Beating the Book: NFL Week 15 ATS Picks and Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 15 edition of Beating the Book!

At long last, we've reached the end of bye weeks for the season, so we'll have a full, 16-game slate this week and for the rest of the season.

After a rocky Week 14 in which we went 10-3 SU but just 5-8 ATS, we're looking to get back on track. The slate is packed with tight spreads, as eight games carry a number of 3.5 or shorter. 

One of six teams coming out of a bye, the Baltimore Ravens are far and away the biggest favorites of the week, with the spread ballooning up to 16.0. Only one other team (Washington) is favored by at least a touchdown, while the Vikings and Cardinals are each giving at least 6.0 points at home.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 15 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 14:

Giants +5.0 vs. Saints: The Saints controlled the entire game but were never able to run and hide, and the Giants nearly forced overtime at the end of regulation.

Packers +3.5 at Lions: While Green Bay once again struggled to get off the field on defense, the Packers' offense did enough to make this a field-goal game.

Worst calls of Week 14:

Eagles -12.0 vs. Panthers: We took the bait and Philly, of course, got off to a sluggish start and never pulled away from a Panthers team that was able to sustain drives against one of the NFL's best defenses.

Titans -3.5 vs. Jaguars: We've made the mistake of trusting the Titans for two straight weeks. Even with Mac Jones tossing two bad picks, Tennessee could not take advantage.

Last week: 5-8 ATS; 10-3 SU; best bet lost (Bills -4.5)

On the season: 106-99-3 ATS; 142-66 SU; 5-7-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Total: 49.5

The Rams are coming off of one of the most impressive wins of the season, rolling up 44 points on the Bills to hold in a home victory. Los Angeles did allow 42 points, however, and it took a herculean offensive effort to hang on, thanks in part to the Bills declining to cover Puka Nacua for the entire afternoon.

Can the Rams summon that kind of game for a second straight week? I'm not so sure. Even against a depleted Niners defense, you have to think San Francisco will be better prepared and won't allow the Rams to convert 12-of-16 third and fourth downs.

The potential absence of Isaac Guerendo – meaning the Niners would be down to their fourth RB – could loom large, but I like the Niners to figure out a way to win at home and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The pick: 49ers 26 – Rams 23

Sunday Early Slate

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -2.5

Total: 43.5

Really tricky game to kick off the early window. While Carolina has dropped three in a row, one could argue that they've played their three best games of the season in one-score losses to Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Panthers probably should've won straight up last week – looking at you, Xavier Legette – and they absolutely should have taken down the Bucs in Week 13 (looking at you, Chuba Hubbard).

Bryce Young continues to progress and avoid negative plays, and the Panthers' run game is giving them just enough to sustain long drives. However, the defense remains a major liability. While Carolina kept Saquon Barkley in check, relatively speaking, the Eagles still ran for 200 yards as a team and racked up well over six yards per carry. 

On the other side, Dallas is just as bad against the run, so this is something of a weakness-on-weakness matchup. The Cowboys have been able to get their running game off the ground of late, running for 122 on the Giants and 156 on Cincinnati on Monday night.

Ultimately, I see this as a close, back-and-forth game that could go either way. But with the number sitting at 2.5, we'll take Carolina to win by a field goal.

The pick: Panthers 24 – Cowboys 21

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Chiefs -4.5

Total: 44.5

The Chiefs continue to be one of the most difficult teams to value, yet at the same time, they've shown us who they are throughout the season. Kansas City is mostly incapable of running away with games, but no one has perfected late-game, gotta-have-it execution like Patrick Mahomes. 

Virtually every Chiefs game feels like a lock to come down to the final possession or two, but an opponent like Cleveland introduces a tremendous amount of variance – some positive, some negative. It was more so the latter that was on display last week against Pittsburgh, as Jameis Winston tossed two picks and Cleveland converted just 2-of-13 third downs in a 13-point loss. Still, the Browns' defense held the Steelrs to just 267 total yards, and Cleveland had chance after chance to make it a game in the second half.

Playing on the road in Cleveland, I don't necessarily see this as a trip-up spot for Kansas City, but I would be surprised if the Chiefs win convincingly – something they really haven't done in almost two months. 

