NFL Game Previews: Bengals-Browns Matchup

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3.5), o/u 46.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

They're baa-a-a-ack. Joe Burrow finally got a chance to catch his breath in the pocket last week, and as a result the Bengals' passing game came roaring back to life. Unfortunately, this revival might be short-lived, as Ja'Marr Chase picked up a hip injury somewhere along the way to his second straight 130-yard, two-TD game. Cincy seems reasonable confident he might be back soon after their Week 10 bye and haven't put him on IR, but it still leaves a big hole in the offense. Oh well, guess Burrow will just have to target Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon, and Hayden Hurst, and ... you get the idea. This offense isn't hurting for options, and the defense has quietly been stout, sitting in the top 10 in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed. The offensive line has been the only real weak spot, and even last week Burrow got sacked three times. Figuring out how to fix that unit might spell the difference between another deep run in the postseason and a quick exit, or maybe even missing out entirely.

That Bengals o-line should get a good test this week too. The Browns have had a brutal start to their season, but Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are both healthy again for the first time since Week 2. (They've both been on the field since, but Garrett especially hasn't been 100 percent healthy since his car accident.) That doesn't help their passing game, though. Jacoby Brissett's been fine, I guess? His 6.8 YPA so far would be his best performance in that category since his brief cameo as a Patriots rookie in 2016, but that just highlights the problem. He's been as good as the team could have hoped, and he's still only keeping company with the likes of Davis Mills and Zach Wilson statistically. Nick Chubb's been a warrior and could win a rushing crown, but all that's gotten them is a 2-5 record thanks to a terrible defense that's had injury problems well beyond the pass rush and a quarterback that isn't built for comebacks. Cleveland does get a Week 9 bye but then faces Miami and Buffalo on the road coming out of it, so Deshaun Watson could easily be taking over a 2-8 team when he makes his Browns debut. Not exactly how the front office drew it up in the offseason.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Chase (out, hip), CB Eli Apple (doubtful, hamstring)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), TE David Njoku (out, ankle), RG Wyatt Teller (out, calf), LB Anthony Walker (IR, quadriceps), CB Denzel Ward (out, concussion), CB Greg Newsome (questionable, oblique), CB Greedy Williams (questionable, illness)

CIN DFS targets: Mixon $9,400 DK / $12,500 FD (CLE 27th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Mike Thomas $1,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CLE 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Brissett $9,200 DK / $14,000 FD (CIN fourth in YPA allowed, t-5th in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: CLE 13th in red-zone conversions at 57.7 percent; CIN third in red-zone defense at 38.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 CLE, average score 27-25 CLE, average margin of victory 12 points. CLE has won four straight meetings, and four straight home games in the series

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon bangs out 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Higgins (who tops 100 yards) twice and Thomas once. Chubb gallops for 120 yards and a score. Brissett throws for 200 yards and finds Harrison Bryant for a TD. Bengals 31-17

Denver (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville in London, o/u 39.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

I made it very clear to that monkey's paw last week that there were to be no more Broncos standalone games. Sigh. There was apparently in-flight entertainment on the way to London, as Russell Wilson got the zoomies or something, but honestly, I'll take Russ' try-hard weirdo routine over the bitter old man stink coming off Aaron Rodgers these days. Denver's season is probably over already after this current four-game losing streak — only the Lions are farther back from the lead in their division — and there could be a sell-off coming before the trade deadline, so while this is far from a fun team to watch on the field, there should be plenty of behind the scenes drama. Will Nathanial Hackett survive the season? Is Melvin Gordon one more fumble away from losing his starting job for good? How the heck does Patrick Surtain and the secondary stay focused amidst all this chaos, anyway?

I don't count this as a home game for the Jaguars, even though they've played across the pond so much it's basically their home away from home, but given how their last two home games went (13-6 loss to the Texans, 23-17 loss to the Giants where Christian Kirk was inches away from a winning score as the clock ticked down to zero) that's probably just as well. Not that their last two road games went much better. Jacksonville's lost four straight too, so something will have to give, but that something might end up being the interest in watching American football among English fans. Trevor Lawrence had his first 300-yard game of the year last week but barely completed 50 percent of his passes. In fact, in the three games in which he's attempted 40 or more passes this season, he's failed to reach a 60 percent completion rate. In the four with 39 attempts or less, he's got an aggregate 73.7 percent rate, as well as an 8:1 TD:INT and semi-respectable 7.3 YPA. Basically, he's been OK when he hasn't felt the pressure to win the game himself. That's maybe not a great quality if you're hoping he develops into a true franchise QB, but it's fantastic if you have fantasy shares in Travis Etienne. The second-year RB has the backfield pretty much to himself after James Robinson got flipped to the Jets, and Denver's front seven was on its way to getting steamrolled by Breece Hall last week before he suffered the knee injury that forced New York to trade for Robinson.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Javonte Williams (IR, knee), RB Mike Boone (IR, ankle), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), LT Garett Boles (IR, leg), RT Cameron Fleming (out, quadriceps), RT Tom Compton (PUP-R, back), EDGE Randy Gregory (IR, knee), CB Ronald Darby (IR, knee)
JAC injuries: LG Ben Bartch (IR, knee), CB Shaquill Griffin (IR, back)

DEN DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: KJ Hamler $3,000 DK / $8,500 FD (JAC sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $10,000 DK / $15,500 FD (DEN third in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Kirk $9,000 DK / $13,500 FD (DEN third in DVOA vs. WR1), Evan Engram $5,000 DK / $8,000 FD (DEN fifth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DEN 32nd in red-zone conversions at 23.5 percent; JAC 12th in red-zone defense at 52.2 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, 10-11 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Latavius Murray leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards and a score. Wilson starts and throws for 230 yards, but a strip sack by Travon Walker results in a fumble return TD for the other Josh Allen. Etienne busts out for 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards but limits his mistakes. Jaguars 17-13

