NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Wild-Card Weekend

One of my favorite things about the NFL playoffs is that "styles make fights." However, the games become a lot trickier when coaches throw us for a loop. The nature of the one-and-done season often brings out the best in certain coaches. Conversely, if a game plan goes wrong, the contest can become ugly in a hurry. We saw some of that throughout the weekend. 

Browns at Texans

• The Browns-Texans game had some trends coming in. First, C.J. Stroud was excellent against zone coverage this season but struggled when defenses played man-to-man. With the Browns at the top of the league in their usage of man coverage, it looked like a bad matchup for Stroud. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco thrived when the Browns used play action. In addition, Houston consistently struggled against play action, so this was likely to play into Cleveland's hands. Of course, none of that mattered.
• C.J. Stroud has shown us all year that he's a superstar. Aside from that, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik cooked up a masterpiece. On numerous occasions, Houston pass catchers were running wide open behind the defense. The play design was flawless, and the Cleveland defensive backs had no answer for downfield passes.
• In addition, Browns' defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz could not get his incredible pass rush going. In the Week 16 meeting between these teams, Schwartz showed a willingness to move Myles Garrett away from ace offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. Instead, he often moved Garrett toward the weaker tackle, Charlie Heck. In this game, I noticed that Garrett was usually lined up over Tunsil. As a result, the Cleveland pass rush was largely ineffective.
• Back to Stroud, he only needed to throw 21 passes, as the game was basically over in the middle of the third quarter. Three big pass plays made his day great. Two of those plays involved tight ends. Brevin Jordan was used on a well-designed screen pass that he ran in for a 76-yard score. Later, Dalton Schultz got behind the defense for an easy 37-yard TD. Clearly, the Houston game plan saw issues they could exploit against this defense by using the tight ends. Actually, Schultz dropped another long pass that could have resulted in an even bigger day for Houston's lead tight end. Stroud ended the day with 274 yards and three touchdowns. If there were still a few doubters of Stroud out there, that number is closer to zero today.
• Well, Nico Collins deserves his own section. The only target he didn't catch was on a potential 60-yard TD when he was wide open behind the defense. Unfortunately, Stroud overthrew him by a few yards. Otherwise, Collins repeatedly torched the Cleveland corners. The third-year receiver's biggest play was a 38-yard catch on which he got behind his defender. Later, his touchdown came on a pass into the flat in which Tunsil set him up with an excellent block. Not only did Collins lead the team with seven targets, no other Texans player had more than three targets. 
• After the Texans passed this test against an excellent defense, I can't wait to see the Houston offense in the next round.
• For the Browns, it was a great season that ended earlier than many expected. Ultimately, playing with backup offensive tackles hurt them. The Texans' defensive coaching staff, led by DeMeco Ryans, had a brilliant plan. Houston found ways to send relentless pressure on the edges with its talented defensive front. Knowing that Cleveland was a pass-heavy team with Joe Flacco, it made slowing the passing attack the top priority. The Browns' tackles had no answers for Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard and others. Flacco was under siege all afternoon.
• In terms of Flacco, we saw much of what we had seen in the regular season. He threw more than 40 passes and surpassed 300 yards. He led the team on multiple scoring drives. However, he also made big mistakes. In the regular season, he often got away with them. In this game, the mistakes were season ending. With the Browns in field-goal range midway through the third quarter, they were in position to cut into Houston's 10-point lead. Had Cleveland scored, this could have been a great finish. While trying to get away from pressure, Flacco tried to throw the ball away. You guessed it. The pass was intercepted by Steven Nelson, which Nelson turned into a pick six. Having to double down with aggressive passing when the game got out of hand, Flacco threw another pick six, and the season was over. Flacco gave us a great story this season. It was unfortunate it had to end this way. But really, was there any other way it was going to end for the gunslinger?
• What a great season David Njoku had! He capped off a career year with a 93-yard playoff performance. As great as he was this season, he had 56 targets in six games with Flacco at QB. He also averaged six receptions and 80.5 yards during that span. If Flacco doesn't return, be careful not to value Njoku based on this six-game sample. Although he was excellent all year, his only four dominant games of the year came with Flacco throwing him the ball.
• It seemed that Amari Cooper was limited in this game. On his first reception, he stayed on the ground, apparently feeling discomfort from the heel issue that caused him to miss the Week 17 game. During each of his two years in Cleveland, Cooper has been a fantasy star. Going into his age-30 season, I expect him to continue playing at a high level in 2024.