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Browns 20

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -2.5

Total: 47.0

We're going to go ahead and make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week right off the bat. Credit to Miami for surviving in overtime against the Jets, but that was a semi-alarming performance by the Dolphins' defense, which gave up Aaron Rodgers' first 300-yard game since 2021.

Offensively, the Dolphins were able to hang around and convert a couple of clutch field goals. And while both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were productive, the lack of true explosive plays remains a concern. Miami's running game also continues to be a complete disaster. Over the last five games, they've run for just 67, 82, 65, 39 and 44 yards as a team. 

On the other side, Houston comes out of its bye in need of an offensive jolt. For most of the season, the Texans have had to grind out games and survive a not-nearly-as-good-as-we-thought passing game. The return of Nico Collins has certainly helped, but Houston is coming off of a loss to Tennessee and a win over Jacksonville in which they were out-gained by a Mac Jones-led offense.

With concerns on both sides, I'll default to the home team with the significant rest advantage. This is the Stay-Away of the Week for a reason, but we'll take Houston to win by a field goal.

The pick: Texans 27 – Dolphins 24

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jets -3.0

Total: 40.5

Buckle up. We have before us one of the most meaningless games in NFL history. One could argue that draft positioning is on the line, but… that's about it. Mac Jones vs. Aaron Rodgers. A rivalry as old as time.

Even as a Jaguars fan, I struggle with how to value this team. Jones was mostly bad last week against Tennessee, and yet the Titans refused to put away a game they should've had sealed up in the third quarter. I credit most of that to Tennessee being Tennessee, rather than Jacksonville having figured out some sort of formula with Jones at the helm.

When it comes to the Jets, our strategy of simply picking against them every week will be tested here. In Week 14, the Jets once again found a way to lose, but they played their best offensive game of the season, racking up 402 total yards for their first 400-yard game since Week 3 against New England. It was also the Jets' first game over 300 total yards since Week 8.

I absolutely would not trust either of these teams, but the Jets have significantly better offensive weapons and should be a bit healthier on defense this week. Expect the Jags' defense to keep then in it, but I like the Jets to eventually pull away and cover.

The pick: Jets 21 – Jaguars 16

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Commanders -7.0

Total: 43.0

The Saints have now reeled off three wins in their last four games, and they played the Rams tough in Week 13, but they'll be without Derek Carr, who suffered a broken left hand late in last week's 14-11 shootout against the Giants. That means we're back to either Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler this week – not a good sign for a Saints offense already down Chris Olave and Taysom Hill.

Washington is coming out of a bye and looking to solidify a playoff spot, so I don't see this as a letdown spot for a team that got back on track in a big way with a Week 13 decimation of the Titans. Even with a backup, the Saints may be able to muck this game up, but I like Washington to go on the road and take care of business. 

In the three games without Carr earlier this season, New Orleans was outscored 110 to 45. We're not going to overthink this one.

The pick: Commanders 27 – Saints 17

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

Spread: Ravens -16.0

Total: 43.0

Here we have easily our biggest spread of the week and the only number currently sitting above 7.0. With Baltimore coming out of a bye, this should be a smash spot for the Ravens, while the Giants are looking to bounce back from yet another crushing loss.

On paper, the Giants have almost no advantages. The Ravens should be able to bludgeon them on the ground, though the run defense did hold up surprisingly well last week without Dexter Lawrence. Regardless, replicating that against Baltimore is a much more difficult task.

With the Ravens in need of a confidence-boosting win, I could see this getting completely out of hand. But Lamar Jackson has been shaky as a passer of late, and the Ravens' pass defense has been susceptible to mistakes and big plays all season.

Even so, I don't see this as a letdown spot for Baltimore coming out of a bye. We'll take the bait (again) and trust the Ravens to shut down Tyrone Tracy, run it up and cover the number.

One thing to monitor: Derrick Henry did cut his dreads over the bye week.

