This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures: NFL Awards Picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year and More
JohnnyVTV gave a little NFL taste yesterday with the antipasto that was your 2024 NFL stat leaders picks. Nothing fancy there... or was it? For most people, the awards really hone in as the priority/preferred markets to hit. Let's rip.
The best NFL betting sites have generous sportsbook promos to help boost your bankroll before betting on NFL player futures this season. The BetMGM bonus code
NFL MVP
Arguably the most slanted award in all of pro sports. The MVP is 99.999999% of the time designed for a QB. Only three non-QB's (all running backs) won the award since 2000 with Adrian Peterson being the last in 2012.
Not only is taking a signal caller a virtual necessity, but it typically goes to a player who is the one or two seed in the conference (2008 Peyton Manning was the last three seed or lower to win). Then of course, you need the statistical profile; ala the 4500+ yard passing yards with at least 38 tuddies. When you break it down, there's only a handful of players worth a bet, but the odds have a way of ruining it.
Aaron Rodgers (+2000 at FanDuel)
I gave out Rodgers on my Breaking Bet podcast last week when he was 25/1. Now the number is down to 20/1, which is perfectly fine. Can the four-time MVP shake off that Achilles injury that occurred four snaps into 2023?
Rodgers is playing on a team that has one of the better rosters in the NFL, which includes arguably the top defense, a top-five back, and a top-seven WR. The stats can definitely be there for AR12, who is looking to square up some unfinished business in what could potentially be his final season.
NYJ has an insanely favorable schedule too. After Week 1 in San Fran (winnable), the Jets will see the Titans (away), Patriots (home), Broncos (home), Vikings (away), Bills (home), Steelers (away), Patriots (away) through Week 8, which could feature at least six wins.
The only concern is how Rodgers is feeling and moving around in the early part of the season. The ability is still there. And as it would be, the Jets are one of two teams in the AFC that have a legitimate chance of capturing the top seed over Kansas City. For the number, 12 seems to be one of the most valuable bets preseason. To be honest, though, I'm going look into betting this market during the season.
Patrick Mahomes in the +450 territory is just too short with the looming critical conference-turning matchups against Baltimore and Cincy in Weeks 1 and 2. Jared Goff at 25/1 is also worth a look.
You can stay in the know on NFL MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook this season. If you're new to Caesars, you can sign up using the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for a first-bet offer worth up to $1,000.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Tyreek Hill +800 2u
Like Rodgers, the number I got Hill at is gone for now (given out on my podcast). However, the current +750 on Fan Duel is still good. Tyreek Hill was the main highlight of my stat leader article where he's my pick to lead in yards and catches.
Despite having 1,800 yards, 119 catches, and 13 tuddies last season he still did not win OPOY because Christian McCaffrey was born. That's just bad luck to be fair. If T Hilly has anything close to a 2023 season in 2024, a 2-unit play at his current price is more than good enough. This could be one of the easier seasons to win as well with a lot of players having dealt with QB situations or holdouts. In an award that's this vast and open to basically any offensive skill player, you need some options.
My other considerations: Kyren Williams (60/1 on FD), DJ Moore (100/1 on DK), Marvin Harrison Jr. (150/1 on FD).
Offensive Rookie of the Year
This isn't an award I'm in love with. It's not like MVP to the point where it's 100% a QB award, but it definitely leans that way heavily. For reference, Puka Nacua set the rookie record for the catches and receiving yards in a season and still didn't win because C.J. Stroud had a 23/5 TD-INT ratio with 4,000+ yards and a playoff berth. That said, WRs and RBs definitely do win. In fact, seven of the last 11 winners were non-QBs.
I don't have an official pick at the moment. It's definitely a market where I'm waiting for the right spot during the year. But I will say nobody should be touching Caleb Williams at +120 preseason. Jayden Daniels at +600/+650 is the better pick. Marvin Harrison at the same price is somebody to look at as well.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Similar to OROY, it's so early to start putting money down on a market like this. Yes, there are dudes who come in and dominate right away. The noteworthy point is first first-rounders garner the most attention and praise. Seven of the last 11 winners were defensive linemen. 26 of the last 29 winners were a first-round pick. The criteria can be helpful to follow along.
The guy who has the best bang for your buck right now is probably Byron Murphy at 14/1 (FD) for Seattle. Mike Macdonald coming over from the Ravens and bringing his elite defensive system with him can do wonders for a large human playing in the interior line like Murphy. With strong secondary play in Seattle, it could open up opportunities upfront to rack up some sacks, pressures, and tackles for loss in the run game. Something to keep an eye on, but it's not official for me right now.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Like, DROY, this is a market that usually sees pass rushers win. Only one defensive back has won since 2011 (2019 Stephon Gilmore). Outside of last year when Myles Garrett got gift-wrapped the award with 14 sacks because of a hot start to the season, the winner usually has to rack up about 16 sacks at a minimum with a potential to hit 18. 2017 and 2020 Aaron Donald is an exception to that rule for obvious reasons. Since 2014, only four winners had less than 16 sacks and won (not including Gilmore). Being on a playoff team has been impactful in deciding the winner. Nine straight and 14 of the last 15 winners made the postseason.
Nick Bosa +1000 (FanDuel)
Nick Bosa won in 2022 with a dominant season that featured 18.5 sacks. I actually jumped in on that mid-season. Bosa is the best player on one of, if not, the best defense in the NFL. After a "down" year in 2023 that saw him only register 10.5 sacks, I'm sure Nicky Smaller Bear is ready to get back to business.
In a market like this, it sometimes only takes one big game to completely flip the field - like when he grabbed three sacks against Tampa Bay in '22. While SF doesn't have what many would consider an easy schedule, there's still plenty of opportunities for him to be able to accrue numbers, especially early on against the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals, and Seahawks. If Bosa is back in the realm of 17 or 18 sacks again, we'll definitely be seeing his name as one of the top favorites.
I'm also considering TJ Watt for this award at 8/1. He got straight-up robbed last season. Watt's always a threat to push for 20 sacks, and if anybody can buck the playoff narrative, it's him. However, you can't count out a Mike Tomlin team from sneaking in the postseason either.
Micah Parsons fluttering around +550 is just too short at this point. The advantage he has is he isn't held to the same sack total standard as the pure pass rushers because so much of his value as an off-ball linebacker isn't quantified on the stat sheet. Plus, having the star on his helmet doesn't hurt. I do believe the voters and media may feel he's "due" for the award, which could be a huge deciding factor. Still, Parsons is somebody I would try to wait on to see if you can get an 8/1 or even 7/1 look on.
