This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Most of the league plays Saturday in Week 16, but Christmas Sunday offers a three-game NFL slate beginning at 1:00 p.m. EST. First, the Packers visit the Dolphins for a battle between teams currently on opposite sides of their respective Conferences' playoff bubbles. Then, the Broncos and Rams face off in a clash between arguably the two most underwhelming teams relative to expectations this season. To cap things off, the Buccaneers will look to get back on track against the banged-up Cardinals.
Sunday's biggest NFL DFS contest on Yahoo is the NFL $50K Holiday Baller Special. Yahoo's getting into the Christmas spirit, so every entry will win something, but first place will get a grand prize of $5,000. This contest pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $50,000 split between all 4,900 entries, with a maximum of 147 entries per participant. Sunday's Holiday Baller Special will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $50K Holiday Baller Special lineup for Week 16 will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested plays include options on both sides of the ball from Sunday's largest favorite, as well as numerous speedy playmakers from the game expected to feature the most scoring.
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady, TB at ARI ($28): Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five starts, and he's likely to remain productive against a Cardinals defense that's allowing the most points per game in the league (26.6). The 6-8 Buccaneers will stay atop the NFC South standings with a win in this one, while Arizona's in free fall, having dropped four consecutive games while losing its top two quarterbacks to injuries during the losing streak. Unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is easily the largest favorite among Sunday's games at -7.5 points.
Honorable Mentions
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. GB ($33); Aaron Rodgers, GB at MIA ($26); Russell Wilson, DEN at LAR ($22)
RUNNING BACK
Aaron Jones, GB at MIA ($24): Jones has lost out on some goal-line looks to AJ Dillon in recent weeks, but the former remains a productive option both on the ground and through the air. Jones is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season and has accumulated 18 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns over the past four games. His proficiency as a receiver out of the backfield will likely come in handy against a Dolphins defense that has struggled to defend pass-catching running backs. Miami has allowed a league-high six receiving touchdowns to running backs and is one of seven teams to give up more than 600 receiving yards to the position.
Latavius Murray, DEN at LAR ($15): Murray thrived in a favorable matchup last week, racking up 130 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against the Cardinals. A similar script is likely to unfold against the banged-up Rams, with Denver relying on its defense and a running game led by Murray against a Los Angeles defense that allowed Jones and Dillon to combine for three scrimmage touchdowns in last week's loss to the Packers.
Honorable Mentions
James Conner, ARI vs. TB ($22); Cam Akers, LAR vs. DEN ($16); Leonard Fournette, TB at ARI ($13)
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. GB ($36): The Packers have a big-name cornerback in Jaire Alexander, but that's unlikely to deter Miami from peppering Hill with targets as usual. Only Justin Jefferson has more catches and yards than Hill's 109 and 1,529. After a slow start in the touchdown department, Hill has also managed to find the end zone six times in his last six games, so he's been the complete package heading into this pivotal home game for the team that paid a king's ransom to acquire him this past offseason.
Christian Watson, GB at MIA ($25): While Miami went the trade route to upgrade its receiving corps, the Packers drafted their No. 1 receiver of the future. Well, the future is now for Watson, as the rookie second-round pick had scored seven touchdowns in his last five games. While much of the league deals with difficult weather conditions this weekend, this one could be a track meet, as the weather will be cold by Miami standards but quite temperate overall. This game's slate-high over/under of 50 combined points bears out that notion.
Chris Godwin, TB at ARI ($19): Both Godwin and Mike Evans should get their chances to exploit the vulnerable Arizona defense. Godwin has been targeted at least eight times in each of his last nine games, and he has at least six catches in 10 of the last 11. The veteran wide receiver's floor is high thanks to all that volume, while Godwin's ceiling is bolstered by his scoring ability. After finding the end zone in three of his last five games, Godwin's ready to make another house call against the team that allows the most points in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI vs. TB ($22); Jerry Jeudy, DEN at LAR ($19); Van Jefferson, LAR vs. DEN ($10)
TIGHT END
Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. DEN ($11): You aren't exactly choosing from the cream of the crop when it comes to tight ends on this slate, but Higbee's a nice value. He ranks fifth in catches (56) and 10th in yards (482) among tight ends, plus Baker Mayfield showed last week that he's capable of unlocking Higbee in the red zone, as they connected for the TE's first touchdown of the season. Denver has been elite at shutting down wide receivers, but the Broncos have allowed the sixth-most catches (73) and ninth-most yards (785) to tight ends, so look for Higbee to operate as Mayfield's favorite target in this matchup.
Honorable Mentions
Cade Otton, TB at ARI ($14); Greg Dulcich, DEN at LAR ($13); Trey McBride, ARI vs. TB ($10)
DEFENSE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB at ARI ($18): This unit should have no trouble imposing its will on third-string quarterback Trace McSorley. Tampa Bay's proficiency against the run will make it tough for James Conner to get going on the ground, and McSorley hasn't proven capable of beating teams through the air. Given Arizona's deficiencies on defense, the McSorley-led offense will likely have to take some risks to keep up, at which point the big plays could start to come for Tampa Bay's defense.
Honorable Mentions:
Denver Broncos, DEN at LAR ($18); Los Angeles Rams, LAR vs. DEN ($13); Green Bay Packers, GB at MIA ($10)
