This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Okay, I'll admit it - I'm in last place, but it's not me, it's them. I'm a game over .500, and everyone else is just picking better. That and we're 19-11 on consensus picks so far this year. Maybe it's an easy dog-heavy year, but it's been a pretty strong eight weeks for the staff. Consensus picks are the Lions, Browns and Chiefs.
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Jets -4 at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Buccaneers +8.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers | Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers |
| Dolphins +5 at Ravens | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Ravens |
| Patriots -4.5 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Cardinals +8.5 at Vikings | Cardinals | Cardinals | Vikings | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Bears -3 at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bears | Bills | Bills |
| Chargers -2.5 at Texans | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Texans | Texans |
| Saints -6.5 at Panthers | Panthers | Saints | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Giants -7 at Seahawks | Giants | Seahawks | Seahawks | Giants | Seahawks |
| Colts +3 at Eagles | Eagles | Colts | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Chiefs +2.5 at Raiders | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Cowboys +8.5 at Packers | Cowboys | Packers | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Steelers -5 at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Steelers |
| Best Bet | Bills | Buccaneers | Browns | Falcons | Eagles |
| Last Week's Record | 8-5 | 7-6 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| 2010 Record | 61-52-4 | 60-53-4 | 57-56-4 | 66-47-4 | 58-55-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 2-6 | 2-5-1 | 4-4 | 5-2-1 | 4-3-1 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 19-11-1 | ||||
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A |
Okay, I'll admit it - I'm in last place, but it's not me, it's them. I'm a game over .500, and everyone else is just picking better. That and we're 19-11 on consensus picks so far this year. Maybe it's an easy dog-heavy year, but it's been a pretty strong eight weeks for the staff. Consensus picks are the Lions, Browns and Chiefs.
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Jets -4 at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Buccaneers +8.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers | Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers |
| Dolphins +5 at Ravens | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Ravens |
| Patriots -4.5 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Cardinals +8.5 at Vikings | Cardinals | Cardinals | Vikings | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Bears -3 at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bears | Bills | Bills |
| Chargers -2.5 at Texans | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Texans | Texans |
| Saints -6.5 at Panthers | Panthers | Saints | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Giants -7 at Seahawks | Giants | Seahawks | Seahawks | Giants | Seahawks |
| Colts +3 at Eagles | Eagles | Colts | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Chiefs +2.5 at Raiders | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Cowboys +8.5 at Packers | Cowboys | Packers | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Steelers -5 at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Steelers |
| Best Bet | Bills | Buccaneers | Browns | Falcons | Eagles |
| Last Week's Record | 8-5 | 7-6 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| 2010 Record | 61-52-4 | 60-53-4 | 57-56-4 | 66-47-4 | 58-55-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 2-6 | 2-5-1 | 4-4 | 5-2-1 | 4-3-1 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 19-11-1 | ||||
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have three consensus picks: the Lions, Browns and Chiefs.
Last week we went 2-0 on consensus picks, putting us at 19-11-1 on the year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | As opposed to last year, there are a lot of home dogs to go with this week. |
| Pianowski | Josh Freeman has a 95.4 rating in the fourth quarter, which means the back-door cover is always open, even if Tampa isn't competitive here... Good to see all these home dogs back on the card. I missed you last week. Woof... What do the Bills give up, if anything, playing in the YYZ? I know we have a lot of Buffalo fans in the house - I'm curious how you see it. |
| Liss | I like the Browns, Falcons and Vikings. |
| Stopa | The Lions, Browns, Panthers and Bengals are picks I just have to make. They're home dogs, playing superior opponents, and the public hates them. It feels wrong, but there's a reason Vegas has all those lights. Don't be a sucker; side with Vegas... I have similar thoughts on the Cowboys, who define "buy low" right now. Plus, Green Bay has too many injuries to be laying that many points... The line moving is why I took the Eagles; that, and it feels contrarian to give points to Peyton Manning, and I like that... I'm forcing the Vikings to prove something on the field before I lay 9 with them against anyone... My best bet this week, and probably my best bet of the season to date, is the Falcons. When the public looks at the Bucs, they see a 5-2 team and think 8.5 points is too many - hence two-thirds of the public is on the Bucs. What I see, though, is a team that's been outscored by 27 points on the season and failed miserably in its only tests so far - blowout home losses to the Saints and Steelers. The Bucs are winning close games against inferior teams (which suggests to me that Rahim Morris is doing a bang-up coaching job), but their overall lack of talent is magnified immensely when they play a playoff-caliber team. Falcons 30-13... I struggled with the Texans, Dolphins, Chiefs and Bills, but I took the points because I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them win outright, and the points will matter in at least one of them. |
| Del Don | I originally backed the Giants, but that spread moved from opening at 4.5 to currently 7, so there may be some value with Seattle now, even though New York is clearly the better team... I really struggled with the Ravens/Dolphins game... As for my best bet, it feels crazy to see Indy as underdogs, but traveling during a short week is never easy, and Andy Reid is 11-0 coming off byes during his career. |
The players:
•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.
