Week 18 is here, which means if you're still reading you're still Surviving. Take a bow. Picking a winner every week is so much harder than it sounds.
Last week killed a few more Survivor dreams as the Steelers, Rams and Lions lost. In my pool, two lost on the Steelers. Of the original 451 entrants, seven remain (1.5 percent). Impressive.
Thanks for reading this season and interacting in the comments section. Hopefully, we have a few winners. We missed two picks this year — the heavily favored Rams vs. the injury depleted 49ers in Week 5 and the Browns vs. the NFL-worst Titans (on a botched two-point attempt) in Week 14. Both were reasonable picks, all things considered, so no regrets.
On to Week 18.
Before picking a Survivor team, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up. And this time of year, it's important to consult the NFL weather report too.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAGUARS | Titans | 38.5% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 5.21 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 13.0% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.85 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 12.1% | 315 | 75.9% | 2.91 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 8.0% | 169.5 | 62.9% | 2.96 |
| BILLS | Jets | 7.8% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 1.77 |
| FALCONS | Saints | 6.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 2.42 |
| VIKINGS | Packers | 5.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.55 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 4.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.30 |
| RAMS | Cardinals | 4.1% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 1.04 |
| BEARS | Lions | 3.1% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 1.24 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 2.1% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 0.34 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 1.3% | 562.5 | 84.9% | 0.20 |
| Panthers | BUCCANEERS | 0.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.34 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.6% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.21 |
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 0.6% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 0.08 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 0.5% | 106 | 51.5% | 0.23 |
Home teams CAPITALIZED.
There are plenty of teams with something to play for this week other than mere pride. Hopefully, a couple of those are available to you. The team to take is the one you think your opponent(s) won't take. Of course, A) you might not have much of a choice and B) it's impossible to know for sure who your opponents are taking.
The Jaguars are the big favorite. If your competitors are sure to pick them, then fade J-Ville if you have a good alternative. If not, then that's the pick. For us, It's the Jags, as the only other option from the list below is the Bengals.
Hit up the comments if you can't decide who to pick.
Picks are in order of preference.
Week 18 Survivor Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Titans)
The Jaguars have ripped off seven in a row, including wins against the Broncos and Chargers, and need a victory to clinch the AFC South. Jacksonville also still has a shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed. In sum, the Jags will be going all-out at home against the worst team in the league.
Houston Texans (vs. Colts)
The Texans need a win and a Jaguars loss to take the NFC South Crown. The Colts are ready to end a horrifically disappointing season that blew up in their faces. The Philip Rivers fun is over too — Riley Leonard will start this week for the Colts. The Texans' defense should have fun with that.
New England Patriots (vs. Dolphins)
The AFC East champion Patriots need a win to hang onto the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. A win and a Denver loss would get them the No. 1 seed. So, New England has plenty on the line. The Dolphins do not. On top of it, Miami in cold weather doesn't bode well.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Commanders)
The Eagles are playing for the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round matchup against the Packers instead of one of the NFC West teams should they finish with the three seed. The Commanders are expected to start Josh Johnson again. That's really all anyone needs to know. But one more: Washington gave up 207 rushing yards to Philadelphia two weeks before Dallas ran for 211 last week; a third consecutive 200-plus rushing day is probably coming.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Browns)
Neither team has anything to play for other than state pride. That should be motivation enough for the Bengals, who have put up 92 points in back-to-back blowout wins. The Browns won't be a pushover, but the only thing they're playing for is the sack record for Myles Garrett.
Denver Broncos (vs. Chargers)
The Broncos will clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed with a win. With nothing to play for, the Chargers will rest Justin Herbert and start Trey Lance. Lance started Week 18 last season for the Cowboys and completed just 58.8 percent of his attempts. It'll likely go similar this time around against a stout Denver defense that is seeking home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Cardinals)
Losers of two in a row, coach Sean McVay said the Rams intend to play their starters Sunday as they need a win to get some momentum entering the playoffs. However, if the 49ers win Saturday against Seattle, the Rams will be locked into the six seed. In that case, it's unlikely Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and who knows who else will play more than maybe a half. If the Seahawks win, the Rams can claim the five seed with a win, which would bring them a playoff matchup against the NFC South winner instead of Chicago or Philadelphia. That's plenty of motivation. So, picking the Rams this week is contingent on Saturday's Seahawks-49ers game. If the Seahawks win, the Rams are a solid pick. If the 49ers win, pass.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Jets)
The Bills don't have a ton to play for, but getting the taste of last week's bitter loss out of their mouth is at least some motivation. A win and a Chargers loss (which is likely, see above) would move Buffalo out of the seven seed in the AFC. That likely would mean a first-round game against someone other than the Patriots. However, it won't be surprising if the Bills rest Josh Allen, who has a gimpy ankle. In fact, it will be surprising if the Bills don't rest him. Backup QB Mitchell Trubisky might not be great, but he can still beat the hapless Jets and rookie Brady Cook.
