Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Cruz's season lasted all of nine games before he fractured his ankle on a contact play April 9 against the Chicago White Sox. He attempted to come back before the end of the season, but the soreness in his ankle never quite went away and the team decided to shut him down and get him healthy for 2024. It is best if we just wash 2023 away and look back at 2022 where we saw him strike out at a high volume, yet his O-Swing percentage as well as his overall contact percentage improved as the season went on. Cruz should have the double blessing of hitting in the middle of the Pittsburgh lineup as well as the permission to play every day that his ankle permits him on the field. We may not see the same speed we saw from him right away, but the power should be there as he is reacclimated himself to the grind of daily games at the big league level. This is more of a rust/reward issue than a risk/reward one. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#57
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Pirates in March of 2024.
Sitting versus southpaw
OFPittsburgh Pirates
September 27, 2024
Cruz is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
The left-handed-hitting Cruz will be given a day off as the Yankees send southpaw Carlos Rodon to the bump. Billy Cook is in center field and batting ninth for the Pirates in the series opener.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
11
5
69
14
4
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
6
5
6
8
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+26%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+17%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+107%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+57%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .639 272 27 9 33 6 .205 .261 .378
Since 2022vs Right .808 728 97 30 101 30 .266 .335 .473
2024vs Left .686 154 18 6 21 5 .224 .266 .420
2024vs Right .804 445 54 15 55 17 .271 .344 .460
2023vs Left 1.314 7 0 0 1 0 .600 .714 .600
2023vs Right .636 33 7 1 3 3 .185 .303 .333
2022vs Left .532 111 9 3 11 1 .158 .225 .307
2022vs Right .837 250 36 14 43 10 .265 .324 .513
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+26%
OPS at Home
2024
 
 
+34%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+12%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .848 502 72 21 81 23 .286 .347 .501
Since 2022Away .675 498 52 18 53 13 .212 .283 .392
2024Home .883 308 42 12 48 15 .298 .367 .516
2024Away .658 291 30 9 28 7 .218 .278 .380
2023Home .684 13 4 0 1 2 .222 .462 .222
2023Away .768 27 3 1 3 1 .261 .333 .435
2022Home .795 181 26 9 32 6 .269 .304 .491
2022Away .690 180 19 8 22 5 .194 .283 .406
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Stat Review
How does Oneil Cruz compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.28
 
