This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 14
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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NFL Week 14 Odds
BYES: Cardinals, Commanders
Week 14 Schedule
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers -6.0 O/U 30.0 OPENED STEELERS -1.0/41.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons -2.5 O/U 39.5 OPENED FALCONS -2.5/43.5
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens -7.0 O/U 43.0 OPENED RAVENS -5.0/45.0
Detroit Lions -3.5 at Chicago Bears O/U 42.0 OPENED LIONS -1.5/46.5
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at Cincinnati Bengals O/U 40.5 OPENED BENGALS -9.0/40.0
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 at Cleveland Browns O/U 36.5 OPENED BROWNS -1.0/44.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints -5.0 O/U 38.5 OPENED SAINTS -2.5/42.5
Houston Texans -6.5 at New York Jets O/U 34.5 OPENED JETS -8.5/38.5
Minnesota Vikings -3.0 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 40.0 OPENED RAIDERS -1.5/48.5
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -10.5 O/U 47.0 OPENED 49ERS -3.5/46.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 O/U 47.5 OPENED CHIEFS -3.5/51.5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 O/U 43.0 OPENED CHARGERS -3.0/45.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys -3.5 O/U 53.0 OPENED COWBOYS -1.0/48.5
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins -13.5 O/U 47.0 OPENED DOLPHINS -7.5/44.0
Green Bay Packers -6.5 at New York Giants O/U 37.0 OPENED GIANTS -2.5/37.5
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Week 14 Key Injury News
Saints - QB Derek Carr, WR Michael Thomas, WR Rashid Shaheed
Steelers - QB Kenny Pickett, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
Patriots - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Ezekiel Elliott
Seahawks - RB Zach Charbonnet, RB Kenneth Walker
Eagles - RB D'Andre Swift, TE Dallas Goedert, QB Jalen Hurts
Titans - RB Derrick Henry, DE Jeffery Simmons
Colts - RB Jonathan Taylor
Commanders - RB Brian Robinson
Browns - WR Amari Cooper
Texans - WR Tank Dell, TE Dalton Schultz
Vikings - WR Justin Jefferson (scheduled to return)
Rams - WR Puka Nacua
Packers - WR Christian Watson
Falcons - DB A.J. Terrell
Dolphins - OL Terron Armstead
Lions - C Frank Ragnow
Broncos - CB Patrick Surtain
Week 14 observations
We are reaching the point where line moves of 6 or greater are the threshold for a writeup. Most games have had line moves of at least 3 points with a lot based on quarterback situations. Weather will start to become a factor in outdoor games in the Northern states, so keep an eye on it.
Highest point spread – Titans/Dolphins -14.0
Lowest point spread – Broncos/Chargers -2.5, Colts/Bengals -2.5
Highest total – Eagles/Cowboys 53.0
Lowest total – Patriots/Steelers 30.0
Four games with totals over 46.0 - Seahawks/49ers, Bills/Chiefs, Eagles/Cowboys, Titans/Dolphins
Six games with totals of 39 or less – Patriots/Steelers, Buccaneers/Falcons, Jaguars/Browns, Panthers/Saints, Texans/Jets, Packers/Giants
Three games with lines at least -7.5 or higher – Rams/Ravens, Seahawks/49ers, Titans/Dolphins
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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: New England Patriots 
at Pittsburgh Steelers 
The Steelers opened -1.0 and it moved to -2.0 until last week, when it jumped up to -6.5, then moved down to -6.0 and -5.5 off the Kenny Pickett injury news. The big news in this game is the movement on the total, which opened 41.0 and has dropped all the way to 30.0 which is unheard of for a NFL game. But the Patriots are coming off a 6-0 loss to the Chargers and are the lowest-scoring team in football. The projected total is Steelers 18, Patriots 12 and that could still be high as I think it will end up closer to a 10-6 type game.
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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Indianapolis Colts 
at Cincinnati Bengals 
Much like most of the Bengals games, they will have some of the biggest line movements from opening to now. This was originally Bengals -9.0 and has moved 11.5 points to the Colts -2.5. The Bengals outlasted the Jaguars 34-31 in overtime on Monday night and that could mean the line moves again.
The total has stayed about the same opening 40.0, and is now 40.5. I am surprised that it has not dropped into the 37-38 range.
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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Houston Texans 
at New York Jets 
Another team that will almost always be in these writeups is the Jets due to the Aaron Rodgers injury and terrible offense. The Jets opened a whopping -8.5 favorite and are now Texans -6.5. I do not think it will cross over to -7 on the Texans, but the total has gone from 38.5 to 34.5 and I can see it moving down even further.
NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks 
at San Francisco 49ers 
We saw the Seahawks go into Dallas as inflated road 'dogs and get the cover last Thursday. They are now inflated road 'dogs again versus the 49ers. The 49ers are coming off a complete wipeout of the Eagles, while the Seahawks do get a few extra days of rest.
The 49ers opened -3.5 in the summer, which even at the time seemed pretty low and it jumped up to -10.5 this week. This still feels like a pretty high number considering it is a divisional game.
The total opened 46.5 and dipped to 44.0 before climbing back up to 46 and then 47.
NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins 
at Tennessee Titans 
The game with the highest spread of the week with the Dolphins now pushing -13.5 after opening -7.5, climbing to -11.5 and upward. The Dolphins are coming off a blowout of the Commanders and the Titans have nothing to play for especially with Derrick Henry injured.
The total has jumped from 44.0 to 47.0, and it could end up hitting the key number of 48.0. The Dolphins' team total is sitting around 30.0 and I can see that being a very popular OVER play.
NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers 
at New York Giants 
This is an interesting game because we have a significant line move from opening with the Giants -2.5 and now Packers -6.5. The Giants were getting killed after the Daniel Jones injury, but they have been playing much more competitive in the last few weeks. The Packers were also struggling until the last few weeks and are coming off a huge Sunday night win at home against the Chiefs.
This line of Packers -6.5 on the road feels very inflated and I can see some buyback from the sharps pushing this one down a couple of points.
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