Dolphins at Chiefs

• This was the fourth-coldest playoff game in NFL history. The weather appeared to have a much bigger impact on the warm-weather Miami squad than it had on the Chiefs.
• The only highlight for the Dolphins came in the second quarter. As he did many times this year, Tua Tagovailoa appeared to just throw the ball in Tyreek Hill's direction. Just like we saw many times, Hill attacked the football, followed with a few brilliant moves while turning on the speed and ended up in the end zone. The touchdown cut the Chiefs' lead to 10-7. I was surprised that Hill was not used on creative running plays in this game. It was clear the passing game would struggle in the bitter cold. It's possible that Hill could have made a difference if used in a more creative capacity. We'll never know what would have happened, but it seemed like a good idea.
• Although the Chiefs' run defense was not great at slowing down rushing attacks that stayed committed to it this season, the Dolphins got little going on the ground. The duo of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane rushed 14 times for 42 yards. Neither of these explosive players had a run of more than eight yards. Mostert just had the two best years of his career but is 32 next season. He was severely undervalued in fantasy drafts. Certainly, he will be much more expensive in 2024 drafts. Just remember, he dealt with injuries down the stretch, and his career has been filled with injuries. He will be a high-risk, high-reward player. 
• In terms of De'Von Achane, we all remember the three games when he produced 101.8 PPR points. When drafting next season, don't forget that the rookie finished the season scoring 69 PPR points in his last six games. Also, keep in mind that he missed time with injuries on three separate occasions and was often on the injury report. There's no doubt that Achane is ridiculously talented. It will be deciding what draft cost makes sense that will be difficult for fantasy managers.
• Some may be stunned to realize that Tua Tagovailoa threw "only" 29 TD passes in 17 games. Remember, he started the year with eight touchdowns in his first three games. Unfortunately, he only threw six scoring strikes in his last six games. In addition, he had one or fewer touchdowns nine of his last 12 games. The good news was that Tagovailoa stayed healthy. It was the first time in his career he played 17 games. In his first three seasons, he had missed 14 games. It will be hard to see him as an elite fantasy option in 2024 based on his overall production in 2023.
• The best thing about the Chiefs' gameplan was that they tightened up their touch distribution. Patrick Mahomes threw 41 passes. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice combined for 22 targets while no other teammate had more than three. Isiah Pacheco carried 24 times. With all the mistakes the ancillary players made this year, letting the best options decide the team's fate seemed wise. That decision played a big role in the Chiefs winning easily.
• It showed excellent mental toughness for the Chiefs to play at a high level in such extreme circumstances. Mahomes showed his greatness and leadership. He consistently made big plays to move the chains. He bought time and didn't force many passes that weren't there. That was a major improvement from the regular season.
• Despite a couple drops, Travis Kelce caught seven passes for 71 yards and was integral in moving the chains. Since Week 12, Rashee Rice has usually seen at least nine targets per game. The rookie has been at his best since Week 15, as he's had at least 91 yards in three of four games. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco has been a force on the ground. He's rushed for at least 89 yards in four of the last six games. Along with Mahomes, this trio will be the key if Kansas City is to move past the divisional round. 

