NFL Picks: The Staff Handicaps the Games

NFL Picks: The Staff Handicaps the Games

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

This is the 15th year we've done the staff picks, and Erickson returns as the champ, going 132-114 last season. If we were scoring in absolute value, though Stopa would have won, because he was the furthest from .500, but unfortunately he won the contest in 2012, so people didn't start fading him until they were shirtless and homeless, undoing much of the good work he does at his day job.

In any event, we're back for another round. I've made a couple changes that will be apparent next week - I'll start keeping track not only of picks on which we all agree, but also on the record of the majority, whether it's 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. It'll be a much bigger sample (every game), and it'll better reflect whether there's a wisdom of crowds or the opposite (stupidity of the herd?) effect.

Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins are unanimous picks*.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Packers +5.5 at SeahawksPackersSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksPackers
Saints -3 at FalconsFalconsFalconsFalconsFalconsFalcons
Vikings +4 at RamsRamsVikingsVikingsRamsVikings
Browns +6.5 at SteelersBrownsSteelersBrownsBrownsBrowns
Jaguars +10.5 at EaglesJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguars
Raiders +5 at JetsJetsRaidersJetsJetsJets
Bengals +2 at RavensBengalsRavensBengalsBengalsRavens
Bills +6.5 at BearsBillsBearsBillsBillsBears
Redskins +2.5 at TexansTexansTexansTexansRedskinsTexans
Titans +4 at ChiefsTitansTitansChiefsChiefsTitans
Patriots -4.5
This is the 15th year we've done the staff picks, and Erickson returns as the champ, going 132-114 last season. If we were scoring in absolute value, though Stopa would have won, because he was the furthest from .500, but unfortunately he won the contest in 2012, so people didn't start fading him until they were shirtless and homeless, undoing much of the good work he does at his day job.

In any event, we're back for another round. I've made a couple changes that will be apparent next week - I'll start keeping track not only of picks on which we all agree, but also on the record of the majority, whether it's 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. It'll be a much bigger sample (every game), and it'll better reflect whether there's a wisdom of crowds or the opposite (stupidity of the herd?) effect.

Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins are unanimous picks*.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Packers +5.5 at SeahawksPackersSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksPackers
Saints -3 at FalconsFalconsFalconsFalconsFalconsFalcons
Vikings +4 at RamsRamsVikingsVikingsRamsVikings
Browns +6.5 at SteelersBrownsSteelersBrownsBrownsBrowns
Jaguars +10.5 at EaglesJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguars
Raiders +5 at JetsJetsRaidersJetsJetsJets
Bengals +2 at RavensBengalsRavensBengalsBengalsRavens
Bills +6.5 at BearsBillsBearsBillsBillsBears
Redskins +2.5 at TexansTexansTexansTexansRedskinsTexans
Titans +4 at ChiefsTitansTitansChiefsChiefsTitans
Patriots -4.5 at DolphinsDolphinsDolphinsDolphinsDolphinsDolphins
Panthers +1 at BuccaneersPanthersBuccaneersPanthersPanthersBuccaneers
49ers -5 at Cowboys49ersCowboysCowboysCowboysCowboys
Colts +7.5 at BroncosBroncosColtsBroncosColtsColts
Giants +5 at LionsGiantsLionsGiantsGiantsGiants
Chargers +3 at CardinalsCardinalsChargersCardinalsChargersChargers
Best BetCardinalsLionsFalconsSeahawksRavens
SB PredictionGB over BALSEA over NEIND over NO SEA over DENNE over GB
2013 Record132-114-10118-128-10123-123-10111-135-10128-118-10
2013 Best Bet Record9-7-15-129-89-86-11
2013 Unanimous Pick Record23-29-3
2012 Record110-140-6125-125-6121-129-6143-107-6123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7123-126-7127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5136-115-5134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3130-123-3126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10125-121-10130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

Unanimous Picks*

As DDD pointed out five years ago, the "consensus picks" were really unanimous ones, so I've changed their section header to reflect that. Better late than never. This week, we all agree on the Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins.

Comments:

WriterComment
Erickson I'm buying into Arizona's improved offensive line, Bruce Arians' offense and their home field. I am a little bit worried about their injuries on defense, but they've still played well when the first unit was out there after those injuries. As always, a lot of underdogs in Week 1, though a notable exception for me is taking Carolina as a road favorite. I think that there's been a little bit of a "sky is falling" around Cam Newton and the offense... Always prefer the Giants as a dog than as a favorite, like that the line has moved to give me a little more buffer.
PianowskiWhat's the over/under on EJ Manuel's benching? Week 6? Week 3? Two quarters into Sunday... I was going to make the Bears my best, switched to the Lions at the last moment. Maybe Eli Manning is long-conning us with the horrible preseason, but why would you want to make him a West Coast accuracy guy? How will that work? I know there are all sorts of examples of struggling August players who were fine when the games counted - see Phil Rivers last year, another system switch as well. That said, Manning doesn't have McCoy, Whisenhunt and the San Diego toys on his side. I'm calling for two interceptions at minimum, as Detroit cruises... A lot of hold-the-nose reflexive dogs this week. I can't spot a big number with the Jets, general principle. I have to take the Jags over 10, general principle. But remember in the NFL, no one really knows anything. The key is to adjust quickly... At the end of it all, Seahawks over Patriots. Sure, it's hard to repeat, but it's hard to win one, period. So many pieces of NFC West summer news fell Seattle's way.
LissI wanted to make the Giants my best bet, but didn't want to jinx them, so went with Atlanta instead. The Falcons almost beat the Saints last year at home, and now Julio Jones and Roddy White are healthy. The Saints aren't the same team outside of New Orleans. The Giants defense was strong last year, and while they'll miss Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul is healthy, and they're loaded in the secondary. As long as Manning doesn't give it away, I think they cover and win outright over an overhyped Detroit squad. I love the Bills getting nearly seven (it's seven now on most books, but we locked it in unfortunately at 6.5) against a bad Bears defense. The Colts without Robert Mathis won't even slow down the Broncos offense. For the Colts to cover, Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his life against what could be a good defense this year. I picked Indy over New Orleans in the SB because all the teams I really think will win it would be boring. But maybe Luck does become the star he's supposed to be in Year 3. Had to restrain myself from picking NYG over NE.
StopaI wish I could make my "best bet" the under on Jax/Philly. 53 points is crazy high for any Week 1 game, particularly when one of the teams is the Jaguars... I love Aaron Rodgers as much as the next guy, but the disparity between the Seattle D and the Packers D is huge, and that home-field edge in Seattle is as good as any in any sport... The Bills have to be the "hold your nose" pick of the week given how bad they looked in the preseason, which probably means nothing.
Del Don I had a hard time picking between the Ravens and Buccaneers being my best bet, as I view them as both playing teams they are better than or at least equal to at home with a point spread less than three (this was the case with the Texans early on, but the spread has since moved closer to the usual FG). I went with Baltimore, since TB has a new QB and coaching staff, while the Ravens are typically very tough at home even during a down year such as last season...As for the rest of this slate, it was pretty easy to just go with mostly dogs, as there's so much unknown right now. I say this every time of the year, but Week 1 is always the easiest for me to pick ATS.

The players:

Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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