Payne's Perspective: Players to Target

After having some time to digest the result of the Super Bowl, I thought it would be a good time to get back to writing about football. I cannot remember a Super Bowl where I was more wrong (and I was sure the Bills would win Super Bowl XXV against the a Phils Simms-less Giants). Give credit to the Tampa Bay defense; betting on holding the Chiefs to less than 10 points had to be going off at least 4:1 odds and likely more. ...

• Speaking of the Chiefs, if I set the over/under for Mahomes Super Bowl wins at a total of 3.5, which way would you lean? He'll be in his prime for at least the next five to eight years and is surrounded by plenty of talent (imagine if they had gotten JuJu Smith-Schuster to go there). That said, it's one thing to get to the Super Bowl and another to win it, as Mahomes learned last season. ...

• If the Washington Football Team can find its quarterback of the future in the next year or two, look out. The team is littered with young talent and if Curtis Samuel proves to be a competent No. 2 wide receiver to Terry McLaurin, Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a very interesting fantasy option this season. Can FitzMagic be a top-12 option at the position and thus be an option for fantasy managers on draft day? Probably not. He turns 39 this November and with a very strong defense (in particular, the defensive line) the Washington Football Team might not be in many high-scoring games this season. I would consider targeting the defense for fantasy purposes given its high upside. ...

• In my hometown keeper league that started three years ago (before the season), I was fortunate enough to have the vision to draft both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. I just dealt Watson (you can keep 18 players, have all the free agents and college players to draft) for picks 3.5 and 3.7 (picks 29 and 31). What are the chances Watson never sees the football field again? Fifty percent, higher, lower? It wouldn't be surprising to see the NFL come down hard with a stiff penalty for Watson. Remember, even if charges are never filed, the NFL can still lay down a big suspension. It'll be interesting to see if this is enough for teams to "backlist" Watson (remember Ray Rice?) or if someone will give him a second chance. (*Note: not making an assumptions or accusations here against Watson.) ...

• Players I intend to target in my upcoming drafts:

Saquon Barkley - I don't think he goes in the top-5 picks coming off the horrendous knee injury. That said, the injury happened early in the season and he has plenty of rehab time to get right before September. Also, the Giants have upgraded their offensive line which can only help here. Barring a significant setback, I'd happily daft him the second half of the first round.

Justin Jefferson - Quick, without looking if I told you the over/under on Jefferson's receiving yards in 2020 was 1,399.5 which way would you go? Jefferson finished with 1,400 receiving yards and his seven receiving touchdowns seems fluky given that amount of receiving yards. He turns 22 on June 16 and appears to just be scratching the surface of his talent. Having teammates Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook help keeps pressure off him, and while they have their own fantasy value, their presences only help Jefferson's value.

Stefon Diggs - I'm not sure how a receiver is so low on cheat sheets considering he's coming off a season with 1,535 receiving yards on 166 targets. He gets the advantage of playing with Josh Allen (who also probably hasn't hit his peak yet) and was lucky enough that the Bills retained the services of Brian Daboll this offseason. Like Jefferson, the eight receiving touchdowns seems a bit fluky given the number of receiving yards and it wouldn't be surprising to see Diggs hit double-digits this season.  

DJ Chark - While he's coming off a disappointing season marred by injury, Chark was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2019 and has a ton of upside. He's a legit No. 1 wide receiver on a team that should see improved quarterback play this season. Chark will only cost a fifth- or sixth-round pick and is the perfect complement if you go heavy on running backs early in your draft.

Michael Thomas - We now know that Thomas played through with multiple injuries in 2020. However, this guy has been a first-round pick the last few seasons, especially in PPR leagues. There will be questions about both his help and the quarterback spot heading into the season, but getting him in the fifth or sixth rounds seems like it's worth the gamble based on past performances.

Tua Tagovailoa - We hear it every year: "wait on drafting a quarterback." It's worked in previous seasons if you've gotten Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in their breakout seasons. Tua is being set up for nothing but success heading into his sophomore season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no longer a threat to playing time, and it's highly, very highly, unlikely Trevor Lawrence will be there at the third pick in the draft. The Dolphins added Will Fuller (ineligible to play until Week 2), who with Preston Williams and DeVante Parker make for a formidable trio of wide receivers. Mike Gesicki's arrow is pointing upward as well, giving Tua a player to do the dirty work over the middle of the field. Would I count on Tua being my starting quarterback in fantasy? The answer is no, but I'd grab him for my bench considering his upside.

AJ Dillon - Jamaal Williams has left town and leaves behind 154 touches that when added to Dillon's touches last season (48) equals 202 touches for Dillon. In a small sample, Dillon averaged 5.3 yards per carry, meaning 1,000 yards from scrimmage is in the cards if he stays healthy. Of course, should Aaron Jones miss time due to injury those numbers could grow, and playing with Aaron Rodgers in the Matt LaFleur system can only help Dillon's fantasy prospects.

Kyle Pitts - Who? Pitts isn't a household name yet, but you're going to want to get know him by your league's draft day. He's a 20-year-old rookie tight end who played at Florida last season and racked up 12 receiving touchdowns in only eight games. At 6-foot-6, 240, he runs a 4.46 40, which is incredible for someone with that type of frame. He's projected to go in the top-5 of most mock drafts and could ultimately be considered a wide receiver instead of a tight end. However, he should carry that tight end designation in almost every format for at least this season, making him a very valuable fantasy player.

Next column in this series? Players to avoid this fantasy football season. Stay tuned.