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta, o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

That didn't really just happen, did it? The Panthers didn't actually beat Tom Brady without Christian McCaffrey, and with an ex-XFL guy under center? The simulation must be glitching again. PJ Walker's numbers were good enough to earn another start, but he also managed a stunning 3.8 YPA the week before, so this QB situation is far from settled. The Carolina backfield at least seems to be in good hands post-CMac, with D'Onta Foreman and and Chuba Hubbard both going off against a normally stout Tampa Bay run defense, and the defense has been solid, ranking 10th in yards per play allowed. They've just been on the field too much — 31st in total plays against, while the offense is 29th in plays runs. If they can find a little more consistency on the attacking side of the ball ... it would be entirely in keeping with Chaos Season (TM pending) if the Panthers wound up winning the division with, like, an 8-9 record after sacking Matt Rhule.

They'll have to get through the mighty Falcons to do it, though! Yes, that was sarcasm. Atlanta got Burrowed last week, but the real issue is that the offense is starting to sputter without Cordarrelle Patterson, failing to top 17 points in two of the three games he's missed. Tyler Allgeier has a 3.3 YPC during that stretch, and he's very much looking like a continuation of the legacy of Qadree Ollison, Brian Hill, etc. — Day 3 draft picks who prove pretty quickly they are not the answer. The Devonta Freeman era was a long time ago now in football years. Patterson's aiming for a Week 9 return, for what that's worth, but I still think this team needs to do what the Steelers did. Rip off the Marcus Mariota band-aid and see what Desmond Ridder can do. Mariota's kept them afloat only because the AFC South's been so feeble, and if the Bucs were 5-2, the tenor of the discussion would be very different. The fact of the matter is, the passing game's going nowhere with him at the helm, and you've spent your last two first-round picks on receiving options with elite talent who are stagnating because they aren't getting the ball. The last time Drake London and Kyle Pitts saw double-digit targets was Week 4. That's not double digits each; that's combined. How are they supposed to develop under those circumstances? Does Arthur Smith have them working on their blocking? What's more important for the future of this franchise, beating out the Panthers for that 8-9 division win and first-round exit in the playoffs, or the development of the two guys you plan to build your offense around? Like, how is this even a debate? Is this too many questions in a row? I don't care, I'm mad and have worked myself into a shoot about the whole situation. Grady Jarrett deserves better.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Sam Darnold (IR-R, ankle), RB Hubbard (out, ankle), C Pat Elflein (IR, hip), CB Jaycee Horn (questionable, ribs), S Jeremy Chinn (IR, hamstring)
ATL injuries: RB Patterson (IR, knee), RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), CB A.J. Terrell (out, hamstring), CB Casey Hayward (IR, shoulder), S Jaylinn Hawkins (out, concussion)

CAR DFS targets: Walker $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (ATL 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), Terrace Marshall $3,500 DK / $5,200 FD (ATL 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ATL DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $2,800 DK / $4,200 FD (30th in sacks, t-26th in takeaways)
ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 30th in red-zone conversions at 42.9 percent; ATL 21st in red-zone defense at 59.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 ATL, average score 25-17 ATL, average margin of victory 11 points. The road team has won four straight meetings, but all four were decided by a single score

The Scoop: Foreman leads the CAR backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Walker throws for 240 yards and a score to DJ Moore but also a pick-six to Richie Grant. Allgeier gains 60 yards. Mariota throws for less than 200 yards, but hits Olamide Zaccheaus for one score while running in another. Falcons 24-14

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

While Justin Fields' rampage against the New England defense last week was impressive, it's actually the first time this season that trick has worked. In the Bears' prior two wins, he had zero rushing TDs and didn't reach 50 rushing yards in either. Depending on your perspective, his passing is also getting a bit better — the last four games he has an 8.3 YPA, though that comes with a 58.2 percent completion rate and 3:2 TD:INT — so this is still a very, very limited offense. The Chicago defense is also posting some good numbers, not allowing more than 20 points in four of the last five games, but that comes with a caveat too. During that stretch they've faced the Texans, Giants, Commanders and then last week's Patriots' squad that couldn't decide who it's quarterback was. The last time they faced an offense with plenty of talent and without continuity issues, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings hung 29 points on them. The Bears have also placed themselves in the seller category before the trade deadline by shipping out Robert Quinn, but it's always risky to try to guess how a locker room is going to react to that kind of thing.

The 5-2 Cowboys got Dak Prescott back last week but didn't actually need him to do too much against the Lions. Given what Jerry Jones is paying him, though, the bar is a little higher than "bespoke Cooper Rush." Prescott may have to sling it around more this week, but only because the offense probably won't have Ezekiel Elliott to lean on — Tony Pollard seems like a backfield upgrade, but he's never handled 20 touches in a game in his career so Dallas could be reluctant to stick him in a bell-cow role, even as a one-off. (Weirdly, I now get to mention Qadree Ollison for the second time this week, as he could be an interesting deep-league pickup if he's activated from the practice squad to back up Pollard.) As long as the defense continues playing at an elite level, it probably doesn't matter what coordinator Kellen Moore calls up on offense. This unit is second in yards per play allowed and in points per game allowed, not to mention first in sacks and pressure rate, tied for fifth in takeaways, etc., etc. It's probably a bad week for the Bears to be missing multiple starters along the offensive line ...

