Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Patriots vs. Jets

Monday night's Patriots vs. Jets game is similar to many of their previous divisional battles, with New England 9.5-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams this season, while the Jets come in fresh off their first win after beating the Cowboys just last weekend. The absence of Sam Darnold for much of their winless run didn't help, but the offense looked considerably better with him back under center against Dallas. However, the Patriots' defense will be better than anything the Jets have faced, and there are likely to be plenty of Pats stacks in fantasy lineups.

QUARTERBACKS

As a Jets fan, you could tell me that Tom Brady ($11,600 DK, $15,500 FD) has thrown for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in every start in his career against the Jets and I'd believe you. I'm pretty sure he hasn't, but it hasn't stopped him from being the most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday night. He comes in with at least 300 passing yards in three of the past four games, with multiple touchdowns in each of those 300-games, including two rushing touchdowns last week. Brady's ability to spread around his passes makes it tough to rely on a single receiver consistently, but that's also why he's likely to be the highest-owned player Monday, and the most popular captain/MVP while facing a defense that's allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on DraftKings and 14th-fewest on FanDuel. Those numbers might be even better if not for what Brady has already done to them, throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 3, a 30-14 Patriots win in Foxboro.

Meanwhile, Sam Darnold ($9,000 DK, $14,500 FD) threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns last weekend against the Cowboys, finally giving the Jets' offense some hope after extreme struggles with Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk under center while Darnold was out with mononucleosis. The difficulty with Darnold is that he's facing the no. 1 defense in the league, with the Patriots allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the second-fewest to running backs. He will surely be a differential pick because it's tough to build a reasonable lineup with Brady and Darnold, but if you subscribe to the thought that the Jets will be playing catch-up for a lot of the game, then Darnold's volume could be high enough to justify him.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

This is obviously only a DraftKings consideration, but we can't really go any further without discussing the Patriots' ($7,200 DK) defense that has been so dominant that only seven active players cost more on Monday's slate. They've scored at least 10.0 points in every game this season, including three games with at least 25.0 because of five total touchdowns. Generally we don't see defenses with fantasy upsides of position players, but we've had that with the Patriots this season thanks to this murderer's row of quarterbacks they've faced: Ben Roethlisberger (injured), Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy and Daniel Jones. The expectation is that Darnold will be better than those guys, so the upside may not be there, but as a defense that leads the league in interceptions (14) and fewest points allowed while sitting second in sacks, the floor is high.

The Patriots' three defensive touchdowns (the others were special teams) are tied for the league-lead with the Jets ($2,800), who shockingly got two of those scores against the Patriots in Week 3 when they scored 16.0 fantasy points despite giving up 30 real-life points. It's tough to expect any kind of repeat performance, especially since they scored a combined 10.0 in their last three non-Patriots games, so their significant price break is justified, and the only reason to consider them Monday is for lower ownership.

RUNNING BACKS

Sony Michel ($7,800 DK, $13,500 FD) continues to lead the Patriots' backfield in carries, rushing 100 times for 348 yards and three touchdowns. His 100 carries are the ninth-most in the NFL, though 16 players have rushed for more yards and 13 have scored more rushing touchdowns. His 3.5 yards per carry and 58.0 rushing yards per game haven't done anything to limit his touches, though he has been a bit better recently, rushing 38 times for 177 yards and one touchdown in the past two games. Meanwhile, the Jets' run defense hasn't been great, giving up at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in four straight games, though last week was the first time they gave up more than 90 yards. Michel has actually gotten more involved in the passing game over the past two, catching five of six targets for 60 yards, a considerable jump after he had zero catches on one target in the first four games.

The real pass catcher from the Patriots' backfield is James White ($7,400 DK, $10,000 FD), who is second on the team in targets (39) and receptions (31), and his 224 receiving yards, 16 rushing attempts and 62 rushing yards are the second-most among active Patriots on Monday. With Rex Burkhead and Josh Gordon already ruled out, there's little question that there will be opportunities for White. In fact, his use in the passing game makes it entirely reasonable to play multiple Patriots running backs, a strategy that is usually sub-optimal.

Of course, this is the Patriots, who also have Brandon Bolden ($3,200 DK, $8,000 FD), who has scored one touchdown in each of the past two games despite only garnering eight carries and three targets on 23 combined snaps. If anything, Bolden is likely to take more away from Michel than White, but again, he's getting such limited opportunities that he's more suited for GPPs than cash games.

