NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves for NFL Week 1
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 1 Odds (Opening, Current)
Week 1 NFL Lines opened May 14th, 2025
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -7.0 O/U 47.0) / (Eagles -8.5 O/U 47.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (Chiefs -2.5 O/U 45.5) / (Chiefs -3.0 O/U 45.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (Patriots -3.0 O/U 43.5) / (Patriots -2.5 O/U 43.0)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Steelers -3.0 O/U 39.5) / (Steelers -2.5 O/U 38.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Bucs -2.0 O/U 47.5) / (Bucs -2.5 O/U 46.0)
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (Colts -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Colts -1.0 O/U 47.0)
- Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (Cardinals -3.5 O/U 43.5) / (Cardinals -6.5 O/U 42.5)
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders (Commanders -7.0 O/U 45.5) / (Commanders -6.0 O/U 45.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Jaguars -2.5 O/U 45.5) / (Jaguars -3.0 O/U 46.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Bengals -6.0 O/U 44.5) / (Bengals -5.5 O/U 47.5)
- Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (Broncos -7.5 O/U 43.5) / (Broncos -8.0 O/U 41.5)
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (49ers -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (49ers -2.5 O/U 44.0)
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Packers -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Packers -2.5 O/U 47.0)
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -3.0 O/U 44.5) / (Rams -2.5 O/U 44.0)
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Bills -2.0 O/U 53.5) / (PICK O/U 50.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Bears -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Vikings -1.5 O/U 43.5)
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NFL Week 1 Key Injury News
RB - Joe Mixon. Najee Harris, Jaydon Blue, Tyjae Spears
WR - Rashee Rice (Susp), Jordan Addison (Susp), Jalen Coker, Jalen McMillan, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Christian Watson
TE - Cade Otton
NFL Week 1 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Browns/Ravens -18.0; the lowest spread is Titans/Texans and Dolphins/Jets -1.0
- The highest total game is Bills/Ravens 51.5-52.5; the lowest total is Steelers/Jets 37.5-38.5
- There are 7 road favorites in Week 1, but only 2 greater than -3.0
- There is a heavy concentration of games with lines between 0-3 points which will make it a tough week to handicap
- The highest team totals are Eagles, Bengals, Bills, Commanders, Broncos
- The lowest team totals are Titans, Jets, Saints, Cowboys, Steelers
NFL Week 1 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Quarterback changes have the biggest impact on line movement, and that is the case with the Saints when they named Spencer Rattler the starter. The Cardinals opened -3.5 and the line is now sitting at -6.5 which is the biggest line move in Week 1. The thought was that rookie second-round pick Tyler Shough was going to be the starter, but Rattler was named the starter and there is not much faith in him.
The total was already low at 43.5 and is now sitting at 42.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
There is not many games with line moves on their sides, but this game has a 3 point move on the total. The game opened at 41.5, but has been bet down to 38.5. 38 is a key number in the NFL with so many scores able to land on it (24-14, 21-17, 31-7). The quarterback play (Aaron Rodgers against Justin Fields) and both teams' defenses have put this game at the lowest total on the board. Even with 38.5 being a low number, I still think this game is a prime candidate to be the lowest scoring game of the week and could end up 17-13.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Another total with a 3-point line move, but instead of down, this one is going up. It opened 44.5 and moved to 47.5. 47 and 48 are key numbers in the NFL, so it is hard to think this one will move anymore off this range.
The Bengals' offense is one of the best in football, and their defense is near the bottom. The Browns' situation at quarterback has now landed on Joe Flacco, but it will probably be a carousel all season. The Browns have not scored many points in this series so the Bengals would really have to put up 30-34 points in order for this game to come close to the 47-48 point total.
Other Games with Line Movement
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - There were some books that opened with the Lions as favored. As the summer went on, there were a lot of Packers Super Bowl futures picks, along with the recent trade of Micah Parsons to Green Bay.
Commanders -340 to -270
Eagles -300 to -395
