NFL Free Agency: Thursday Trade-athon

This article is part of our NFL Free Agency series.

The quantity of fantasy-relevant signings generally decreases with each passing day in mid-March, especially this year when the first few hours of the free-agent negotiating period (Monday) were so darn busy. It almost seems as if agents and players responded to the larger-than-expected salary cap less aggressively than teams did, quickly accepting contract offers that look awfully similar to what similar players received the past couple years.

That's not to say there haven't been big financial winners — Titans WR Calvin Ridley ($23m AAV) and Raiders DT Christian Wilkins ($82.75m guaranteed) come to mind — but mostly it seems like last week's chatter about contracts soaring through the roof hasn't come to fruition even with the cap rising by a record $30.6 million year-over-year. And while there are still good players available, it now looks all but inevitable that a bunch of teams will roll over $10 million or more of cap space to 2025.

That list of teams includes some that have been quiet, like New England, but there's a good chance it'll also include Washington, Tennessee and Chicago. For those four teams, it's probably smart business. There's not much reason to push all your resources toward a season in which the realistic goal is something like eight wins or maybe sneaking into the final wild-card spot. Given the ability to roll over cap space to future seasons in which you might actually have a Super Bowl shot, it makes sense to only spend enough so that your young QB and upcoming stars aren't surrounded by scrubs.

Granted, the Patriots are flirting with the danger zone where things are such a mess that they can't even get a good evaluation of their young QB and new coach... assuming they come out of the 2024 NFL Draft with either Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy. Looking at other rosters around the league, other teams most in danger of a lost/disaster season would seem to be the Panthers (again) and Giants.

The Giants you can at least make an argument for based on the likelihood of better O-line health and the potential for Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux to carry the defense. Carolina, on the other hand, doesn't have any clear point of strength on the roster and still lacks a dangerous downfield weapon for QB Bryce Young. There's still time for the Panthers and Patriots to make big moves, but right now it's looking pretty ugly.

Thursday was a slow day for big news until the evening, at which point things blew up with Keenan Allen getting traded to Chicago and Marquise Brown signing with the Chiefs. We'll start there, before looking at other significant Thursday trades/signings and then glancing at the best players still unsigned at fantasy positions (QB/RB/WR/TE). 

Thursday News

WR Keenan Allen traded for a fourth-round pick

The return seems light until you consider that Allen has one year and $23 million in non-guaranteed compensation remaining on his contract. The Chargers may have even flirted with releasing him, and now will rebuild their WR corps around Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze.

Note that the Chargers signed TE Hayden Hurst earlier Thursday and released WR Mike Williams on Wednesday. The Hurst signing doesn't mean they won't draft TE Brock Bowers, but the combination of moves certainly makes a WR more likely with the No. 5 pick than it was before. They could also trade down, of course, and it's rather clear that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to run the ball a ton despite having a quality QB. Gus Edwards lands in the winner's circle for a second straight day, though he might have trouble with TDs and efficiency if the Chargers don't do something about their barren WR room.

The Bears, on the other hand, now have Allen, DJ Moore and 2023 fourth-round pick Tyler Scott as their top wide receivers, along with a pair of plus pass catchers at tight end (Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett) and a solid receiving back in D'Andre Swift. That's good news for Caleb Williams, who presumably will be QB1 despite the struggle to find a trade partner for Justin Fields. It's not as good news for anyone counting on big-time volume for Allen and/or Moore, though both are capable of eclipsing 25 percent target share even in crowded situations.

• Value Up: QB Caleb Williams, WRs Joshua Palmer & Quentin Johnston, RB Gus Edwards (slightly)
• Value Down: QB Justin Herbert, WR DJ Moore, WR Keenan Allen, WR Tyler Scott, TE Cole Kmet, TE Gerald Everett (slightly)

WR Marquise Brown signs a one-year contract

This is a perfect signing for the Chiefs, with Hollywood being a massive upgrade on Marquez Valdes-Scantling and giving the team a legitimate downfield presence that won't drop one-third of the deep balls he gets his hands on. Brown is obviously flawed, but reports of a one-year deal worth "up to $11 million" certainly make it sound like the Chiefs got a bargain.