The Jets' running back situation is significantly easier, with Le'Veon Bell ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD) accounting for 85 of the team's 104 rushing attempts and 256 of their 320 rushing yards. Additionally, he co-leads the team with 28 receptions, and he's second with 33 targets. Given the workload, it's unsurprising he's more expensive than Darnold on DraftKings, even without the desired efficiency on his touches. Backup running backs Ty Montgomery ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD) and Bilal Powell ($200, DK, $5,000 FD) are significant cheaper, but they've earned those prices, particularly compared to Bell. Darnold will garner some ownership simply because he's a quarterback, but Bell has a strong case for being the highest-owned Jet, and making him captain/MVP makes sense if you think the Jets can hang with the Patriots specifically because of what Bell can do.

PASS CATCHERS

The Patriots will be without Gordon on Monday, which only helps Julian Edelman ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD), who leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and air yards, and he comes in with back-to-back games of at least 110 yards on 24 targets. He wasn't overly impressive in the first matchup of the two teams but still managed seven catches on 10 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. His 8.7 aDOT tells the story that he's not a downfield threat, but he continues to do a great job of getting open and being a security blanket for Brady. His floor is more attractive than his ceiling because he doesn't score many touchdowns, which could make him a fairly unpopular captain/MVP choice in GPPs, even with a decent matchup.

Meanwhile, Phillip Dorsett ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD) is optimistic he'll play Monday despite dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out last week. Dorsett leads the team with three receiving touchdowns, though two came back in Week 1, and he's caught more than five passes just once this season. He's used more as a downfield threat, as his 13.2 aDOT leads the team, and his 304 air yards are only 56 behind Gordon, who has been targeted 13 more times. Even if Dorsett is able to play, Jakobi Meyers ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD) might be higher owned because he's cheaper and is coming off a solid game when he had four catches on four targets for 54 yards on a season-high 57 snaps. Meyers' 10.6 aDOT pretty much splits the middle between Dorsett and Edelman, but with the way that Brady can spread around his passes, both players should at least get consideration.

The Patriots tight end situation is a bit cloudy because Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse are both out, leaving Ben Watson ($4,400 DK) as their likely starter. Unfortunately for those on FanDuel, Watson is not in the player pool after being suspended for the first four games of the season and then cut and re-signed, but DraftKings players should be able to take advantage of a player with a decent history having balls thrown his way from Brady, and the price is low enough to warrant the risk. Former Jet Eric Tomlinson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is also on the roster, but he's always been used more as a blocker than a pass-catcher.

The Jets' receiver situation is also a bit easier than the Patriots, with Jamison Crowder ($7,000 DK, $11,000 FD) the clear favorite option, as he has a team-high 40 targets, leading to a team-high 272 receiving yards and co-team-high 28 receptions. His 6.6 aDOT is fully representative of the types of looks he gets, and if you're looking for more upside, Robby Anderson ($6,800 DK, $11,500 FD) is the guy for that, as his 406 air yards lead the team by a significant margin, leading to 16 receptions on 29 targets for 256 yards. Then again, nearly half of that came last week against the Cowboys when he caught five of eight targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. Granted, one of those targets turned into a 92-yard touchdown, but it was a perfect example of the upside Anderson can have. Unfortunately, he's facing a Patriots defense that has been exceptional against the pass, and is a unit that makes very few mistakes that can lead to big plays. Otherwise, former Patriot Demaryius Thomas ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD) is questionable with a hamstring injury, though even if he does play it's tough to see him getting enough targets to make a significant impact. The same applies to guys like tight end Ryan Griffin ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD), who scored a touchdown last week after getting just three targets in the previous three games combined, Josh Bellamy ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Braxton Berrios ($600 DK, $5,00 FD), another former Patriot.

Interest in the Jets receivers really comes down to Crowder and Anderson, with the former more suited for cash games and the latter tournaments because of their respective floors and ceilings. Captaining either one seems like a strategy for those with multiple lineups, as you're ultimately relying on Darnold to consistently beat the best defense in football or at least hoping for a mistake or two.

KICKERS

Jets kickers have hardly been reliable fantasy options this season, and it's tough to get overly excited about Sam Ficken ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) on Monday given that he has yet to attempt multiple field goals this season, and he didn't even get a PAT attempt in two of his four starts. Granted, most of that time was without Darnold, and he did go 3-for-3 on PATs last week, so there is theoretically a case to be made that the Jets' offense won't be as successful against the Patriots and rely more on field goals than getting into the end zone. Then again, the Jets aren't expected to score that many points anyway. 

On the other side, Mike Nugent ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) missed his lone field-goal attempt last week but still went 5-for-5 on PATs, a week after missing one of those while going 2-for-2 on his field-goal tries. He probably has a decent floor for his price, but the upside is limited since the Patriots are expected to score touchdowns against the Jets' weaker defense.