Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Seahawks vs. Eagles

We have two teams barely out of first place in their respective divisions facing off Monday night, though that's about where the similarities end in terms of quality. Despite a 3-6-1 record, the Eagles could leapfrog the 4-7 Football Team and Giants for first place in the NFC East, while the 7-3 Seahawks are only a tiebreak behind the Rams in the NFC West, which is why they are 6.5-point road favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook.

There are likely to be more Seahawks stacks than those overloading on the Eagles, but strange things can happen on Monday night, so we can't rule out a Philly Special helping contrarian players hit pay dirt.

QUARTERBACKS

The quarterback matchup in this game is similar to Sunday night in that we have one of the game's best players against someone who...isn't. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson ($12,600 DK, $16,500 FD) comes in as the league-leader in touchdown passes (30), and his 2,986 passing yards trail only Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, which is likely enough for fantasy players to ignore that the Eagles have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, including zero passing touchdowns in their last three games. Of course, that run came against Ben DiNucci, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield, who aren't remotely close to Wilson's level. Wilson is coming off his two worst fantasy performances of the season, but he's still going to be extremely popular in this game because of how much he's done this season.

The Eagles have actually complicated things significantly with their quarterback situation, as Carson Wentz ($10,400 DK, $14,500 FD) has been so bad that Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DK, $6,500 FD) is expected to get some playing time Monday night even though he's not the starter. There may have been some optimism for Wentz against a defense that has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than all but one team, which is helped by the fact that all but two of the signal callers they've faced have thrown for more than 300 yards, and eight of 10 have accounted for multiple touchdowns. However, a quarterback committee is a nightmare for fantasy players who make one or few lineups, though even those who make up to 150 won't necessarily be able to land on the right combinations since we have three quarterbacks to consider. Hurts' price on FanDuel certainly makes it easier to consider, as he's the 24th-most expensive player there versus the seventh-most on DraftKings.

Wentz has thrown a league-high 14 interceptions and fumbled a league-high 10 times this season, and no player has been sacked more times (40, though coincidentally, Wilson is second at 33). It's certainly a recipe for less playing time but apparently not enough to lose the job completely. Staying away from both seems like the correct path in cash games and small single-entry tournaments, with those who fully embrace chaos likely choosing Hurts because of the lower salary and unknown expectations.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The plus for Wentz and/or Hurts is that they'll have most of their pass catchers available, and the Seahawks have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the league, including the most receptions and receiving yards plus the fourth-most receiving touchdowns. They've been significantly better against tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points, though all three touchdowns they allowed this season have come in the past four games.

The difficulty for fantasy players is that Wentz spreads out his targets fairly evenly, as Travis Fulgham ($6,800 DK, $9,000 FD), Dallas Goedert ($6,400 DK, $10,000 FD) and Jalen Reagor ($5,800 DK, $9,500 FD) each had 12 targets in the past two games, a span that saw Greg Ward and running back Miles Sanders ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) each get 10. Keying on one or two might be the right move because you don't necessarily get locked into Wentz or Hurts, but deciding where to go is obviously the key. Fulgham leads the team in targets for the season, slightly ahead of Ward despite playing three fewer games, but Reagor has shown he can do some damage with limited touches, as his 15.0 aDOT is the second-highest on the team among active players, trailing only John Hightower ($200 DK, $5,500 FD), who has a 23.6 aDOT but hasn't been targeted since Week 7. Limited touches is important, as Reagor hasn't had more than four receptions in a game this season, while Fulgham had a run of four games with at least five. Of course, he caught one pass in each of the past two despite 12 total targets, while Ward had eight catches on 10 targets for 48 yards in that span. Can you see why a quarterback change is coming?

Goedert might be the one many go to because he's coming off a solid game against Cleveland when he caught five of six targets for 77 yards and a touchdown, reminding us about his Week 1 game against Football Team when he caught eight of nine targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. The move to Hurts could be a negative because Wentz clearly likes him, but that's a chance fantasy players are likely to take. At the very least, he's likely a bigger option than backup Richard Rodgers ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD), who scored a touchdown the week before, and he certainly looks good catching six of seven targets for 108 yards and that score in the past two weeks.

Joining the circus is Alshon Jeffery, who hasn't caught any of the three passes thrown to him in the last two games (his first two of the season). Jeffery was supposed to be eased back in after a lengthy injury absence, but after playing 18 snaps in Week 10 he only played five last week, making him much more of a flier than the other wideouts on the depth chart. Rounding out the group could be Quez Watkins ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) if he's active, though he doesn't profile as much of anything even if he's in uniform.