I wonder if he left some money on the table to play with Patrick Mahomes for a year and try to rebuild his value after a disappointing 2023 in which he spent the first half of the year playing with backup QBs and the second half dealing with a heel injury. There was no report of offseason surgery, nor any update at all.

Brown, a 2019 first-round pick, has had a rather strange career. He blew up for 5-147-2 and 8-86-0 in his first two NFL games, but he didn't do a ton else his first two seasons besides make big plays/touchdowns here and there (15 TDs, 1,353 yards). Brown then appeared to break out in Year 3 with 682 yards and six TDs through eight games, only to get completely shut down the rest of the year despite continuing to see big volume (much of it from Tyler Huntley, to be fair).

After that, Brown was traded to Arizona, where he averaged 4.5 catches for 49.3 yards in 26 games the past two seasons while getting more snaps with backups than with Kyler Murray. The speedy wideout turns 27 in June, and potential outcomes in Kansas City range from a true breakout season to being a 60-target decoy/deep-ball specialist. Given how little he did the past two years, I think dynasty managers should be happy about the shakeup, even if other situations might've guaranteed more volume.

Back in Arizona, the top WRs currently rostered are 2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson, slot/return specialist Greg Dortch and journeyman vet Chris Moore. Of course, everyone and their mother is mocking Marvin Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 overall. They also have TE Trey McBride, and a boatload of other draft capital, i.e., it's not actually bleak for QB Kyler Murray.

• Value Up: WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson, QB Patrick Mahomes
• Value Down: WR Justin Watson

QB Sam Howell traded for draft picks

This one is interesting for a number of reasons. Let's start with Geno Smith, who is this offseason's version of Neo, seemingly dodging one bullet after another. First, and most important, he was kept on the roster through mid-February when his 2024 base salary became guaranteed. He restructured his contract shortly thereafter, and now the trade for Howell suggests the Seahawks aren't interested in Justin Fields, who would've been the most threatening backup QB in the league.

Trading for Howell would also seem odd if the Seahawks planned to aggressively pursue rookie quarterbacks, e.g., trading up for J.J. McCarthy. They might still take someone like Bo Nix or Michael Penix outside the Top 15 picks if they like the value, to be fair.

GM John Schneider's post-trade press conference was illuminating for a couple reasons, starting with his revelation that the team wanted to re-sign Drew Lock and only lost him to the Giants because New York offered an opportunity to compete for the starting job. Daniel Jones has a full guaranteed for his 2024 compensation, but he's coming back from an ACL tear and the Giants can get out of his contract without too much pain after the season.

In terms of Howell, the trade suggests he didn't have a ton of value around the league, with Washington swapping pick No. 102 for No. 78 and pick No. 179 for No. 102. According to trade value charts, that's about the value of a late-third round pick or a fourth-rounder. I'd put it as closer to mid-R4 value, unscientifically. 

Howell has two years remaining on his rookie contract, which has the same expiration date as Smith's deal, though the Seahawks will have a similar decision to make next offseason when they'll have another opportunity to easily move on from the 33-year-old QB. A failed 2024 might even lead to a 2025 rebuild with Howell under center (or at least competing with a young QB).

I was a big Howell supporter last offseason and even as recently as November, but then he had a 4:12 TD:INT ratio over the final seven games of the 2023 season. He was much better before that, though with an astronomical sack rate in a mostly unimpressive Washington offense that was throwing a ton of short passes. As much as he has starter-level physical tools, Howell now seems more likely to be a career backup/stopgap.

