run themselves, giving up 4.4 YPC. If the Giants look to exploit that matchup and they too decide to run the ball at Dallas, expect a lower scoring game. This is exactly what I thought would happen last time these two teams played each other, but in that game RB Rashad Jennings wasn't available due to a sprained MCL. He's available now though, which should help the Giants offense out greatly, as he's a viable pass catching option, which is something the offense lacks with Andre Williams in the game. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will cover rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr., who routinely makes highlight reel catches, as he has some of the best hands in the league. I like that the Cowboys are coming off a bye and at 3-7 the Giants may have finally quit on their coach and season, but I'm still skeptical that they will roll over and die in such a big game on SNF. Vegas has this over/under set at 47.5 with the Cowboys favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 26-22 game. Facing the Giants on the road, the Cowboys defense/special teams has an ownership of 28.5 percent at ESPN and 21 percent at Yahoo.

Browns - The Falcons average 7.1 YPP in home games this season, which is tops in the NFL. On the surface that sounds imposing, but dig deeper and you realize they torched the Saints for 8.2 YPP Week 1, did likewise to the Bucs in Week 3 for 7.5 YPP, fell back down to Earth against the Bears in Week 6 for 5.3 YPP, and that's it, as they played the Lions in London, which is a neutral field. Those three defenses they faced are among the worst in the league this season and one of them they didn't even do that well against in the Bears. Based on that, I'm not willing to say that the Falcons are still an offense to be feared at home and if anything I think they're overvalued. The Browns defense this season has given up 5.3 YPP, which ranks tied for seventh in the league this season. In particular they're pretty good against the pass, ranking tie for sixth in YPA (6.3). Over his last six games, Falcons QB Matt Ryan has five times thrown for one TD or less and five times thrown for less than 275 yards. In three of his last four games he has actually thrown for 230 yards or less. In Week 10, coming off a bye week, I was expecting him to torch the Bucs, who are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and he came up flat with 219 yards and only one TD. The team didn't do well either, averaging only 5.4 YPP. Where the Falcons may find some real success this week is on the ground, as the Browns give up 4.6 YPC, which ranks tied for 29th in the league. Last week it showed as Texans RB Alfred Blue racked up 4.3 YPC, while backup Jonathan Grimes had 4.2 YPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see RB Steven Jackson have a nice game, though he did next to nothing against the Panthers last week, who also have a porous run defense. Rookie RB Devonta Freeman actually scares me more in this matchup, as he has done more with his limited carries this season than Jackson has. Personally, I look forward to watching DB Joe Haden against WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White. Both should be posting better numbers than they are this season, but their offensive line hasn't gotten the job done, which is leaving Ryan in situations where he's got to get rid of the ball sooner than he would like. Our own offensive line rankings back this up, as they're ranked second to last in the league. If they continue this level of play against the Browns, I'd expect at least a couple sacks. The only thing that worries me is that at 4-6 the Falcons are actually in a position to play for something, as they're tied for the division lead in the NFC South. Still, this is a team that lost five games in a row a few weeks ago and after their showing in London, looked like their head coach Mike Smith was ready to find a job as a coordinator next season. Vegas has this over/under set at 47 with the Falcons favored by 3, which puts this at about a 25-22 game. Facing the Falcons on the road, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 31.3 percent at ESPN and 40 percent at Yahoo.

Bears - The Bucs just blew the doors off the Redskins and have their whole organization in recovery mode, after they beat them 27-7 and outgunned them 7.2 to 4.7 in YPP. Lost in that though was that the Bucs running game is still garbage. RB Charles Sims had 13 carries for a total of 36 yards and that wasn't even the worst performance, as Bobby Rainey had five carries for four yards. This should come as no surprise, as the Bucs have no identity in their running game, as they've gone from Doug Martin to Rainey to now Sims, none of which have produced consistently for them. The Bears are average against the run, giving up 4.3 YPC, which ranks tied for 17th. In the passing game, I'm not sure how the Redskins didn't realize this, but the Bucs only have one option and that's WR Mike Evans. The veteran Vincent Jackson is averaging 13.0 YPC, which is the lowest mark of his 10 year career and has only two TDs on the season. He has also only caught 46.7 percent of the passes thrown his way, which ranks 106th in the league among all WRs. To me, it's clear that he's either on the significant down slope of his career or dealing with some injury that the media doesn't know about. Back to Evans, he scares me. He's ranked fifth overall among WRs by Pro Football Focus and at 6'5", 231 lbs, plays very physically. Giving up an average of 7.8 YPA, which ranks second to last in the league, the Bears would be wise to roll as much coverage over to him as possible. QB Josh McCown has a 7.53 YPA this season with a 6:6 TD:INT ratio. I would fear him more if he had more than one weapon to go to, but after Evans and Jackson, there's really not anything left. Last week five players not named Evans or Jackson were targeted 10 times and they caught five passes for 36 yards. As for the Bears recently, they got back on the right side of things last week against the Vikings at home, in what was only their fourth home game of the season. Again at home, I think the Bucs offense will me much more akin to what they saw from the Vikings, than the Packers or Patriots, who battered and bruised them in Week 8 and 10. Vegas has this over/under set at 46 with the Bears favored by 5.5, which puts this at about a 26-20 game. Facing the Bucs at home, the Bears defense/special teams has an ownership of 11.8 percent at ESPN and 41 percent at Yahoo.

Jets - Practice? That's right, we talking about practice because this week the Bills have not been able to have any, as snow has prevented them from really doing anything this week in upstate New York. The same will likely hold true on Thursday, as more snow is expected. This should help the Jets, who have been able to go through their normal schedule this week, as they prepare for a game that might not even be played until Tuesday because of the weather. Weather aside, the biggest question heading into this game is who will be under center for the Bills this week, as Kyle Orton has produced a 5.2 YPA over the last two weeks, granted, he faced stiff competition in the Chiefs and Dolphins. Still, the team seems to be headed towards going with him again this week and it's somewhat tough to blame them, considering he threw for four TDs in Week 8 against the Jets on the road. Weather conditions might actually be fine come game time, but so while the weather is a concern for preparation, it might not actually effect the pace or style of game we see. It's also worth noting that Orton is dealing with a toe injury, so even if he does play, he might not be as mobile as he normally is. The Jets need a break like this, as their pass defense has given up 7.2 YPA, which ranks tied for 21st. If the weather can slow down Orton and WR Sammy Watkins, the Jets run defense should be able to do the rest, as they rank third in YPC (3.4). RB Fred Jackson is still coming back from his groin injury, but is expected to play in tandem with Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon. The trio ran well against the Chiefs in Week 10, but then fell flat against the Dolphins and are likely to do so again, against the stout Jets run defense. If the Bills make the smart choice and go with EJ Manuel, then I could possibly see them getting the offense going again, as he's more mobile. If this game is played Sunday, you have to imagine the Jets have a competitive advantage being able to practice right now, while the Bills watch to see which schools are closed on the TV. Vegas has this over/under set at 39 with the Bills favored by 4.5, which puts this at about a 22-17 game. Facing the Bills on the road, the Jets defense/special teams has an ownership of 2.1 percent at ESPN and 3 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Browns (vs Texans) - 23 points allowed, 1 interception

Packers (vs Eagles) - 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 TDs

Vikings (@ Bears) - 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions

Redskins (vs Bucs) - 21 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Bears (vs Vikings) - 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception