This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Where is the Offense in 2023?
Two weeks ago, the NFL had two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and now the top-record teams are the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs at 6-1 straight-up (SU). The San Francisco 49ers were the other undefeated team through the first five weeks, but they lost their last two games at the Cleveland Browns in Week 6 and last week losing on Monday Night Football at the Minnesota Vikings.
Scoring in the NFL is down significantly for the season with the average team scoring just 21.70 points per game, which is the lowest in 15 seasons. In 2009, teams averaged 21.58 PPG, and scoring peaked in the 2020 season (no fans) at 24.75 PPG. Other than 2020, the next highest scoring season was in 2013 when teams averaged 23.43 PPG. So, scoring is now down for the fourth consecutive season since 2020.
The NFL scoring trends are lower and are attributed to the lowest quarterback rating in the past five seasons at 104.20 and does reflect the number of rookie signal callers and the overall lack of solid and consistent execution. There is no wonder why the Eagles have the best record in the NFL as they have elected to establish a formidable ground attack to counteract the defensive schemes designed to not get beat on deep vertical routes.
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The Under has been a Remarkable Winning Trend
For the season, the Under has gone 66-41 for 59.4% winning bets through 7 weeks, and at its current pace would easily be the highest win percentage since at least 1989. The next highest Under win rate for a season was last year at 55%. The highest Under win percentage for any week since 1989 occurred in Week 3 of the 1991 season with a 13-1 record for 93% winners. For the 1993 season, the Under went 114-105 for 51%. So, this Under trend is clearly unsustainable and the market is going to overreact and set up terrific situational betting opportunities on the OVER in the weeks ahead.
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NFL Week 8 Best Bet Opportunity
New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST, October 29
Lucas Oil Stadium
The New Orleans Saints (3-4, 2-2 Away) are on the road in Week 8 to take on the Indianapolis Colts (3-4, 1-3 Home) and find themselves priced as 1-point favorites and with a game total of 43.5 points. Saints' quarterback Derek Carr has thrown for 1600 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions and completed 163 passes of 255 pass attempts. With the Colts' rookie quarterback sensation Anthony Richardson on the injured reserve list, they have turned to veteran journeyman Gardner Minshew, who has completed 65% of his 161 pass attempts gaining 1,187 yards including five touchdowns and four interceptions. His quarterback rating is just 61.3 and Carr has a terrible 48.1 QBR for the season.
The Best NFL Algorithm For Week 8
The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 41-18 Over record good for 69% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet the Over that is priced between 43 and 50 points, with a team averaging between 6.75 and 7.50 yards per pass attempt, is coming off a game having averaged 8 or more yards per pass attempt, and facing a defense that is allowing between 5.25 and 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
If we drill down a bit further, and filter games from Week 8 on out to the end of the season, this OVER situational betting record improves to a remarkable 28-7 for 80% winning bets since 1990.
NFL DFS Considerations
Based on the Over Best Bet for this matchup, Derek Carr is cheap at $5,500 on DraftKings. Minshew is priced at $5,400 and is a viable consideration to add as a solid contrarian selection in your DFS lineups. The Colts' running back Zack Moss, priced at $5,700 is another player on my DFS radar. He has gained 523 rushing yards averaging a solid 4.6 YPC including four rushing touchdowns. Establishing the ground attack will open high-percentage vertical routes in man coverage for the Colts, which makes Michael Pittman, priced at $6,500 an attractive player for any DFS lineup.
The Game Projections from the Predictive Models
The models project that both teams will average a minimum of 5.5 yards per play. In games in which the Colts and their foes both gained 5.5 or more, YPPL saw the Over produce a 15-5 record for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Saints have seen the Over go 11-1 for 92% winning bets in games in which they and their foes gain a minimum of 5.5 YPPL since 2019.
My Best Bet for Week 8 is on the Over in the Saints vs Colts matchup currently priced at 43.5 points by Draftkings. Be sure to check out our NFL odds page to find the best prices available across the best sports betting sites before locking in your wager this week.
