This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Cowboys Win Totals
Betting team wins and other full-season futures requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
Additionally projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Dallas Cowboys over 10.5 wins at +145 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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Cowboys Outlook: Offense
Over the years, I haven't given coach Mike McCarthy a lot of credit. Last year, he made a brilliant move. During the Week 6 bye, it appeared that the coach realized the Cowboys lacked a sustaining rushing attack. As a result, Dallas went to a pass heavy attack with Dak Prescott at the controls.
The team moved CeeDee Lamb all around the formation to find him the best matchups. Also, Jake Ferguson became a reliable seam stretcher. The team scored at least 28 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Prescott had seven games with at least 299 passing yards, and Lamb had eight games with at least 98 receiving yards. With Tony Pollard gone, and Ezekiel Elliott in to replace him, the rushing attack projects to be weak again. Look for the Cowboys to pick up where they left off with their passing attack. This should be a top-five scoring unit.
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Cowboys Outlook: Defense
When Dan Quinn was coaching the defense, he did many good things. However, Dallas paid no attention to stopping opposing rushing attacks. As a result, teams exposed that weakness and dealt the Cowboys some difficult defeats. With Quinn now in Washington, Mike Zimmer has taken over the defense.
Over the years, Zimmer has been one of the better coaches in the league. Zimmer is excellent at weaponizing his top pass rushers. Led by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, the pass rush should be one of the best in the league. Also, in 2023, Dallas played one of the highest rates of man coverage in the secondary. In a league that plays 73 percent zone, Zimmer is expected to transition the defense to much more zone looks to help limit explosive plays.
Finally, instead of a defense that often left one linebacker in to stop the run, Zimmer will likely commit a pair of linebackers. That should keep opponents from gashing Dallas on the ground. Look for the Cowboys to have an excellent defense in 2024.
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Cowboys Schedule 2024
In the division, Dallas will have four games against the Giants and Commanders. They also will face the NFC South, and the Cowboys should be favored in each of those games. That said, the AFC slate, which includes the AFC North along with the Houston Texans, is far from favorable. Overall, the schedule seems a bit tougher than neutral.
Best Bet for 2024 Cowboys Win Total
I am recommending the Dallas Cowboys over 10.5 wins at +145 odds. These odds can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook. Knowing that the offense finally has an identity that they not only can follow, but dominate with, will keep Dallas in most of the tough games on the schedule. In addition, the team should be able to build up big leads against the weaker teams. Also, I expect the defense to be more complete than it was in 2023. The Cowboys are a team that should win 11 or 12 games.
