This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Super Bowl LVIII Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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Super Bowl LVIII Odds
Sunday, Feb 11, 6:30 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) -2.0 at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) O/U 47.0
OPENED 49ers -2.5; O/U 47.5
The game opened 49ers -2.5 and immediately went to -2, -1.5, and finally to -1. It has bounced back and forth between 49ers -1 and -2. The total has moved from 47.5 to 48.0, 47.0 and 47.5> Ut appears that 48 is a key number so you can see why people would either want to get on one side or the other on it.
The early money in Super Bowl betting is typically going to come from the "Sharp" side while the "public" is going to bet closer to kickoff. So we will continue to see small moves leading up unto kickoff and then could see some significant late movement.
2/7/24 - 49ers have settled in at -1.5 or -2 in most places with a -2.5 still at FanDuel. The total has not moved from 47.5.
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Super Bowl LVIII Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers 
at Kansas City Chiefs 
Preview
The 49ers ended the season with a 12–5 record and the top seed in the NFC. With the top seed, they clinched the No. 1 seed and earned a first-round bye. The 49ers closed as 10.5-point home favorites against the Packers with a total of 50.5 failing to cover 24–21 with the game going under by 3.5 points. The 49ers advanced to their third straight NFC Championship Game and their fourth in five years. In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers closed as -7.5 home favorites and failed to cover again, but won the game 34-31 with a total of 53.5 (going OVER by 11.5 points).
Kansas City finished the 2023 season with an 11–6 record, its 11th consecutive winning season and eighth consecutive AFC West title under head coach Andy Reid, and as the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
The Chiefs began the playoffs as -4.5 home favorites defeating the Miami Dolphins 26–7 (total 43.5) in the AFC Wild Card Round. They were +2.5 road underdogs against the Bills in the AFC Divisional Round, which was the first-ever road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs defeated the Bills 27–24 to advance to their sixth straight AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs proceeded to defeat the Ravens, 17–10, and were +4.5 road underdogs going under the total of 44.0.
When looking at the betting side, you have the 49ers who have failed to cover both of their playoff games, while the Chiefs have covered all three including two as road dogs.
Odds
Chiefs: Spread (+2.0) -102, Moneyline +100; Projected Score 22.5 points
49ers: Spread (-2.0) -118, Moneyline -120; Projected Score 24.5 points
Game Total: 47.0 points (-112 OVER, -108 UNDER)
Totaling bets thus far, 76 percent of the money and 82 percent of the bets are on the Chiefs. There is 58 percent of the money on the Chiefs' moneyline, and 64 percent of the bets are on the Chiefs. There is 51 percent of the money on the UNDER, but 73 percent of the bets on the OVER.
2/7/24 - UPDATE 70 percent of the money is on Chiefs moneyline. 41 percent of the money is on the UNDER.
Trends
Kansas City is 12-2 straight up in its last 14 on the road
Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 (depending on what closing number is used) as an underdog
The Chiefs are 8-3 to the UNDER in their last 11
The Chiefs have won six in a row straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the postseason
KC is 5-0 ATS and SU in its last five while going 5-1 to the UNDER last 6
The 49ers are 5-2 SU, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU and 40-14-3 ATS
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU & 37-17-3 ATS
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-16 SU & 39-15-3 ATS
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Key Injuries
Chiefs - G Joe Thuney is listed as QUESTIONABLE
49ers - CB Ambry Thomas, LB Oren Burks, DL Arik Armstead are QUESTIONABLE
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