The Skinny

CHI injuries: LG Cody Whitehair (IR, knee), C Lucas Patrick (IR, toe), RT Larry Borom (out, concussion)
DAL injuries: RB Elliott (doubtful, knee), WR Noah Brown (questionable, foot), WR James Washington (IR, foot), TE Dalton Schultz (questionable, knee), LT Tyron Smith (IR, knee), RT Terence Steele (questionable, neck), LB Micah Parsons (questionable, shoulder)

CHI DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Pollard $6,100 DK / $6,300 FD (CHI 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Cowboys DST $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (first in sacks, t-5th in takeaways, CHI 32nd in sacks allowed)

CHI DFS fades: Fields $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (DAL first in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-5th in passing TDs allowed), Dante Pettis $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
DAL DFS fades: Prescott $6,600 DK / $7,200 FD (CHI third in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: CHI t-27th in red-zone conversions at 47.4 percent; DAL fifth in red-zone defense at 42.9 percent

The Scoop: David Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Khalil Herbert gains 40 yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards, gets sacked six times and throws two picks. Pollard romps for 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Prescott throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb, and KaVontae Turpin finally returns a kick to the house after weeks of teasing one. Cowboys 27-7

Miami at Detroit (+3.5), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Tua Tagovailoa's return last week wasn't exactly a resounding success, but the Dolphins got the job done against the Steelers — or at least, Pittsburgh's secondary didn't get the job done and dropped approximately 41 would-be INTs. Tagovailoa's still undefeated in games he's finished this season, though, and Miami's winless in the games where he didn't take the final snap, so give him the MVP trophy now, I guess. That Week 2 offensive explosion against the Ravens still feels like a mirage, though. They caught Baltimore's secondary at its absolute nadir, and the Dolphins haven't scored more than 21 points in any other week, with or without Tua (oh oh, I can't liiiiiive, with or without Tua.) Right now, this feels like a team destined for a wild-card berth at best, and certainly not one that's going to challenge the Bills in the AFC East, even if they do have that one miraculous win against their division rivals in the bank already. If there's a chance for Miami to take a step forward in the second half it might have come on the team's own back end, which hasn't been at full strength all year. Unfortunately Byron Jones still isn't practicing after offseason ankle surgery, and Xavien Howard can't seem to get 100 percent healthy.

At 1-5, the Lions are in the lead for the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, meaning they'll get their pick of Jared Goff replacements. It's not yet clear whether the massive offensive slowdown Detroit experienced after Week 4 was due to a whole lot of injuries, the league figuring out coordinator Ben Johnson's scheme, or some combination of both, but this should be a good test for both theories. D'Andre Swift is ready for his first action in a month, and maybe this week Amon-Ra St. Brown can stay on the field the whole afternoon. They'll need to score points to stay competitive — the defense is comfortably in last in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed, and the Lions haven't coughed up less than 24 points in any game yet. It might be time for another Tuaruption.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RT Austin Jackson (IR-R, ankle), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (questionable, back), CB Howard (questionable, groin), CB Jones (PUP-R, ankle)
DET injuries: WR St. Brown (questionable, concussion), WR DJ Chark (IR, ankle), WR Jameson Williams (NFI-R, knee), WR Quintez Cephus (IR, foot), LG Jonah Jackson (questionable, neck), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), DE Charles Harris (out, groin), DE Romeo Okwara (PUP-R, Achilles), S Tracy Walker (IR, Achilles), S DeShon Elliott (out, finger), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (out, ankle)

MIA DFS targets: Tagovailoa $6,200 DK / $7,700 FD (DET 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Raheem Mostert $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (DET 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyreek Hill $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Jaylen Waddle $6,700 DK / $7,800 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Mike Gesicki $3,800 DK / $5,400 FD (DET 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
DET DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: Lions DST $2,300 DK / $3,000 FD (t-31st in sacks, t-29th in takeaways)

Key stat: MIA t-22nd in third-down conversions at 36.6 percent; DET 31st in third-down defense at 47.9 percent

The Scoop: Mostert racks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Tua throws for 330 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) twice and Waddle and Gesicki once each. Swift returns to pile up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Goff throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding St. Brown (who also tops 100 yards) and T.J. Hockenson. Dolphins 41-27

Arizona (+3.5) at Minnesota, o/u 49 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

On the surface, it looks like the Cards' offense got rolling again last week in a barn burner against a Saints team was missing major pieces on both sides of the ball. In reality, Arizona got nearly 30 percent of its points on defense, and Kyler Murray had perhaps his least productive performance of the year. If any stat is the "spot the struggling quarterback" metric it's air yards per completion (basically, how much of the work the QB does on the plays that actually succeed) — Murray's in the bottom three this year, alongside Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. DeAndre Hopkins topped 100 yards in his season debut (and accounted for more than 50 percent of Murray's passing yards doing it), Eno Benjamin broke out in a lead role, and the NFC West is still a mess, so all hope is not lost in the desert. Even so, this still feels more like a fairly talented unit being held back by a coach who has no answers, and an offensive line getting wracked by injuries, than one that's about to carry the team to a winning streak.

The Vikings are coming out of their bye healthy and riding high in the NFC North, 2.5 games up on the Bears and Packers with a win over each already in their back pocket. Minnesota's been one of the most consistent teams in the league, so give Kevin O'Connell a lot of credit there — the offense has scored between 23 and 29 points against everyone they've faced except the Eagles, while the defense has yet to allow more than 25. That Kirk Cousins-led attack hasn't had a big breakout though, which perhaps bodes well for the second half as it certainly has the talent to post a 30- or even 40-point effort now and then. In fact, Justin Jefferson's really the only player meeting expectations. Cousins has been OK, but he has yet to reach 300 passing yards or three TDs in a game. Dalvin Cook's on pace for more than 1,500 scrimmage yards, but his usage as a receiver has shrunk a bit and he hasn't missed a game yet, so you know he'll wind up in the shop for a couple weeks at some point. Supporting players like Adam Thielen and Irv Smith have mostly been MIA. The defense also might be due for a couple stumbles too, as it's one of only six units in the league giving up six yards a play or worse. To put it simply, the usual wild variance that typically afflicts the Vikings, and which has been running rampant across the league, hasn't hit them yet. Instead they've won four consecutive games by one score. When that dam finally bursts, the chaos should be spectacular.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB James Conner (out, ribs), RB Darrel Williams (questionable, knee), WR Marquise Brown (IR, foot), LT D.J. Humphries (questionable, back), LG Justin Pugh (IR, knee), LG Max Garcia (out, shoulder), C Rodney Hudson (out, knee), K Matt Prater (questionable, hip), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, back)
MIN injuries: S Lewis Cine (IR, leg)