The pick: Ravens 33 – Giants 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Bengals -4.5

Total: 47.0

Interesting spot for the Bengals, who head out for a second straight road game after playing at Dallas on Monday night. Cincinnati ultimately took care of business, but, had it not been for a flukey blocked punt/recovery late in the fourth quarter, they were in danger of letting yet another close game slip away. 

Obviously, the Cincy defense remains an immense liability, but it did buckle down in some key spots last week, and the Bengals' offense rolled up 433 yards of total offense.

Tennessee has had success against the run this season, so this may not be an explosive day for Chase Brown, but the Titans' pass defense is exploitable. The season-long metrics are a bit misleading, in my eyes, as Tennessee has faced a number of bad quarterbacks. Against what I would define as good-to-great QBs – Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels – the Titans are 1-5 SU with all five losses coming by double-digits.

With as shaky as the Bengals' defense is, I expect Tennessee to make this a game, but I don't see the Titans' 30th-ranked pass offense doing enough to cover the 4.5.  

The pick: Bengals 27 – Titans 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -6.5

Total: 46.0

On to the afternoon slate, where the NFL schedule-makers have gifted us not two, not three, not four, but five games in the late window. After dropping three straight games – including two to Seattle – the Cardinals' playoff hopes are on life support, and this is clearly a must-win spot. 

I liked Arizona last week, but following an opening-drive touchdown, Kyler Murray threw back-to-back bad interceptions, allowing Seattle to build a two-score lead in the first half. The Cardinals' offense has struggled to generate big play all season, and the running game has been hit or miss, so we knew what we were signing up for.

But the Cardinals' defense had a major letdown game, failing to get after Geno Smith – first time all season he was not sacked – and allowing Seattle to run up 409 yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play – far and away its best mark of the season.

Welcoming in the Patriots could be the bounceback Arizona desperately needs, but the Pats are no pushover with Drake Maye infusing life into the passing game. I don't see the Cardinals losing a fourth straight game straight-up, but I do like New England to do just enough to cover the 6.5

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Patriots 20

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3.5

Total: 44.0

Huge game in Denver as far as the AFC playoff picture is concerned. A win for Denver would go a long way toward securing a Wild Card spot, while a win for the Colts would keep them alive both in the AFC South and in the Wild Card picture. 

Entering Sunday at 8-5, the Broncos hold a 2.0-game lead over Indy and Miami for the final Wild Card spot. But the Broncos don't have any gimmes left on the schedule. After the Colts, they'll face the Chargers (in LA) the Bengals (in Cincy) and the Chiefs (at home) to finish out the regular season. Meanwhile, the Colts have one of the softer remaining schedules, but a loss here would essentially mean they have to win out to have any shot at a postseason spot.

Anyway, both teams are coming out of a bye, so there's no significant rest or preparation advantage here. Indy has managed two one-point victories in its last two games, sandwiching a loss to the Lions in between those narrow wins over the Jets and Patriots.

Indy remains one of the most difficult teams to gauge on a week-to-week basis, due in large part to the feast or famine nature of Anthony Richardson. On balance, I like what I've seen from Richardson since he was reinstated as the starter, but going up against the Denver defense will be one of the toughest tests he's faced. 

With that said, Denver did give up 32 points to Jameis Winston in Week 13, though I do give the Broncos credit for surviving a third straight could this be a letdown spot? game. I keep waiting for Denver to trip up, and yet they've done nothing but take care of business against the average-to-bad teams in the NFL. All five of Denver's losses – SEA, PIT, LAC, BAL, KC – have come against teams with a winning record.

Don't be surprised if the Colts can hit enough big plays to potentially steal this game on the road, but we're going to keep rolling with Denver to force Richardson into mistakes and take advantage of a defense that's allowed at least 390 yards of offense in four of its last five games.

The pick: Broncos 28 – Colts 24

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -2.5

Total: 54.5

What a stretch of schedule for the Bills, who finish out a month-long gauntlet in Detroit after facing the Rams, Niners and Chiefs in their last three games. Buffalo took care of business against KC and blasted the Niners in the snow before coming up short last week, despite six (6) touchdowns from Josh Allen, who just may have locked up the MVP award in a loss.