Packers at Cowboys

• For the sixth time this season, we saw a team score at least 40 points in a Dallas home game. Surprisingly, it was the Packers lighting up the scoreboard this time. In previewing the game this weekend, I felt that if Green Bay was able to lean on Aaron Jones, they would have a chance to hang with the Cowboys. That couldn't have been a bigger understatement. The Packers punted on the second drive of the contest. Otherwise, they had no issues scoring. With a balanced offense, we saw the best of the Packers.
• The star of the game was Aaron Jones. For the fourth game in a row, Jones posted at least 111 rushing yards. Unlike the last three games, he found the end zone. Three times. If the team really wanted, he could have been given a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter for a potential fourth TD. As the playoffs move forward, the star runner has fresh legs. Don't be surprised if he continues to dominate as long as the Packers stay alive. Hopefully, Green Bay doesn't move AJ Dillon (neck) back into a prominent role if he returns to action next week. Dillon's presence often keeps Jones from getting into a groove.
• Playing with a big lead for almost the entire game, Jordan Love only attempted 21 passes. Regardless, he still threw three touchdown passes while throwing for 272 yards. The vaunted Dallas' pass rush was rarely in a situation where they could sell out to rush the passer. That allowed Love to carve up the defense. The only receiver with a big game was Romeo Doubs. He caught all six targets for 151 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, both Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave caught TD passes.
• The Green Bay offense will be tough for any defense to slow as long in the playoffs.
• Entering this game, it appeared that the Dallas offense had an extreme mismatch against Joe Barry's defense. The Packers gave up at least 30 points in recent games against the Cardinals and the Panthers. The weakness of the Green Bay defense was defending the middle of the field. That seemed to match up perfectly with the strengths of the Cowboys' passing attack. Simply stated, Dallas scored seven points in the first half before posting some garbage-time numbers late. The Cowboys were out-coached and out-played.
• For those who gambled or played DFS, the trio of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson posted strong numbers. Those who cashed tickets don't care about style points. That said, the production by those players was almost solely when the game was out of hand.
• In terms of fantasy, Prescott, Lamb and Ferguson had excellent seasons. It's unlikely we'll see much improvement next year from the numbers that Prescott and Lamb posted. However, Ferguson could take another step forward in the tight-end rankings.
• The big story will be about the future of coach Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys' roster has excellent talent. It wouldn't be a surprise if they advance in the 2024 playoffs with better coaching.

Rams at Lions

• After three playoff games that were largely non-competitive, we were treated to an excellent Sunday night game between the Lions and Rams.
• This game seemed on track to be a shootout. The Lions scored TDs on their first three drives. In addition, the Rams put up a pair of second-quarter touchdowns. Going into the locker room, Detroit led 21-17. 
• Things tightened in the second half. It was clear the defenses made adjustments. The Detroit defense ramped up its pass rush, especially since it realized Los Angeles had little intention of running the football. Aidan Hutchinson led a high-pressure attack that helped slow the Rams. On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense did a better job of getting the Lions into multiple third-down passing situations that Detroit couldn't convert.
• As a result, the only second half scoring was three field goals. The shootout never materialized. Both teams played well, but Detroit earned a hard-fought 24-23 win.
• Jared Goff was excellent in the first half, but was unable to extend the lead. That said, he did enough to make a statement to his former team. When he was with the Rams, Goff was teammates with Josh Reynolds. Apparently, Detroit planned to give Reynolds a chance for payback as well. The receiver was second on the team with seven targets, catching five passes for 80 yards.
• Otherwise, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown had their usual solid performances that allowed the Lions to grind out a victory. It also should be noted that Sam LaPorta played through a knee injury and scored the only receiving touchdown for the Lions.
• The good news for Detroit is that with Dallas losing, it will be at home for next week's playoff game. With this team having proven it can hang with just about any team in the league, the Lions will be a tough out in the playoffs.
• If there was any question as to whether Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua is the top receiver on the Rams, that was clearly settled in this game. Kupp often struggled to get open. He also was unable to win in the end zone, even when the defense wasn't selling out to stop him. Meanwhile, Nacua set another record. This time it was the most receiving yards by a rookie in a postseason game. Look for Nacua to be drafted in the second round of most 2024 fantasy drafts. However, Kupp likely will fall outside the top-5 rounds.
• Matthew Stafford injured his hand in the first half, but continued to play through pain at an elite level. The only issue was his inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. Both of the Rams' touchdowns came from outside the 35-yard line. However on each of the three occasions they were deep in the red zone, the team settled for field goals. Playing in Sean McVay's offense, the veteran QB should again flirt with top-12 QB status next year.
• Kyren Williams was effective, but the Rams went with a pass-heavy attack. Williams had 13 carries, but with Stafford throwing 36 passes, there was little opportunity for him to have a big game. Also, even when the Rams were in the red zone, they weren't close enough to get him a goal-line carry. The second-year RB was a fantasy star this year, and he likely will be selected in the first round of many fantasy drafts.