ARI DFS targets: Murray $7,500 DK / $8,200 FD (MIN 28th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Hopkins $7,400 DK / $7,900 FD (MIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Zach Ertz $5,100 DK / $6,000 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
MIN DFS targets: K.J. Osborn $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Smith $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: Cardinals DST $2,500 DK / $3,600 FD (t-27th in sacks, MIN t-5th in sacks allowed, t-4th in giveaways)
MIN DFS fades: Jefferson $9,100 DK / $9,000 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR1), Thielen $6,200 DK / $6,200 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: ARI 28th in third-down conversions at 33.7 percent; MIN seventh in third-down defense at 34.7 percent

The Scoop: Benjamin gains 80 yards and a TD. Murray throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Hopkins (who tops 100 yards again) and Ertz. Cook jets for 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins breaks out for 320 yards and two more TDs, hitting Osborn and Smith. Vikings 34-21

Las Vegas at New Orleans (+1.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Josh Jacobs Pre-Revenge Tour continued last week, as he topped 150 scrimmage yards for the third straight game and found the end zone three times, giving him six rushing scores over that stretch. As the Raiders declined the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, he'll be a free agent in the offseason, and he seems intent on making Vegas regret that decision. Of course, the team also now has all the incentive in the world to run him into the ground, so the 27.3 touches a game he's been averaging during his eruption might not slack any time soon. The scrimmage yards crown in the NFL this season could be decided by whether Jacobs or Saquon Barkley breaks down first. During that same three-game stretch, Derek Carr has a 67.0 percent completion rate and 7.4 YPA but only a 3:0 TD:INT and barely 220 passing yards a game, as Vegas simply hasn't needed to lean on its aerial attack. That hasn't hurt Davante Adams, but it's left precious little production for anyone else.

It's hard to blame the Saints for just sticking with Andy Dalton under center and seeing what happens, considering they're 2-5 but still only one game back in the NFC South. What's happened is a Jekyll and Hyde routine from the veteran QB, who exploded for 361 yards and four TDs last week in a losing effort — mainly because he also threw two pick-sixes. The offense remains a long way from being at full strength so I can understand wanting some stability, but if Dalton is viewed as the safe and stable option right now, I shudder to think what Jameis Winston is doing in practice. They could always just lean a little harder on Alvin Kamara of course, and he has reached 100 scrimmage yards in three straight, but I appreciate Dennis Allen's commitment to making more fantasy GMs' heads explode by working in Taysom Hill. (If he were officially designated an H-back instead of a tight end, I wonder if there's be less of a brouhaha over his position? I mean, Travis Kelce takes direct snaps in the red zone on designed plays too. I don't hear anyone calling for him to be labeled a quarterback.) The defense, also missing key bodies in the secondary, has given up at least 30 points in three consecutive weeks, so yeah, squeeze every point you can out of Hill or Rashid Shaheed or whoever.

The Skinny

LV injuries: WR Adams (questionable, illness), WR Mack Hollins (questionable, heel), TE Darren Waller (questionable, hamstring), LB Divine Deablo (questionable, back), S Johnathan Abram (questionable, illness)
NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (out, foot), WR Jarvis Landry (out, ankle), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, hamstring), TE Adam Trautman (questionable, ankle), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, chest), CB Paulson Adebo (questionable, knee), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, abdomen), CB Bradley Roby (IR, ankle)

LV DFS targets: Hunter Renfrow $4,900 DK / $5,600 FD (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS targets: Dalton $5,500 DK / $7,100 FD (LV 30th in passing DVOA, 27th in passing yards per game allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), Tre'Quan Smith $4,400 DK / $5,300 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

LV DFS fades: Waller $5,400 DK / $5,500 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO t-6th in red-zone conversions at 64.0 percent; LV 30th in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent

The Scoop: Jacobs rumbles for 110 combined yards and a score. Carr throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, both to Adams (who tops 100 yards). Kamara responds with 130 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Dalton throws for 250 yards and a second score to Smith while Taysom also runs in a TD. Saints 31-27

New England at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I still can't entirely wrap my head around the way Justin Fields ran all over the Patriots' defense last week. I've seen New England defenses look out-matched from a talent perspective, or out-schemed. I can't remember the last time I saw one look flat out unprepared, especially for a game plan that, frankly, everyone in the stadium should have known was coming. The Pats are still 3-4 and we're all used to Belichick teams putting together a second-half surge, so they seem like as good a bet for a wild-card spot as anyone below .500 in the AFC now, but there's clearly a lot this team needs to get sorted out, and not just under center. At the moment, it seems like Belichick will wait until Mac Jones is fully healthy before yanking the rug out from under him and giving the job to Bailey Zappe, but based on their respective performances so far in 2022, there's no reason to think Zappe won't be the guy when crunch time comes.