I don't really hold last week's result against the Bills. It was a tough schedule spot and a near-must-win for LA, but Buffalo's inability to get stops and slow down Puka Nacua has to be at least a little bit concerning. We'll see if Rasul Douglas is able to play this week, but if not, it's easy to envision the Lions making this yet another shootout. That may not be a bad thing for Buffalo, though, as the Bills have scored at least 30 points in seven consecutive games. 

Playing at home with a rest advantage, Detroit is a justifiable short favorite. Since taking a thoroughly weird, early-season loss to the Bucs, the Lions have answered the bell every single week, including in last Thursday's showdown with the Packers. While Green Bay ripped off 6.6 yards per play and held a lead midway through the fourth quarter, Detroit dominated the yardage battle, ran 31 more plays, converted 11-of-20 third and fourth downs and possessed the ball for nearly 13 more minutes.

The Bills are an even tougher test than the Packers, however, and Josh Allen will present matchup issues for a still-very-banged-up Detroit defense.

It goes without saying that this should be a closely contested game that comes down to the final possession. Both teams have thrived in those situations this season, but I'll take Buffalo to get its act together defensively and hang on for a road victory.

The pick: Bills 33 – Lions 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Total: 46.0

Another game with a tight spread and major postseason implications on both sides – particularly for Tampa Bay, which officially overtook the Falcons for the NFC South lead last week. A good chunk of the credit goes to Atlanta for completely blowing their chance to run away with the division, but the Bucs have rallied back from a four-game losing streak to win their last three games.

Those three wins came against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders, however, so this will be Tampa's toughest test since hosting the Niners in Week 10. Both teams are banged up, so the injury report will be key, but if Ladd McConkey is back in the mix for the Chargers, I like LA to take advantage of a poor Bucs secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense EPA. We know for sure Tampa will be without Antoine Winfield and Bryce Hall, but another starting safety (Mike Edwards) could also miss this game.

Offensively, the Bucs have been able to roll against some bad defenses of late. The running game has been particularly impressive, though we'll need to monitor Bucky Irving, who departed last week's game with a back injury. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has committed five turnovers over the last two games – something he won't be able to get away with against a better opponent.

With the injury situations up in the air, we'll take the Chargers to win a tight game at home. But we may have to update the pick later in the week once we have clarity on McConkey, Irving and others.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Buccaneers 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -5.5

Total: 42.5

To finish out the late window, we're treated to The Battle for Pennsylvania as the Steelers look to hang around for a possible 2-seed in the AFC. Sitting at 11-2, the Eagles have essentially locked up a top-two spot in the NFC picture, but they're still waiting on a Lions slip-up to provide them with a chance at the first-round bye.

Last week was the ninth straight victory for Philly, but it wasn't nearly as convincing as some (me) expected. While the Eagles ran for over 200 yards, it was another sluggish, low-volume day for the Philly passing attack, which has prompted some… discussion, to say the least.

To Philly's credit, their run first, run second and run third philosophy has worked well, but the Eagles are dead-last in the NFL in pass attempts, and Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown for more than 230 yards since Week 8. At some point, the Eagles are going to need to develop a more reliable passing game, and that could be as soon as this week going up against one of the NFL's best and most versatile defenses.

For the Steelers' offense, the key will be finding ways to grind out consistent running production against the Eagles' defense. Pittsburgh threw for just 158 yards a week ago and likely will not have George Pickens for the second straight week.

The Pickens absence is huge, and I think it's enough to prevent Pittsburgh from winning outright, but I do see this as yet another close game that the Steelers can cover.

The pick: Eagles 23 – Steelers 20

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 46.5

This will be the third of four consecutive primetime spots for the Packers, who played on Thanksgiving night, Thursday night in Week 14 and will host the Saints on Monday Night Football next week. Both Green Bay and Seattle should feel good with where they sit in the NFC playoff picture, but Seattle, in particular, needs to keep winning to hold on to the top spot in the West.

As noted earlier, I did not see the Seahawks' performance coming last week. The defense has looked like a much-improved unit since the bye, but the offense – and especially the running game – had shown few signs of life. Zach Charbonnet stepping in for Kenneth Walker apparently sparked something, as Charbonnet recorded Seattle's first 100-yard game since Week 1.