• Value Up: QB Geno Smith, QB Drew Lock
• Value Down: QB Daniel Jones (knee)
• TBD/Neutral: QB Sam Howell

QB Desmond Ridder traded for WR Rondale Moore

This is a sensible trade from both ends. The Cardinals get a backup QB with two years remaining on a third-round rookie contract. The Falcons get a second-round bust who is still only 23 (24 in June) and has shown just enough to think that a change of scenery and coaches might allow him to be a useful player.

Two different coaching staffs in Arizona viewed Moore as a gadget/screen guy, not giving the diminutive WR (5-7, 180) a chance to make plays downfield even though he posted a 4.29 40 and 42.5-inch vertical coming out of college. The Falcons presumably will try to use him in a different fashion, though some carries and trick plays wouldn't be a bad idea. In any case, Moore profiles as the fifth receiving option on Atlanta's roster right now, behind Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Fantasy value is a longshot, but Moore was at the point where any change is good change.

This trade also hints at Taylor Heinicke sticking around as Atlanta's backup, though a release to clear some cap space wouldn't exactly surprise me.

• Value Up: WR Rondale Moore
• Value Down: QB Clayton Tune
• TBD/Neutral: QB Desmond Ridder, QB Taylor Heinicke

WR Curtis Samuel signs a three-year contract with Buffalo

The deal reportedly is for $24 million and can go up to $30 million with incentives, though that doesn't mean much until we see the structures and guarantees (I'll have an article breaking down contracts later this month). Whatever the case, Buffalo is a good landing spot for Samuel, pairing him with a top QB in an offense that just lost Gabe Davis to Jacksonville.

The Bills might've been better served by signing a deep threat like Marquise Brown, but he was probably out of their price range, and Samuel at least offers speed even if it's typically been deployed horizontally more so than vertically. Samuel's proficiency on shorter routes isn't great news for Khalil Shakir, though it isn't a death blow by any means.

• Value Up: WR Curtis Samuel, QB Josh Allen
• Value Down: WR Khalil Shakir, TE Dawson Knox
• TBD/Neutral: WR Stefon Diggs

RB AJ Dillon re-signs with Green Bay

This one is mildly surprising and might be reflective of Dillon not having much of a market after looking a step slow in his contract year. His YPC mark has dropped with each passing season, from 5.3 as a rookie (on only 46 carries) to 4.3 and then 4.1 and finally all the way to 3.4 last year. Dillon is still one of the largest RBs in the league, however, and is a good pass catcher for someone his size (career 78.2 percent catch rate, 8.9 YPR, 6.9 YPT).

After years of playing second fiddle to Aaron Jones, the 247-pounder will now be behind Josh Jacobs, who projects for an even larger workload than AJ would've. The good news for Dillon is that Green Bay probably represented one of his better chances to stick in a No. 2 role rather than falling back to No. 3. That said, Dillon was lousy enough last season that Emanuel Wilson could take the job away. This is definitely one where you want to check out the contract details before drafting the guy to get a better picture of how he's viewed by NFL teams.

From Jacobs' standpoint, it's good news if Dillon and Wilson are the only competition for backfield snaps. Just don't assume that's the case, as the Packers could still add someone in the draft, possibly even on Day 2.

• Value Up: RB AJ Dillon
• Value Down: N/A
• TBD/Neutral: RB Josh Jacobs, RB Emanuel Wilson

RB Joe Mixon signs a three-year, $27 million extension

The trade for Mixon wasn't especially surprising, with Houston needing an RB and electing to send the Bengals a seventh-round pick for a guy that otherwise might've been released and received a bit more money in free agency. What I definitely didn't expect was for Mixon to then sign an extension with significant guarantees.

This is another one where we really need details to pass judgment, but initial reports of $13 million guaranteed suggest the Texans essentially are committing to Mixon for both 2024 and 2025. There's probably nothing assured beyond that, but it still seems like a strange choice to make with a far-from-elite RB for his age-28 and age-29 seasons.