I wasn't hugely invested in Breece Hall from a fantasy team perspective, though I did have a couple shares, so I say this more as a fan — that knee injury is one of the most heartbreaking things that's happened on a football field in a long time. Rookie about to ascend to superstardom, long-downtrodden team rising to contender status on his back ... it was all there laid out in front of the Jets fort a magical 2022, and then Hall's ACL gave way. That's not to say they should be written off without him. They're still 5-2, still have a bunch of draft capital invested in the passing game, and still boast a Robert Saleh defense that's in the top seven in yards per play allowed. Zach Wilson's going to have to start showing something, though. He's now one full season (17 games) into his career and has a 56.0 percent completion rate, 6.3 YPA and 10:13 TD:INT. No wonder Elijah Moore wants out.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, hamstring), C David Andrews (out, concussion), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, shoulder), CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, ankle), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)
NYJ injuries: RB Hall (IR, knee), WR Corey Davis (out, knee), LT Duane Brown (questionable, shoulder), LT George Fant (IR, knee), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, triceps), RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RT Max Mitchell (IR, knee)

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (fifth in sacks, t-3rd in takeaways)
NYJ DFS targets: Michael Carter $5,900 DK / $6,600 FD (NE 28th in rushing DVOA, 26th in YPC allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS fades: Rhamondre Stevenson $6,400 DK / $8,000 FD (NYJ third in YPC allowed, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NYJ DFS fades: Garrett Wilson $4,200 DK / $5,400 FD (NE fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NE 12th in third-down conversions at 41.8 percent; NYJ 20th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 10-0 NE, average score 32-11 NE, average margin of victory 20 points. NE has won 12 straight meetings

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 60 yards, while Damien Harris adds 50. Jones throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry. Carter pops for 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Wilson throws for 250 yards but tosses a back-breaking pick-six to Jack Jones in the fourth quarter. Patriots 21-13

Pittsburgh (+10.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Steelers came pretty close to stealing a win in Miami last week, all things considered, but those increasingly look like the only wins they're going to be able to get this season. Kenny Pickett has shown flashes of promise but has a brutal 2:7 TD:INT and 6.1 YPA through his first four NFL games, and no matter who's been at the controls of the offense, Pittsburgh's been unable to move the ball consistently. They've only scored more than 20 points once (and needed overtime to do it), and more shockingly they've produced more than 20 first downs in a game only once. That's Texans/Bears/Broncos territory. Najee Harris has yet to deliver 100 scrimmage yards in a game, and he's only reached 80 yards twice. Diontae Johnson's on pace for barely 800 receiving yards and has yet to score a TD. George Pickens' emergence and Chase Claypool's semi-resurgence are nice, but they aren't enough, and Claypool could be shipped out the door. Maybe that would be enough of the defense was up to the franchise's historical standards, but injuries and not being able to get off the field have the unit in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed. T.J. Watt is close to a return, but even he won't be able to single-handedly turn this ship around.

In other words, the Eagles should easily win the Battle for Pennsylvania, for whatever weight the word "should" carries during Chaos Season. The league's last undefeated team comes out of its bye refreshed, and it didn't have any serious injury concerns heading into the week off. Jalen Hurts maybe isn't elite as a passer and is benefiting from some good work in the open field by his receivers (he's second to Jimmy Garoppolo with 6.8 yards after catch per completion), but he's still taken a big step forward and not only leads all QBs in rushing touchdowns with six, he has double the second-place total (held by exactly the guys you'd expect: Marcus Mariota, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.) The defense is maybe even better, sitting among the league leaders across the board statistically. Their race to catch the 1972 Dolphins, on the 50th anniversary of the NFL's only undefeated campaign (no wonder people think this sport is fixed), is the story of the season, and their schedule doesn't seem to have many speed bumps. If they make it that far with an unblemished record, Week 14 in Jersey against the Giants and Week 16 in Dallas should be very interesting.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: K Chris Boswell (questionable, groin), DE Larry Ogunjobi (out, knee), EDGE Watt (IR-R, knee/pectoral), CB Levi Wallace (out, shoulder)
PHI injuries: DE Derek Barnett (IR, knee)

PIT DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Eagles DST $3,900 DK / $4,600 FD (t-1st in takeaways, PIT t-27th in giveaways)

PIT DFS fades: Pickett $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA), Johnson $5,600 DK / $6,300 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Pickens $4,700 DK / $5,500 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: Dallas Goedert $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PIT t-21st in third-down conversions at 41.6 percent; PHI sixth in third-down defense at 43.7 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris manages 70 yards. Pickett throws for under 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Miles Sanders racks up 90 yards and a touchdown, while Kenneth Gainwell also vultures a score. Hurts throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Eagles 37-3

Tennessee at Houston (+2), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The AFC South is so weird. There's only one team with a positive point differential, and it's the 2-5 Jaguars. Meanwhile the Titans have overcome an 0-2 start to eke out four consecutive wins, including a sweep of the Colts, and they might already have a stranglehold on the division crown if no one else gets their act together. That winning streak looks like a complete mirage to me, though. The toughest opponent they had was the Raiders, and Tennessee's offense remains stuck in neutral, even with Derrick Henry back in steamroll mode. I raised an eyebrow at the Steelers' lack of first downs above; well, the Titans have been even worse at extending drives, and they have yet to record more than 19 first downs in a game. Only the Panthers have moved the chains less often this year. The defense has been stingy when it comes to allowing points, holding everyone but the Bills to 22 or less, but the Titans are 29th in yards per play allowed. The one thing going their way during the winning streak has been turnover differential (plus-6, 8:2 in their favor), but Matt Ryan accounted for half those giveaways himself, and they won't see him again this year, or maybe ever. Tennessee's game plan is basically "hand it to Henry, and hope the other guys make mistakes." That might be just enough to get them past other mediocre teams and right into the playoffs in this division, but that 41-7 loss to Buffalo in Week 2 could be a prelude to what happens when they face real squads like Kansas City and Philly later in the year. There's also the question of whether that turnover advantage will evaporate with Ryan Tannehill not suiting up and rookie Malik Willis making his first NFL start.

