This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It was another frustrating weekend from a playoff perspective for me. While I had a pretty good read on the regular season, the postseason has just been a different story. A couple of weather-related incidents have given me a view unlucky results, but we're talking about salvaging a possible .500 record as opposed to having a pulse on a final few games of the campaign. Whether you believe there's a script or not, I do think the final two games of the season are relatively easy from a moneyline perspective. It's just a matter of finding the right things to create the most lucrative betting lines possible.
This will effectively count as my final article of this series. We'll do one more essentially as a prop bets piece come the Super Bowl, but from a spread/picks perspective this is essentially the conclusion. May everyone hit on your favorite 10-to-1 parlay in the weekends to come!
Conference Championship Betting Picks For Each Game
Date | Game Matchup | Conference Championships |
Sunday, January 28 | Chiefs vs. Ravens | Ravens -3.5, over 44.5 |
Sunday, January 28 | Lions vs. 49ers | 49ers -7, over 51 |
Predictions for the Conference Championships
Divisional Round Record ATS: 1-3
Divisional Round Record on Totals: 0-4
Playoffs Record ATS: 4-6
Playoffs Record on Totals: 3-7
In this article, we also take a look at Conference Championship odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Each team listed last will play at home.
Chiefs vs. Ravens
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Chiefs at Ravens | Ravens -3.5 | Baltimore -180; Kansas City +150 | 44.5 |
I won't agonize over the Texans call too much. I've been wrong about them all year, so I wasn't surprised at all to see Baltimore wake up in the second half and thoroughly trounce Houston. If anything it's affirmation in my mind that this is Lamar Jackson's year. I've always attributed the long-documented postseason issues for Jackson to Greg Roman, arguably one of the worst offensive coordinators over the past decade. That the Ravens had as much success as they did with an albatross of a play caller really was a testament to the soon-to-be two-time MVP in my mind, and I think my side was on the correct side of the ledger thanks to last week's win.
However, I want all Jackson naysayers to take it on the chin, especially the ones quietly waiting for self-combustion to occur. For that to happen, Baltimore needs to win over Patrick Mahomes. I don't think the missed field goal really would have made a difference for the Bills last week, but while Josh Allen and the Bills are prone to have mental lapses, the Chiefs in the Mahomes era have always done a good job navigating the few in-game mistakes that occur with such pristine effectiveness. That same statement has typically applied to most John Harbaugh coached teams as well.
The Ravens are the better team, but I'm not sure the better team has won all that much this postseason. I'd love this line if we could get off the half point, but either way I have confidence that Baltimore moves on for a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII.
Spread Pick: Ravens -3.5
Total Pick: Over 44.5
Lions vs. 49ers
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Lions vs. 49ers | 49ers -7 | San Francisco -310; Detroit +250 | 51 |
I'll be honest; I just don't think this is going to be all that close. The Lions knocked off what I thought was San Francisco's greatest challenge in the form of the Rams in Round 1, and I think at this point have proven they are clearly the NFC's second best team. The problem is the massive gulf between No. 1 and No. 2.
Brock Purdy was miserable against the Packers last week and probably should have thrown at least three interceptions. Yes, it's fair to say if weather conditions like what occurred Saturday were to happen again, the Niners offense would be in trouble. But Jared Goff is equally bad outside and in poor conditions, and while Jahmyr Gibbs has been a complete revelation in the past two months, the Lions need to win with the pass whereas the Niners can win that way.
Looking at the upcoming forecast in San Francisco, I'm not sure weather concerns really matter all that much, so I'm more focused on just picking the best team. Detroit's defense would be one of the worst by any metric to make the Super Bowl, much less win in the past 15 years with last year's Chiefs team, 2011 Giants and 2006 Colts all rivaling this unit in ineptitude. Each of the other team's were led by a Hall of Fame quarterback and also caught fire from a pass-rushing perspective at the right time. Sorry Goff truthers, that's just not true in this scenario. We just watched Puka Nacua and Mike Evans put together two of the three best postseason performances of the year, and there's still the possibility Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle can add more carnage to the total. Anyone picking the Lions to win over cover is doing so selfishly in an attempt to stymie the increasingly annoying debate between Purdy's legitimacy as an elite quarterback. Believe me, it's absolutely obnoxious conversation as is all talk centered on quarterback win totals, but the nauseous won't end Sunday.
Spread Pick: 49ers -7
Total Pick: Over 51
Conference Championship Best Bets
We ended up hitting five different recommendations from last week including four of the plus-money variety, but a bunch of our opening playoff futures were effectively ended last week. With the books tightening up any market deficiencies with four teams left in play, we'll try to hit on some true long shots.
BetMGM Best Bets for the Conference Championships
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available the Conference Championships. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for the Conference Championships at BetMGM.
- Conference Specials - (+1100) Jahmyr Gibbs most rushing yards of Conference Championships
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for the Conference Championships
Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for the Conference Championships. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115)
WynnBET Best Bets for the Conference Championships
WynnBet has a strong menu of Conference Championships wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.
- Christian McCaffrey over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Brandon Aiyuk over 5.5 receptions (+122)
- Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions (+107)
DraftKings Best Bets for the Conference Championships
DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for the Conference Championships. Here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
- First team to take offensive snap in opponent's red zone -- 49ers (+100)
- Lamar Jackson over 5.5 yards gained on first rush attempt (-105)
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 yards gained on first rush attempt (+100)
- Brian Branch over 5.5 tackles (+105)
- SB LVIII Specials -- Super Bowl winner seed -- No. 1 (-295)
FanDuel Best Bets for the Conference Championships
One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.
- Most playoff rushing TDs -- Christian McCaffrey (+105)
BetRivers Best Bets for the Conference Championships
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these Conference Championship picks.
- Christian McCaffrey under 19.5 rushing attempts (-105)
PointsBet Best Bets for the Conference Championships
For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Conference Championship picks. You can try "PointsBetting" to maximize your return.
- DET/SF SGP -- (-115) Christian McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards, 20+ receiving yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown over 50+ receiving yards