NFL Monkey Knife Fight Picks: Conference Championship Round

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Published on January 28, 2023

Then there were four. We're down to the conference championship games in the NFL, leaving us with fewer options that usual on Monkey Knife Fight. Three Game Types are offered, including "More Or Less," "Rapid Fire" and "Stat Shootout." For a full breakdown of the rules for each game, see the House Rules page. Let's dive into some of the contests within each Game Type, and highlight one option to consider.

More Or Less Contest

Let's get started with a 2/2 goal for 3.5X the prize. We need to pick sides on Ja'Marr Chase 88.5 receiving yards and Travis Kelce 79.5 receiving yards. For Chase, give me the over. He was fairly quiet against the Bills last week, catching five of eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. It marked the fifth consecutive game that he finished with fewer than 90 receiving yards. However, he could be busy in this game that has plenty of scoring upside. When these two teams combined for 51 points in Week 13, Chase caught seven of eight targets for 97 yards.

I'll also take Kelce to go over his total. The Chiefs leaned on him heavily against the Jaguars, giving him a whopping 17 targets. He made them count, finishing with 14 receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns. He has finished with at least 95 receiving yards in each of his last seven playoff games.

Rapid Fire Contest

An interesting option is a 2/3 goal for 1.7X the prize. The battles are Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes fantasy points (with Mahomes receiving a 2.5 fantasy points bonus), Joe Burrow vs. Chase fantasy points (with Chase receiving a 1.5 fantasy points bonus) and Christian McCaffrey vs. Kelce fantasy points (with McCaffrey receiving a 0.5 fantasy points bonus). As good as McCaffrey has been, give me Kelce to win their battle. His massive target share is huge for his upside, and he's just as much of a touchdown threat, if not more so, as McCaffrey is.

For our other selection, let's go with Mahomes over Hurts. Hurts has plenty of rushing potential, which is likely why Mahomes is getting the bonus in this battle. However, he has the more difficult matchup against the 49ers, who allowed just 16.3 points per game during the regular season. They also gave up the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Mahomes injured his ankle last week, but he will play.

Stat Shootout Contest

Finally, we have a contest in which three players need to combine for 2.5-plus touchdowns for 1.5X the prize. Kelce is the top option. Not only did he have two touchdowns last week, but he has a total of eight touchdowns in his last seven playoff games. When he faced the Bengals for the AFC title last season, he caught 10 of 11 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown.

Let's stay in that same game and go with Chase as our second selection. He has at least one touchdown catch in five of his last six games, which can be attributed to him receiving at least two red-zone targets in all six. He also had a touchdown when these teams faced off in the playoffs last season.

Closing things out is McCaffrey, who scored a touchdown last week in what turned out to be a defensive battle with the Cowboys. He has been as productive as they come, scoring at least one touchdown in eight consecutive games. During that span, he had five rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns. His versatility gives him a favorable opportunity to extend his streak as the 49ers push to make the Super Bowl.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Mike Barner plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mbarner, DraftKings: mbarner51.