I can't figure out why my little jury-rigged algorithm likes the Texans so much this season. They have only one win and could easily wind up with the top pick in the 2023 draft, and they aren't particularly good at anything, yet someone I keep finding myself trying to justify upsets for them. Hey, just so long as I'm consistent, it's actionable info, right? At least they're playing another not-particularly-good team here, so who knows what might happen. Dameon Pierce is looking like the 2022 version of rookie-year James Robinson, and over the last four games he's piled up 470 scrimmage yards, a 5.0 YPC and three TDs. Aaaaand that's about it. Davis Mills ain't the guy — he was on the high end of his range with a 7.4 YPA last week — and even if he was, his receiving corps is underpowered and banged up. Like the Titans, the defense hasn't given up a ton of points due to a suspect schedule but sits 28th in yards per play allowed. It's reductive, but if the most significant difference between these teams is the running backs then sure, give me the home 'dog ... (checks run defense stats) gulp.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (out, ankle), WR Treylon Burks (IR, toe), LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee), DE Jeffery Simmons (questionable, ankle), EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee)
HOU injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, wrist), WR Nico Collins (questionable, groin), LG Kenyon Green (questionable, shoulder), C Justin Britt (NFI-R, personal), RG A.J. Cann (questionable, illness), DE Jonathan Greenard (IR, calf), DE Rasheem Green (questionable, knee)

TEN DFS targets: Henry $8,400 DK / $10,000 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed)
HOU DFS targets: Mills $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (TEN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), Phillip Dorsett $3,200 DK / $5,300 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Brevin Jordan $2,600 DK / $4,400 FD and Jordan Akins $2,600 DK / $4,600 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Pierce $6,300 DK / $7,300 FD (TEN third in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: TEN t-22nd in third-down conversions at 36.6 percent; HOU 19th in third-down defense at 41.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TEN, average score 28-26 HOU, average margin of victory 12 points. TEN has won three straight meetings at NRG Stadium

The Scoop: Henry thunders for 130 yards and a TD. Willis throws for less than 200 yards, gets picked off twice and loses a fumble that Jerry Hughes falls on in the end zone. The rookie does run in a score, though. Pierce manages 50 yards. Mills throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Chris Moore and Akins. Texans 27-14

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Last week's win was way more about the Packers than it was the Commanders, but it did probably cement Taylor Heinicke's status as a local hero and fan favorite. Washington's still only 3-4, but the current holder of the third wild-card spot in the NFC is at 3-3 (that would be the Rams), so the dream of all four NFC East teams making the postseason remains alive. Heinicke led the offense to 23 points against Green Bay, its best effort since Week 2, and that seems about right for this unit. Terry McLaurin's still special, but no one else is. Curtis Samuel's hot start has faded, while Brian Robinson's inspiring return to action is slowly giving way to the grim reality of his 3.4 YPC. The defense is just as mediocre, and Chase Young could still be a few weeks away from providing a jolt on that side of the ball. The Commanders are so meh, I can't even think of a good way to work in a pun for cornerback Rachad Wildgoose. (If they were still the WFT, I could have gone with some sort of Untitled Goose Game reference I suppose, but they aren't, so I won't.)

Pity the poor Colts' marketing team. They probably had this one circled ever since the schedule got released. "Hey, it's the Carson Wentz Bowl!" Now their stockpile of social media memes is worthless, and they'll have to scramble to make it Sam Ehlinger Day instead. Frank Reich's decision to bench Matt Ryan stinks of desperation, but at least the veteran QB had the good grace to get himself injured last week so they could use his shoulder as cover for the switch. Reich, of course, ruined that by saying Ehlinger was going to start no matter what, but that's out of Ryan's hands. Just like the football's been any time he's tried to hang onto it this year. To be fair, nine INTs and an unfathomable 11 fumbles (even if the Colts only lost three of them) in seven games didn't leave Reich much choice. Having Ehlinger under center probably just means an even heavier workload for Jonathan Taylor rather than added life for the passing game, and the focus with the kid is almost certainly going to be on protecting the ball, not airing it out. That's likely bad news for Michael Pittman and the other receivers

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Wentz (IR, finger), EWR Jahan Dotson (out, hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (questionable, calf), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), RG Saahdiq Charles (questionable, illness), DE Young (IR, knee), LB Cole Holcomb (out, foot), CB William Jackson (out, back)
IND injuries: QB Ryan (out, shoulder), DE Kwity Paye (out, ankle), CB Kenny Moore (questionable, finger)

WAS DFS targets: McLaurin $6,000 DK / $6,800 FD (IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
IND DFS targets: Ehlinger $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (WAS 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Alec Pierce $4,600 DK / $5,800 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Parris Campbell $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (WAS 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: Samuel $5,300 DK / $5,600 FD (IND fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
IND DFS fades: Mo Alie-Cox $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD and Jelani Woods $2,500 DK / $4,500 FD (WAS fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: IND 16th in third-down conversions at 40.2 percent; WAS second in third-down defense at 29.5 percent

The Scoop: Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while Antonio Gibson adds 50. Heinicke throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to McLaurin (who tops 100 yards). Taylor bounces back with 120 yards and a score. Ehlinger throws for 210 yards and a TD to Campbell. Commanders 23-17

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (+1.5), o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Christian McCaffrey's San Francisco debut didn't exactly go swimmingly, but that wasn't his fault. Or the offense's as a whole, for that matter — the Niners piled up more than 400 yards, only for the defense to let Patrick Mahomes lead Kansas City to more than 500. The injuries on that side of the ball have reached a tipping point, and that Week 9 bye can't come soon enough. For this week, though, they're just going to have to hope the CMac was worth it. Deebo Samuel's also with a hamstring strain, but Jimmy Garoppolo still has enough weapons between Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and the new guy to do some damage. Just in case though, might be time to dust off the old Kyle Juszczyk TD predicti ... wait, he's out too? Oh, now they're really in trouble.