The Seahawks side is much easier to parse through, as DK Metcalf ($11,400 DK $14,000 FD) and Tyler Lockett ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD) have accounted for 165 of the 211 passes thrown to wide receivers this season, and it's possible one or both of David Moore ($4,600, $8,000 FD) and Freddie Swain ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) are held out Monday. Both players are officially questionable, with Moore seemingly more likely to sit, which would presumably open up more snaps and routes for Swain, who has three catches on seven targets in the past five games. It's not a lot of production, but a minimum price sure is nice if he can get two or three grabs.

Wide receivers are obviously not the only potential pass catchers, as Wilson has also thrown 71 passes to his tight ends, though top option Greg Olsen is out with a foot injury, leaving Jacob Hollister ($1,400 DK, $7,000 FD) and Will Dissly ($3,600 DK, $6,000 FD) to pick up the slack. Neither player is likely to do much in terms of volume, but they're always options near the end zone.

Metcalf and Lockett will surely be popular, even against an Eagles defense that's allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, a rank that is actually a bit lower than expected because they've allowed three rushing touchdowns to the position. Metcalf had back-to-back games with at least 100 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 8 and 9, but he's only been targeted nine times in the past two weeks, a total that Lockett has seen in each of those games. There is probably some talk that Metcalf might be shadowed by Darius Slay, especially after he was mostly shut down by the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson) and Rams (Jalen Ramsey and Co.), but there's still plenty to like about his upside. Slay could push people toward Lockett, but both are expected to be popular plays, including as captain/MVP.

RUNNING BACKS

The running back situation is pretty clear for both teams, which is helpful since the wide receivers offer so many options. Sanders and Chris Carson ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD) should get a bulk of the backfield work, with Carson returning from a four-game injury absence to push Carlos Hyde ($7,000 DK, $11,000 FD) back down the depth chart. Hyde is expected to get any work left over from Carson, not as part of a committee, a situation that also basically throws DeeJay Dallas ($800 DK, $7,500 FD) out of the reasonable player pool for those who make a limited number of lineups.

The matchup isn't the easiest, as the Eagles have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, which is buoyed by their 3.43 yards per carry allowed, which is the third-best in the league. The also haven't allowed a single running back receiving touchdown, so Carson will have his work cut out for him. Add in that the Seahawks clearly like to rely on Wilson's arm, and Carson becomes more of a differential, or at least as much as a running back on a 6.5-point favorite can be one.

Sanders presents as a very interesting option against a defense that's allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including the sixth-most rushing touchdowns. His work in the passing game could also be utilized, as the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most running back receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to the position. The quarterback issue causes some trepidation because we have no idea if head coach Doug Pederson is going to let Hurts throw as much as possible when he's in or maintain a fairly conservative game-plan, which would presumably include handing off to Sanders. It's not ideal, but Sanders still figures to get significantly more work than Boston Scott ($1,000 DK, $8,000 FD) and Corey Clement ($200 DK, $6,000 FD). Scott was a useful fantasy option when Sanders was injured, but it doesn't seem like he'll get enough touches to justify inclusion in most fantasy lineups.

Given he's such a big underdog, it seems unlikely that Sanders would be a popular captain/MVP despite being the most consistent offensive player on the roster, and Carson profiles more as a differential because of how much focus there is on the Seahawks' passing game. Both could have big games, so they should be in consideration for the multiplier spots even if they are likely to be more useful there in tournaments than cash games.

KICKERS

Given the big question marks with the Philadelphia offense, it makes some sense for kicker Jake Elliott ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) to be in the potential player pool for optimal lineups. As always, it's more of a cash-game maneuver, though Elliott's floor hasn't been great recently anyway, with one or zero made field goals in seven straight games. Jason Myers ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) has really been the consistent player at the position, reaching at least 8.0 fantasy points in five straight games thanks to a number of field-goal and extra-point attempts.  Based on where they are salary-wise, you're considering the kickers against guys like Moore, Ward and Dissly on DraftKings, plus Fulgham and and Scott on FanDuel, which gives you a pretty good idea of the kind of floors they're up again, plus the respective ceilings. 

Guys like Moore, Ward and Fulgham can outscore kickers on a single play, but their floors are probably lower than Myers', so that's the consideration you have to make. Then again, you could also avoid the salary range completely and not have to worry about it.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both defenses have been decent, and you could even make an argument that from a floor perspective they are in the range as the kickers except they're cheaper. The Seahawks ($3,800 DK) presumably have the benefit of facing the turnover-and-sack-prone Wentz, though the addition of Hurts makes it a little less stable. Then again, he's a rookie quarterback playing sporadic snaps, so who knows. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles ($2,800 DK) are facing a quarterback who has taken the second-most sacks in the league and has turned the ball over 10 times in the last five games. Neither defense is likely to be popular, especially as captain/MVP, but the variance of the position surely should make some people consider it.