This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The Week 1 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 12 games, as the entire league will be in action except for the teams playing on Thursday Night Football (Ravens-Kansas City), Friday night (Packers-Eagles), Sunday Night Football (Rams-Lions) and Monday Night Football (Jets-49ers). Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 1, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $350,000 to the top 4,162 finishers, including $35,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 20,500 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $500k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Among the suggested Week 1 plays are a young QB-WR stack looking to build on last season's success and a pair of three-down RBs facing defenses that struggled to contain the position last season.
QUARTERBACK
C.J. Stroud, HOU at IND ($30): Stroud's coming off a stellar rookie campaign in which he led the NFL with 273.9 passing yards per game in the regular season and won a playoff game. The second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft bolstered that league-leading average with 324 passing yards per game and a 4:0 TD:INT in two meetings with the AFC South rival Colts, who didn't make many significant changes on defense after allowing the fifth-most points per game (24.4) last season. Stroud has more pieces around him on offense heading into 2024. Houston traded for five-time 1,100-yard receiver Stefon Diggs, re-signed WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz, and has Tank Dell back healthy after he missed the final five games of 2023 due to a leg injury. The Texans even upgraded their pass catching at RB, replacing Devin Singletary (30 catches in 2023) with Joe Mixon (52 catches in 2023). Given all that firepower, it's no surprise Texans-Colts is tied with Jaguars-Dolphins for the highest over/under among games in the Sunday Baller Slate (49.0 points).
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Richardson, IND vs. HOU ($31); Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. JAC ($28); Baker Mayfield, TB vs. WAS ($27)
Against the Grainers:
Kyler Murray, ARI at BUF ($30); Caleb Williams, CHI vs. TEN ($29); Jayden Daniels, WAS at TB ($29)
RUNNING BACK
Rachaad White, TB vs. WAS ($30): The Commanders allowed a league-high 30.5 PPG last season, and while those struggles were attributed primarily to a league-worst pass defense, Washington didn't exactly excel at defending RBs, allowing the fifth-most scrimmage yards (2,451) and fourth-most TDs (19) to the position. White's set to reprise his three-down workhorse role in Tampa Bay after ranking fourth among RBs with 1,539 scrimmage yards last season, and he's primed for a significant workload against Washington's vulnerable defense with the Buccaneers projected to play from ahead.
Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR ($26): Kamara missed four games last season, including one of the two against the NFC South rival Panthers, but the well-rounded RB was effective when he played, averaging 89.2 scrimmage yards per game for a 17-game pace north of 1,500 yards. The Panthers gave up a league-high 21 rushing TDs to RBs last season. Kamara should stay involved regardless of how the game script unfolds, as he finished second among RBs with 75 catches last season to soften the blow of rushing for a career-low 694 yards. With 2023 third-round draft pick Kendre Miller (hamstring) beginning the season on IR, Kamara's main competition for carries is Jamaal Williams, who rushed for just 306 yards on 2.9 YPC last year.
Honorable Mentions:
Kenneth Walker, SEA vs. DEN ($29); Joe Mixon, HOU at IND ($29); James Cook, BUF vs. ARI ($28)
Against the Grainers:
Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. HOU ($32); James Conner, ARI at BUF ($25); Chase Brown, CIN vs. NE ($22)
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. JAC ($35): Hill was on pace to break the NFL receiving record for most of last season, due in part to a hot start by the entire Miami offense, which has a history of thriving in warm weather and freezing up when the conditions get colder down the stretch. This Week 1 battle between Florida team figures to be a track meet filled with offense, and that's the perfect environment for the speedy Hill, fresh off league-leading totals of 1,799 receiving yards and 13 receiving TDs in 2023. He should be worth paying up for against a Jacksonville secondary that allowed 18 receiving TDs to WRs last season, fifth-most in the NFL.
Nico Collins, HOU at IND ($27): Collins has more competition for targets with the signing of Diggs and return of Dell, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Collins remain the top target for Stroud after breaking out with 1,297 receiving yards in his third NFL season and subsequently signing a three-year, $72.75 million extension in May. He can thank the Colts in part for that payday, as two of his four highest career single-game receiving totals came last year against Indianapolis. Across those two games, Collins caught 16 of 18 targets for 341 yards and two TDs. Given that level of dominance, Stroud's bound to look Collins' way early and often against the same opponent.
Jordan Addison, MIN at NYG ($21): Paying up for Justin Jefferson at $32 could also be a good idea, but Addison may well be the superior value against a shoddy Giants secondary that gave up the fourth-most catches and ninth-most yards to WRs last season. Addison was slowed by an ankle injury in training camp after reportedly standing out during OTAs, but he's expected to suit up, and the Vikings have little reason to take a cautious approach with the 2023 first-round pick considering Addison's expected to eventually serve a suspension for a DUI later this season. In the meantime, you're getting good value at just $21 for a player that produced 911 receiving yards and 10 TDs as a rookie last season. While having Sam Darnold at QB isn't ideal, Minnesota's passing game should fare just fine considering Darnold's backup Nick Mullens exceeded 300 passing yards in each of his three starts for the Vikings down the stretch last season.
Honorable Mentions:
Mike Evans, TB vs. WAS ($29); DJ Moore, CHI vs. TEN ($27); Christian Kirk, JAC at MIA ($26)
Against the Grainers:
Drake London, ATL vs. PIT ($28); Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. ARI ($22); Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. LV ($19)
TIGHT END
Evan Engram, JAC at MIA ($19): The available talent at tight end in the Sunday Baller slate is diminished with so many big names at the position playing in the other four games, making Engram an even stronger play by comparison. Engram led all TEs with 114 receptions last season and finished third at the position with 963 receiving yards. His established chemistry with QB Trevor Lawrence should earn Engram a significant Week 1 workload while the Jaguars adjust to an offseason overhaul at WR; Jacksonville brought in Gabe Davis and first-round pick Brian Thomas to replace Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. This game is tied with Texans-Colts for the highest over/under in the main slate, and Engram has a nice opportunity to contribute to the scoring against a Dolphins defense that allowed seven TDs to TEs in 2023 -- one shy of second-most in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions:
Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. ARI ($20); Brock Bowers, LV at LAC ($16); Hunter Henry, NE at CIN ($15)
Against the Grainers:
Trey McBride, ARI at BUF ($21); Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. PIT ($18); Jordan Matthews, CAR at NO ($10)
DEFENSE
Los Angeles Chargers vs. LV ($11): You'll be hard-pressed to find a team with a lower-ceiling QB situation in the NFL than the Raiders, who anointed Gardner Minshew their starter under center after he beat out Aidan O'Connell in training camp. The Raiders also lost star RB Josh Jacobs in free agency. Meanwhile, the Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach, and Harbaugh's expected to implement the same defense-first mindset that helped him take the 49ers to a Super Bowl XLVII loss and win a NCAA National Championship last year at Michigan. The Chargers will be motivated to get revenge after being embarrassed 63-21 in Vegas last year, and the Raiders have scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last three visits to LA.
Honorable Mentions:
Cincinnati Bengals vs. NE ($14); New Orleans Saints vs. CAR ($14); Seattle Seahawks vs. DEN ($12)
Against the Grainers:
Cleveland Browns vs. DAL ($16); New York Giants vs. MIN ($13); Tennessee Titans at CHI ($11)