BB Rate
8.5%
 
K Rate
30.2%
 
BABIP
.347
 
ISO
.190
 
AVG
.259
 
OBP
.324
 
SLG
.449
 
OPS
.773
 
wOBA
.335
 
Exit Velocity
95.5 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
41.8%
 
Barrels/PA
9.5%
 
Expected BA
.266
 
Expected SLG
.472
 
Sprint Speed
22.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
47.8%
 
Line Drive %
18.4%
 
Fly Ball %
33.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Cruz is a walking highlight reel. He is a physical specimen at 6-foot-7, 210 pounds and packs some of the loudest tools you're ever likely to see on a baseball field. In late August, Cruz hit a batted ball at 122.4 mph, setting a new record for the Statcast era. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile last season. As expected, there were some swing-and-miss issues (34.9 K%), though he shaved the strikeouts down over the season's final month and really took off (.288/.359/.525). The upside is obvious with the former top prospect, but it's important to remember that he's still just 24 years old and will be playing for a Pirates team without much around him in one of the game's worst ballparks for offense.
Rarely has a 38 plate-appearance sample shifted the perceived value of a player to the extent we've seen with Cruz. He had a very strong run at Double-A last season, hitting .292/.346/.536 with 12 home runs, 18 steals, a 23.4 K% and 7.3 BB% in 62 games. Cruz was then rewarded with a six-game run at Triple-A followed by two games in the majors. He hit .466 with six home runs, nine strikeouts and eight walks in those eight games and propelled himself into the top 300 of early NFBC ADP in the process. His most bankable fantasy-relevant tool is 70-grade raw power that he utilizes to all fields. Cruz's lanky 6-foot-7 frame enables him to leverage the ball in a manner matched by few sluggers in the history of the game. His long levers will always lead to plenty of strikeouts, but he is not stiff at the plate and he has the flexibility to golf out balls below his knees for home runs. Cruz's physical dimensions make it impossible to confidently project his hit tool, and the massive gap in pitching quality at Triple-A and the majors can't be overstated. While his run at Triple-A and the majors can't be thrown out completely, his Double-A performance is a more relevant data point. Pittsburgh figures to give him the keys at shortstop early this season and while his plus-plus raw power and plus speed give him a very high power/speed ceiling, his batting average as a rookie could be anywhere from the .181 Jarred Kelenic logged to something above .250.
After spending the summer at the alternate training site, Cruz was arrested in the Dominican Republic after a car he was driving struck a motorcycle in an accident with three fatalities. This is a delicate subject, and Cruz, who was out past the country's COVID-19 curfew, is at best guilty of poor decision making. He went on to play winter ball and the team has said he should be a full participant in spring training. For those who weigh maximum exit velocity strongly, Cruz's offensive ceiling is up there with any prospect. However, at 6-foot-7, there will be holes in his swing for MLB pitchers to exploit. He has played shortstop so far, but right field seems like the best long-term fit. Cruz is also a plus runner, but his speed figures to trend down in the coming years. For a player who should spend most of his age-22 season at Triple-A, there is still a huge gap between Cruz's floor and ceiling.
Likely the tallest Double-A shortstop ever, the 6-foot-7 Cruz should be commended for not having to move off the position yet, but that still feels like an inevitability. His bat will profile anywhere if he reaches his ceiling. Unsurprisingly, given his size, he could develop 70-grade power. The big question is whether he will make enough contact against MLB pitchers to get to that power with any consistency. Since 1980, only six hitters 6-foot-6 or taller have had sustained success, so betting against Cruz has its merits. He had a 28.5 K% in 84 games at High-A, Double-A and the Arizona Fall League (he missed two months with a broken foot) but didn't turn 21 until October. Cruz is an excellent athlete and could steal 10-15 bases early in his career. We probably won't know for a couple years if his hit tool will play in the majors, but he could have an Aaron Judge-esque offensive profile if it all clicks.
While Cruz may eventually change positions, the fact remains he was a full-time shortstop in a repeat of Low-A, despite standing 6-foot-6 (roughly 180 pounds). There is no precedent for a player his size sticking up the middle, so let's assume he will move to a corner -- his 80-grade arm would fit nicely at third base or in right field. Despite repeating the level, Cruz was one of the youngest players in the Sally League, where his 134 wRC+ ranked sixth and his .201 ISO ranked 10th. His 22.6 K% was impressive, and his 50-grade speed led to 11 steals on 16 attempts. Of players who debuted in 1980 or later, Richie Sexson, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Corey Hart, Adam Dunn and Darryl Strawberry are the only position players 6-foot-6 or taller who have had prolonged success. Cruz has the same carrying tool (huge raw power) as those players and could join that group if he makes enough contact, but it's important to note how rare it would be.
More Fantasy News
Tallies 20th homer
OFPittsburgh Pirates
September 21, 2024
Cruz went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs scored Friday against the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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Back in Pittsburgh lineup
OFPittsburgh Pirates
September 19, 2024
Cruz (ankle) will start in center field and bat third in Thursday's game versus the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Out again Wednesday
OFPittsburgh Pirates
Ankle
September 18, 2024
Cruz (ankle) isn't in Pittsburgh's lineup Wednesday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Remains out of Pittsburgh lineup
OFPittsburgh Pirates
Ankle
September 17, 2024
Cruz (ankle) remains out of the lineup for Tuesday's contest in St. Louis.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting out with ankle injury
OFPittsburgh Pirates
Ankle
September 16, 2024
Cruz (ankle) is not in the lineup for Monday's contest in St. Louis, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not moving off shortstop
OFPittsburgh Pirates
August 21, 2024
Cruz has committed 12 errors in 27 games since the All-Star break, but Pirates GM Ben Cherington said Sunday there hasn't been any conversations about potentially moving the 25-year-old off the position, per Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com.
ANALYSIS
Errors certainly don't tell the full story, but Cruz's 24 errors this season are second most in the majors, and his struggles have ramped up in the second half. He's been worth minus-nine DRS and minus-four OAA this season, though he's been productive at the plate with 18 homers, 14 steals and a .789 OPS through 112 games.
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