This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Philadelphia Eagles 
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Super Wild Card Weekend
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The Eagles come into this wild-card clash in a certified funk, given the way their season ended and the fact it's now confirmed they'll play this game without top receiver A.J. Brown (knee). Philadelphia lost five of its last six games, a stretch during which the defending NFC champs sustained 23- and 20-point losses to the 49ers and Cowboys, respectively, and also took an embarrassing four-point home defeat at the hands of the lowly Cardinals.
Conversely, the Buccaneers ride into the postseason with some momentum, managing to secure the crown of the admittedly mediocre NFC South by prevailing in five of the last six games. Tampa Bay managed to record 29 or more points in three of those wins, including in a road victory versus the Packers and a home triumph against the Jaguars.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds for Super Wild Card Weekend
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Eagles -142 (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Buccaneers +125 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Eagles -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Buccaneers +3 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 43 points (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Under 43.5 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)
The spread for this game remains relatively stable as of midday Saturday, even in the immediate wake of the news Brown will sit out the contest. The Eagles had opened as 2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks when the game went on the board following Week 18, and they'd been bet up to as much as 3. That remains the case despite the Brown news as of Saturday.
The projected total opened at 44.5 points, and it had been narrowing even before the Brown news. The number is now down to between 43 and 43.5 points as of Saturday, with further shrinking certainly possible before Monday night's kickoff.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks This Week
The Eagles' aforementioned late-season swoon featured some particularly underwhelming play at times from Jalen Hurts, who threw for under 200 yards in three of his last four full games and tossed five picks in his last four contests overall. Hurts did have to navigate the absence of DeVonta Smith due to an ankle injury in Week 18, and naturally, he'll now be operating sans top-target Brown for this wild-card matchup.
Nevertheless, Philly's air attack is better prepared to adapt than might be evident on the surface. For starters, Smith is back in the fold and apparently back to full health after practicing in full all week. The speedy third-year pro was a success as a No. 1 receiver in this offense as a rookie in 2021 while working with a much-more inexperienced Hurts, producing a 64-916-5 line in that role. With Brown out, Julio Jones, who turned three of his 11 catches this season into touchdowns and may have more left in the tank than appears evident after such sparse usage, is likely to elevate into a No. 2 role. Then, tight end Dallas Goedert appears locked in for a bigger pass-catching role and has the talent to thrive with the opportunity against a Bucs defense that gave up the second-most catches (102) and third-most receiving yards (1,077) and touchdown receptions (seven) to his position this season.
And finally, D'Andre Swift, considered one of the better receivers at the running back position during his time in Detroit but underutilized in that capacity during his first Philly season, is likely to see some extra targets as well. In fact, Swift could be one of the biggest keys to my prediction of an Eagles victory, considering he gained 130 rushing yards on 16 carries against the Bucs back in a Week 3 victory at Raymond James Stadium and Tampa Bay also surrendered a robust 76-448-2 line through the air to RBs during the regular season. Speaking of the running game, it also bears noting the Bucs gave up six rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season, which paints a favorable picture given Hurts' abilities and the unqualified success of the Brotherly Shove all season.
The other piece of the puzzle for Philly is a healthier defense. Darius Slay stated this week that he feels "a thousand times better" than he had prior to having arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-December, and he'll be back in his usual starting role. Zach Cunningham is also over his recent knee troubles, and many of the front-line players on the unit got extra rest in Week 18 via light usage.
The Bucs have accomplished more than expected largely due to an unexpectedly successful season from Baker Mayfield, and the ascension of Rachaad White into a bona fide dual threat as a lead back. However, I see a rested and resurgent Eagles defense rising up here to cause some turnover-inducing pressure, and a prideful conference champion simply stepping up its level of play, perhaps even circling the wagons more due to the unavailability of Brown.
Eagles at Buccaneers Best Bets: Eagles -2.5 (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
Eagles 24, Buccaneers 20
As alluded to earlier, the Eagles have the pride and mettle of a battle-tested squad and defending conference champion. Brown's absence may be a highly ominous sign to some bettors, and while it undoubtedly impacts Philadelphia's offensive plans, this is where I think Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Brian Johnson – not to mention Hurts, Smith, Swift and Goedert, among others – earn their keep. The Eagles' defense should also benefit from being the healthiest it's been in a while, and they'll do enough to make "bad Baker" emerge on a couple of ill-timed occasions and help secure a narrow road victory.
