This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 3 NFL Picks and Player Props
Last week was another good run as I hit two out of three anytime touchdowns (Jordan Mason -160, Marvin Harrison +185) while also cashing on two out of three player props (Chris Olave over 59.5 Receiving Yards, Jacoby Brissett Under 183.5 Passing Yards). All three player props would have hit had Rico Dowdle rushed for just four more yards. Let's hope we can keep this up!
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Player Anytime TDs
Tony Pollard, TEN +110 DraftKings
Tyjae Spears will miss this week's tilt with the Packers, which should open up all the touches that Pollard can handle. Pollard has produced very effectively for the Titans thus far with just under 200 yards from scrimmage, while averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. The Packers are on the road and their run defense has not looked good thus far. This line prices at -140 on other sites so you might want to grab this on DraftKings before it moves. A long shot here is Julius Chestnut; the third string running back, who should move up to No.2 this week, is +400 on DraftKings.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET +110 FanDuel
Coming off a season with 10 touchdowns, Brown looks due for at least one score this week after failing to reach the end zone over the first two weeks. This game has the highest over/under of the week at 51.5, with the Lions a three-point favorite in Arizona. Brown has gotten two red zone targets in each of the first two games (24 targets overall), so Jared Goff has not ignored him. In a small two-week sample, the Cardinals are 24th in the league in allowing fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Justin Fields, PIT +235 DraftKings
The injury to Russell Wilson has opened the door for Fields to run away with the starting job and he's done nothing to relinquish it. I like the Steelers finally returning home against a Chargers team that plays a second consecutive East Coast road game. It's a matter of time before we see a big Fields' rushing game. I like Sunday to be that game. He has attempted 22 runs over his first two starts and while he hasn't scored, he had five runs inside of the 20 in Week 1. These odds look solid for someone who rushed for 12 touchdowns in 28 games over his two seasons as a member of the Chicago Bears.
Player Props
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Michael Pittman, IND Over 51.5 -115 BetMGM
There's a couple of reasons to suggest Pittman will not hit the over on this prop against the Bears. He enters the game a bit banged up and he hasn't gone over 45 receiving yards in a game thus far. The good news is that he saw seven and eight targets in the first two games, and remains the top receiver for the Colts. Pittman hit this over mark in 12 of his 16 games last season, though QB Anthony Richardson played in only four of those contests. The Bears have opened merely league-average against opposing wide receivers this season and the Colts are at home. This is my favorite prop of the week and I can see parlaying a high yardage total at plus odds with an anytime touchdown.
Colby Parkinson Over 29.5 Receiving Yards -120 BetMGM
While everyone debates which wide receiver will benefit from the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, it seems pretty obvious that Parkinson should see an uptick in production without the two star wide receivers. Parkinson hauled in only one catch for 12 yards in last week's embarrassing loss to the Cardinals but easily hit this over with 47 receiving yards in Week 1. While the 49ers present a tough matchup for tight ends, so did Parkinson's first two opponents this season. Over the last two seasons, he had 50 total receptions in Seattle. 10 of those catches (20 percent) went for 20+ yards, showing his ability to bring in long receptions. He should easily get five targets in this game making this a pretty attainable number. I'd sprinkle a little on his anytime touchdown odds, which are +390 on FanDuel (as low as +290 on other sites).
Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -110 DraftKings, BetMGM
Pitts has had two slow games as far as receiving yardage, recording only 26 and 20 yards. A home matchup with the Chiefs may be exactly what the talented tight end needs. This looks like one of the higher scoring games of the week, and the Chiefs in an extremely limited sample have been the worst team fantasy-wise against the opponent's tight end. I also like some of the alternative receiving odds for him such at 70+ receiving yards, listed at +400 on DraftKings.