Fortunately, the Niners are playing the one team to which they can't seem to lose. Kyle Shanahan's gotten the better of Sean McVay in seven consecutive regular-season clashes, though the latter's the only one with a ring, so he's probably OK with that trade-off. The Rams have had a shaky start to their title defense, but their three losses have come against the Bills, Cowboys and 49ers — either legit contenders, or their nemesis. Coming out of their bye, Los Angeles is a little better off health-wise than their NFC West rivals, though the Rams' offensive line is still help together by chewing gum and paper clips. Matthew Stafford gets Van Jefferson back, but the more encouraging development was Allen Robinson's solid game against Carolina before the bye. If Stafford can get any kind of time in the pocket, he's got plenty of targets, including that Cooper Kupp guy no one can seem to slow down. If he doesn't got the time, well, that's what Tyler Higbee's for.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, knee), WR Samuel (out, hamstring), WR Jauan Jennings (questionable, hamstring), DT Javon Kinlaw (IR, knee), DT Arik Armstead (out, foot), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (IR, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, calf), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, knee), CB Jason Verrett (questionable, knee)
LAR injuries: RB Cam Akers (out, personal), LT Joe Noteboom (IR, Achilles), LG David Edwards (IR, concussion), RG Tremayne Anchrum (IR, lower leg), RG Logan Bruss (IR, knee), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: Ray-Ray McCloud $3,200 DK / $5,300 FD (LAR 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), 49ers DST $3,100 DK / $4,500 FD (second in sacks, LAR 28th in sacks allowed, 29th in giveaways)
LAR DFS targets: Jefferson $3,000 DK / $5,400 FD and Ben Skowronek $4,100 DK / $5,300 FD (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: McCaffrey $8,700 DK / $8,500 FD (LAR second in rushing DVOA, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed, fifth in passing DVOA vs. RB), Danny Gray $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (LAR second in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAR DFS fades: Darrell Henderson $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (SF fifth in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: SF seventh in third-down conversions at 43.2 percent; LAR t-15th in third-down defense at 40.0 percent

The Scoop: McCaffrey puts together 80 combined yards. Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Aiyuk (who tops 100 yards) and McCloud. Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 260 yards and a score to Kupp, but he also tosses a pick-six to Jimmie Ward. 49ers 27-14

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Seattle, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

If I'm not mistaken, the biggest margin of victory this season came in the Bills' 38-3 shellacking of the Steelers in Week 5. Let's see how long it takes the Giants to reach plus-35 in all their wins combined — so far, their six wins have netted them plus-27. Almost there! (Unless Buffalo sets the bar higher before then .... foreshadowing!) Every game Big Blue has played this season has been a nailbiter, and last week was no exception. The Jaguars did everything they could to sabotage themselves, and still came about the length of a football short of a winning score on their final play. Talk about a bend but don't break defense. The Giants keep getting by on equal parts Saquon Barkley and pure moxie, though the fact that Daniel Jones has committed only one turnover (a fumble, naturally) the last four games doesn't hurt either. This still doesn't feel sustainable, but hey, enjoy the ride while it lasts.

The Seahawks have two fewer wins than the Giants but don't have the Eagles in their division, so they're both among the early season's surprising success stories. Geno Smith keeps rolling, and it doesn't seem to matter much who he's throwing to. DK Metcalf gets hurt? No problem, here's two TD strikes to Marquise Goodwin. Geno has yet to complete less than 64 percent of his passes in a game this year, and has multiple touchdowns in five of seven starts. If that wasn't enough rookie Kenneth Walker erupted for 352 rushing yards and four TDs in the last three games as he locks himself into the lead role in the backfield. As for the defense ... err, well, did I mention the offense has topped 30 points in three of the last four weeks?

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Kenny Golladay (out, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), TE Daniel Bellinger (out, eye), LG Ben Bredeson (out, knee), RT Evan Neal (out, knee), DE Azeez Ojulari (IR, calf), DE Leonard Williams (questionable, elbow)
SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle), WR Metcalf (questionable, knee), WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hamstring), RG Gabe Jackson (questionable, hip), EDGE Darrell Taylor (questionable, groin), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee)

NYG DFS targets: Barkley $8,100 DK / $9,500 FD (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Wan'Dale Robinson $4,700 DK / $5,900 FD (SEA 26th in DVOA vs. WR2), Chris Myarick $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD (SEA 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
SEA DFS targets: Walker $6,500 DK / $8,400 FD (NYG 30th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

NYG DFS fades: Richie James $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA fourth in third-down conversions at 45.6 percent; NYG sixth in third-down defense at 34.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 11 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Saquon churns out 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for 220 yards and a score to Myarick. Walker answers back with 120 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Will Dissly and Noah Fant. Seahawks 27-17

Green Bay (+11.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

For the first time in his career, Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog. The Packers have earned it. They've lost three consecutive games to teams that are a combined 14-7 ... or, from a different perspective, they've lost three straight to the Giants, Jets and Commanders. The offense took a step backward every week during that skid, bottoming out (?) last week when Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon somehow only combined for 38 rushing yards, even though the passing game wasn't doing much either. Rodgers has been busy babbling about "simplifying" things and throwing his young wideouts under the bus, but he's the guy with the ball in his hands. Trying handing it off more than 12 times a game, dude, see how it goes. Maybe not having either Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb around as security blankets this week will force Rodgers to — I can't even finish that sentence with a straight face. Rodgers will do what he always does, which is whatever he wants, and anyone with Jones or Dillon shares will just have to hope they can involved somehow, although on paper this isn't the week to try a ground and pound game plan.