My thoughts aren't what's important, of course, as Mixon is now with another team where he can potentially score a bunch of fantasy points just by being competent and playing a lot of snaps in a high-flying offense. The contract certainly suggests the Texans plan to have him on the field a bunch, for better or worse.

• Value Up: RB Joe Mixon
• Value Down: RB Dameon Pierce

Secondary/Non-fantasy News Bits

• RB Ty Johnson re-signed with the Bills.
• TE Hayden Hurst signed with the Chargers.
• WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine re-signed with the Titans.
• RB Cam Akers was non-tendered by the Vikings, becoming an unrestricted free agent.
• TE Jody Fortson signed with the Dolphins.
• WR Trent Sherfield signed with the Bills.
• WR Corey Davis was released from the reserve/retired list.
• QB Josh Johnson signed with the Ravens.
• QB Nathan Peterman signed with the Saints.
• OLB Joey Bosa restructured his contract to stay with the Chargers.
• CB Kendall Fuller signed with the Dolphins.
• DT Arik Armstead signed with the Jaguars.
• S Vonn Bell signed with the Bengals.
• LB Devin White signed with the Eagles.
• LB Tyrel Dodson signed with the Seahawks.
• S Kamren Curl signed with the Rams.
• CB Jourdan Lewis signed with the Cowboys.
• LB Devin Bush signed with the Browns.
• DL Quinton Jefferson signed with the Browns.
• DT DJ Reader signed with the Lions.
• S DeShon Elliott signed with the Steelers.
• DE/OLB D.J. Wonnum signed with the Panthers.
• DT Tim Settle signed with the Texans.
• C Coleman Shelton signed with the Bears.

Best Remaining Free Agents

Quarterbacks

• Ryan Tannehill
• Tyler Huntley

Not much here. Tannehill is a high-end backup and Huntley about an average one or slightly better than average. Huntley returning to Baltimore would make sense, even after the Ravens re-signed Josh Johnson on Thursday.

Running Backs

• J.K. Dobbins (Achilles)
• Ezekiel Elliott
• D'Onta Foreman
• Dalvin Cook
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Rico Dowdle
• Rashaad Penny
• Royce Freeman
• Kareem Hunt
• Cam Akers (Achilles)

Elliott is my favorite pick here to have fantasy value in 2024 and perhaps help a real-life team make the playoffs. He hasn't been explosive for years now, but he's a good blocker, has decent hands, won't miss assignments and can handle huge workloads when needed (see: late 2023). 

Foreman is probably the only other guy listed that I'd consider taking in the late stages of a best ball draft. Some of the others might gain that status later this spring/summer if they land in the right situation, but currently they seem more likely to be in No. 3 roles or out of the league. Dowdle would be interesting if he re-signs with Dallas, given the lack of competition currently on the roster and his familiarity with the team/scheme. Elliott also makes sense there, of course, but at this point there's a decent-to-good chance the lead guy is a rookie (Blake Corum, anyone?).

Wide Receivers

• Mike Williams
• Tyler Boyd
• Michael Thomas
• Odell Beckham
• Josh Reynolds
• Hunter Renfrow
• DJ Chark

I list these guys in approximately the order I'd draft them if I were taking part in the world's saddest fantasy draft. I've never been a big fan of Williams and definitely won't be buying even at a reduced price in his first year back from an ACL tear and now presumably playing for a new team/coach.

I actually think Boyd will have the best 2024 of any of these guys, though his lack of a ceiling makes Williams the better fantasy pick (just in case I'm wrong).

Tight Ends

• Tanner Hudson
• Robert Tonyan

Hudson looked decent for the Bengals late last season but nonetheless was replaced by another all-catch, no-block tight end: former Dolphin/Patriot Mike Gesicki. I can't imagine drafting any of the current free agents at tight end in any format, including deep dynasty startups or best ball leagues that go more than 20 rounds. The best hope for TE-needy teams at this point is either drafting someone or trading for a guy.