NFL Picks: Week 5 Edition

NFL Picks: Week 5 Edition

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Erickson won the week at 9-5-1, while Stopa seems to think four wins is ugly "on a 15-game slate". I'd venture to say the aesthetic quality of four wins transcends slate size.

Mercifully, there's only one consensus pick this week, but you'll be dismayed to learn it is again the Jaguars. Fade it if you like, but then you're laying double-digit points with the Rams at your own risk. I'm on an island the most often with the Saints, Eagles and Broncos.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Bills +4 at BrownsBrownsBillsBrownsBillsBills
Chiefs -3 at TitansChiefsTitansTitansTitansChiefs
Ravens +3 at DolphinsRavensRavensRavensDolphinsRavens
Jaguars +11.5 at RamsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguars
Patriots +1.5 at BengalsBengalsBengalsPatriotsBengalsPatriots
Seahawks -3 at ColtsColtsColtsColtsSeahawksColts
Lions +7 at PackersLionsPackersLionsPackersPackers
Saints pick'em at BearsBearsBearsSaintsBearsBears
Eagles +2.5 at GiantsGiantsGiantsEaglesGiantsGiants
Panthers -2 at CardinalsCardinalsPanthersPanthersPanthersPanthers
Broncos -7 at Cowboys CowboysCowboysBroncosCowboysCowboys
Texans +6.5 at 49ers49ersTexansTexansTexansTexans
Chargers -4.5 at Raiders RaidersRaidersChargersChargersRaiders
Jets +9 at FalconsFalconsJetsFalconsJetsJets
Best Bet CardinalsGiantsBroncosTexansGiants
Last Week's Record9-5-18-6-17-7-14-10-17-7-1
2013 Record31-28-425-34-425-34-428-31-433-26-4
Best Bet Record2-22-21-32-20-4
2013 Consensus Pick Record4-9-2
2012
Erickson won the week at 9-5-1, while Stopa seems to think four wins is ugly "on a 15-game slate". I'd venture to say the aesthetic quality of four wins transcends slate size.

Mercifully, there's only one consensus pick this week, but you'll be dismayed to learn it is again the Jaguars. Fade it if you like, but then you're laying double-digit points with the Rams at your own risk. I'm on an island the most often with the Saints, Eagles and Broncos.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Bills +4 at BrownsBrownsBillsBrownsBillsBills
Chiefs -3 at TitansChiefsTitansTitansTitansChiefs
Ravens +3 at DolphinsRavensRavensRavensDolphinsRavens
Jaguars +11.5 at RamsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguars
Patriots +1.5 at BengalsBengalsBengalsPatriotsBengalsPatriots
Seahawks -3 at ColtsColtsColtsColtsSeahawksColts
Lions +7 at PackersLionsPackersLionsPackersPackers
Saints pick'em at BearsBearsBearsSaintsBearsBears
Eagles +2.5 at GiantsGiantsGiantsEaglesGiantsGiants
Panthers -2 at CardinalsCardinalsPanthersPanthersPanthersPanthers
Broncos -7 at Cowboys CowboysCowboysBroncosCowboysCowboys
Texans +6.5 at 49ers49ersTexansTexansTexansTexans
Chargers -4.5 at Raiders RaidersRaidersChargersChargersRaiders
Jets +9 at FalconsFalconsJetsFalconsJetsJets
Best Bet CardinalsGiantsBroncosTexansGiants
Last Week's Record9-5-18-6-17-7-14-10-17-7-1
2013 Record31-28-425-34-425-34-428-31-433-26-4
Best Bet Record2-22-21-32-20-4
2013 Consensus Pick Record4-9-2
2012 Record110-140-6124-126-6121-129-6143-107-6123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7123-126-7127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5136-115-5134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3130-123-3126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10125-121-10130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

Consensus Picks

Last week we went 0-2 on consensus picks to drop our record on the year to 4-9-2. This week we have one consensus pick - the Jaguars.

Comments:

WriterComment
EricksonCrap, there I go picking the Jaguars again. But it's against another crappy team, so either way I'm stuck taking a bad team. To paraphrase The Wire - the Jags are bad, but I don't think that they're "special bad." Their defense is actually reasonably strong, and they get Justin Blackmon back this week, which should at least draw some coverage away from Cecil Shorts. ... As far as the Cardinals-Panthers, I think the Cards have a pretty good defense, and they've had just one home game, where they beat a pretty good Lions team. I'm not sure why they're getting points, but I'll take them... I don't like the KC/TEN game, because at some point the Chiefs are going to get their comeuppance, but I also think Fitzpatrick will commit the first Titans turnover of the year - that's what he was put on this earth to do.
PianowskiLove seeing the Giants giving less than the standard three; Philly has just as many problems. And while I don't have much hope for Big Blue, schedule and timing have played significantly into the poor start.
LissI went against the grain on a few of these picks (ATL, DEN, NO) and am on an island three times as a result. This is also known as going with the grain as far as most bettors are concerned, but not in this contrarian group. Put differently, I'm such a contrarian, I'm a contrarian to the contrarians, making me Mr. Conventional Wisdom.
StopaI wasn't as close to a doughnut in Week 4 as I first thought, but four wins on a 15 game slate is ugly, so it's back to the drawing board. I've gotten away from some of the things that have worked in the past - fading the public, prediction models like Massey Peabody, so I'm incorporating more of that going forward. But really, you don't want to hear anything else from me until I get back on track.
Del Don Not the easiest week, to say the least... I rarely like to switch picks, but I did so with the Packers here... As someone who's winless with my best bets, it seems fitting to back the Giants this week.

The players:

Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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