The Bills come out of their bye week like a dragon emerging from a nice slumber on its hoard, looking for new enemies to roast and cities to plunder. The Eagles have the perfect record, but the Bills still seem like the Super Bowl favorites, and their one loss still seems statistically impossible when you look back at it. Buffalo hasn't made any big splashy trades to bring in reinforcements, but they don't really need to as reinforcements are arriving anyway in the form of a healthy Dawson Knox and, soon, Tre'Davious White. The defense is either elite (or if you want to nitpick, has slid to a notch below elite but has the capacity to get back there once it's at full strength), Josh Allen's headed for an MVP Award, Stefon Diggs has been all but unstoppable, and Gabe Davis has been the Pippen to his Jordan in a breakout campaign. Bringing in another big name would just be unfair.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Lazard (out, shoulder), WR Cobb (IR, ankle), WR Christian Watson (questionable, hamstring), LT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), LG Elgton Jenkins (questionable, knee), EDGE Rashan Gary (questionable, concussion)
BUF injuries: RT Spencer Brown (out, ankle), CB White (PUP-R, knee), S Micah Hyde (IR, neck)

GB DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $5,900 DK / $5,900 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed), Diggs $8,900 DK / $9,100 FD (GB 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

GB DFS fades: Rodgers $6,000 DK / $6,800 FD (BUF fourth in passing DVOA, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Jones $7,800 DK / $7,100 FD and Dillon $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Sammy Watkins $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Amari Rodgers $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (BUF seventh in DVOA vs. WR3), Robert Tonyan $4,100 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. TE), Packers DST $2,300 DK / $3,600 FD (t-29th in takeaways, BUF first in sacks allowed)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB 25th in third-down conversions at 35.4 percent; BUF 13th in third-down defense 

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and loses a fumble on a strip sack that Von Miller takes to the house. Singletary rattles off 80 yards and a score. Allen lights it up and throws for 350 yards and three TDs, hitting Diggs (who tops 100 yards) twice and Knox once while running in a touchdown of his own. Bills 45-6

Baltimore (+1) at Tampa Bay, o/u 45.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

If the pattern on the Ravens' coin-flip season continues they'll lose this one, but hey patterns are meant to be broken. Lamar Jackson's passing production has fallen off a cliff since his hot start, but I'm not sure many folks appreciate just how much his numbers have cratered — in the last four games, he's managed only 648 passing yards, 267 rushing yards and a 3:4 TD:INT. By comparison, Justin Fields has 751 passing yards, 269 rushing yards and a 3:2 TD:INT, with a rushing TD tossed in for good measure. That poor stretch for Lamar roughly coincides with Rashod Bateman's foot injury, and while the wideout was back in the lineup last week, he doesn't seem to be 100 percent healthy yet. Mark Andrews is also banged up and playing through a knee injury, so things are looking a bit bleak for Jackson. If any team needs Odell Beckham dropped onto its roster, it's the Ravens. Fun fact: a different running back has posted the most rushing yards among the position group in four consecutive games (Justice Hill, then J.K. Dobbins, then Kenyan Drake, then Gus Edwards.) Maybe it'll be Mike Davis Szn in this one? For that reason alone you probably shouldn't blow your FAB budget on Edwards, but then again, he's probably more likely to have value in the second half of the year than any of the other options. On the bright side, the secondary's gotten marginally healthier and come together nicely, and the last four QBs the unit's faced have averaged 215.3 yards per game with a 6.9 YPA, and the last quarterback to post big numbers against them was Mac Jones.

The Bucs' loss last week maybe isn't an inexplicable as it seems on paper considering they have one win in their last five games. Aside from a futile attempt to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes in Week 4, this offense hasn't scored more than 21 points in a game, and it just looks all kinds of disjointed. Tom Brady failed to throw a TD pass last week for the first time in 12 games, including last season's playoffs, while Leonard Fournette tied a season low with 10 touches. I'm really curious to know where Byron Leftwich expected the points to come from against the Panthers. It'd be easy to say, "It's Brady, he'll turn it around," but he's 45 now and kind of seems done with the whole football thing, to be honest. I dunno, man. Tampa Bay's still on top of the NFC South even at 3-4, and they still have the most talented roster in the division, but something just isn't right. In fact, if you want to get conspiratorial about it, things have been off with this team ever since definitely-not-a-coach-any-more Bruce Arians got kicked off the sideline after that scrum in Week 2 against the Saints. Hmm ... of course, the Swiss cheese offensive line and secondary could be a factor here too. Nah, it's probably something to do with Arians.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Dobbins (IR, knee), RB Edwards (questionable, knee), WR Bateman (questionable, foot), TE Andrews (questionable, knee), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), DE Calais Campbell (out, illness), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, quadriceps), CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable, hamstring), CB Kyle Fuller (IR, knee), S Marcus Williams (IR, wrist)
TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee), WR Russell Gage (out, hamstring), TE Cameron Brate (out, neck), LG Luke Goedeke (out, foot), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (out, foot), CB Carlton Davis (out, hip), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (out, quadriceps), S Antoine Winfield (out, concussion), S Logan Ryan (IR, foot)

BAL DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Demarcus Robinson $2,800 DK / $7,500 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL 12th in red-zone conversions at 58.3 percent; TB 31st in red-zone defense at 76.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Drake leads the BAL backfield with 60 yards, but Edwards vultures a TD. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a score to Devin Duvernay while running for 50 yards and a touchdown of his own. Fournette bounces back with 80 yards and a score. Brady throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Mike Evans and Cade Otton, but he has to watch while Justin Tucker drills another game-winning kick as time expires. Ravens 27-24

Past Performance:
Last week's record: 6-8, 4-10 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 51-56-1, 43-62-3 ATS, 55-52-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1339-825-8, 1048-1054-70 ATS, 790-839-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)