Green Bay's defense, which held up reasonably well against Detroit's rushing attack last week, should provide more resistance, but the Packers are dealing with several key injuries on defense and were completely shredded by Jared Goff and Co. last week. As of publication, it's unclear who – if any – of Jaire Alexander, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard and Edgerrin Cooper – will be available come Sunday night.

Offensively, Green Bay is up to No. 2 in the NFL in yards per play, but they've become one of the lowest-volume offenses in the NFL (25th in total plays). Part of that is their penchant for hitting big plays, but it's also an indictment of the defense struggling to get off the field in recent weeks.

On balance, I like the Packers to regroup and win this game, provided they get enough bodies back on defense. Geno Smith is coming off of one of his better games of the season, but he's still a mistake and sack-prone quarterback, while Seattle ranks fourth in the NFL in total penalties.

As far as the game total is concerned, keep an eye on the forecast throughout the week. There's a chance we could be looking at sustained, high winds in the Seattle area on Sunday night. It's too early to say for sure, but in that scenario, it would obviously push us toward the U46.5.

The pick: Packers 27 – Seahawks 23

Monday Night Football Double Feature

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -6.5

Total: 43.5

The first of two Monday night games takes us to Minnesota, where the Vikings will look to move to 12-2 after an emphatic win over the Falcons in Week 14. While Minnesota did pull away late to win by three touchdowns, Atlanta once again shot itself in the foot multiple times with two interceptions, multiple blown coverages and a fumbled punt return that officially sunk any chance of a comeback.

Credit to Minnesota for putting up 7.7 yards per play last week, but the Falcons did pile up 496 yards of offense. They converted only 2-of-5 red zone trip, however. 

With the Vikings rolling, this is a tough spot for the Bears, who I liked to hang in with the Niners last week – one of many Very Bad Calls. The Bears did not get a post-Eberflus bump and once again came out flat. In the first half, Chicago was outgained 310 to 4 in total yards. That is a real statistic.

While the Bears haven't won a game on American soil in over two months, I still see this as a more dangerous team than they showed last week. Back in Week 12, the Bears took Minnesota to overtime, they should've beaten the Packers before that, and in Week 13 they very nearly toppled the Lions in Detroit.

Ultimately, though, this should be another good spot for the Minnesota defense to scheme against an anemic quarterback in Caleb Williams, who was sacked seven times last week by the Niners. On balance, I like what I've seen from Williams over the last month-plus, but he's still a rookie and still very much prone to questionable decision-making.

Again, I'd be surprised if we don't see a more lively effort from Chicago this week, but the Vikings are the side to back at home. Chicago is just 1-4-1 ATS as a road dog this season, while Minnesota – still alive for the 1-seed, by the way – is 4-2 ATS at home.

The pick: Vikings 25 – Bears 17

Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Falcons -3.5

Total: 44.0

In the interest of honesty, I have no idea why this game is getting the Monday night placement. At no point in the last calendar year would this have lined up as a premier matchup, but here we are.

Entering Week 15, it feels like the Falcons have reached their lowest point. They've dropped four in a row, they've let the division slip away and Kirk Cousins has not thrown a touchdown since November 3rd. He has tossed eight picks in that span, however, and it's starting to feel like we're one more bad game away from the Michael Penix calls reaching peak decibel levels.

To Cousins' credit, he was much better last week than the final score would indicate, though he very easily could've thrown at least two more picks than the pair he was credited with. The Raiders' defense should be a much easier challenge, but Vegas has a way of hanging around with superior teams, just as it did well into the second half last week against the Bucs.

The key factor here is Vegas is without Gardner Minshew and could very well be without Aidan O'Connell. There's been some initial optimism on his leg injury, but he's dealing with a bone bruise and should be considered 50/50, at best, to start on Monday night. If AOC is ruled out, we know what that means: It's Desmond Ridder time. 

As much as I would love to see a Ridder revenge game, he's enough of a downgrade that I would have to lean Atlanta.

The pick: Falcons 26 – Raiders 19