This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
We've come to the close of the fantasy regular season for most leagues, and hopefully plenty of RotoWire subs have made the playoffs. For now, we can turn our attention back to DFS and the Monday night matchup between the Patriots and Cardinals. Depending on the sportsbook, the Patriots are road favorites by between 1.5 and two points. The total is a fairly strong consensus at 43.5, meaning the Patriots have an implied total of 22.75 and the Cardinals 20.75.
Quarterback
Quarterback is typically the most straightforward analysis. That doesn't mean it's always the most predictable, but at this point in the season it's a routine exercise to dig into patterns, matchups and other factors. The situation for Kyler Murray ($11,200 DK, $17,000 FD) is somewhat different. First, he has had his top receivers of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown for one game. That came in Week 12, when he matched his season-high output. The matchup is tough against a New England defense that ranks third in pass defense DVOA. While it also allows a below-average number of fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, it's worth noting that New England has allowed spike performances to Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and to a lesser extent Kirk Cousins this season. Cousins is a non-factor on the ground, but Jackson put 107 rushing yards and Fields 82. Murray has generally been less aggressive as a rusher this season, but he has topped 50 yards on the ground in three of his last five games. Those are numbers that could go overlooked for those who simply look at the matchup or presume that Murray hasn't started running just because he began the season with a lack of aggressiveness in that area. The final factor is pricing. Murray's price is typical for a good quarterback on a showdown slate on DK. However, on FD, Murray is $17,000 — $2,500 more than the next closest player. On that site, it's possible Brown or Hopkins gets there without Murray delivering on his price point. We're getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but if I'm playing Murray on FD, I'm finding a way to stack him with both Brown and Hopkins.
Arizona is among the worst pass defenses in the league as measured by fantasy points allowed and DVOA. However, New England has the 24th-ranked pass offense DVOA and Mac Jones ($9,600 DK, $13,500 FD) has topped 20 DK points twice and 20 FD points once. It is worth noting that Jones' best week came against the Vikings, a comparable team in terms of defensive strength and potential game script. That makes Jones a worthwhile consideration in tournaments, but not someone I'm turning to in cash games.
Running Back
Both of these backfields have condensed, which makes them attractive for fantasy purposes. When Damien Harris is out — he's doubtful for Monday — Rhamondre Stevenson ($8,800 DK, $14,000 FD) has great usage. That's particularly true as a pass catcher, as he has at least six targets in each of his last six games. On DK, the value is apparent, as he's had at least 13.8 DK points in every game in that span and has topped 20 DK points on three occasions. The Cardinals are fairly forgiving to running backs, though they have tightened up a bit lately. Austin Ekeler was limited to 19.5 fantasy points in Week 12 and Christian McCaffrey to 14.1 in Week 11. Despite that, Stevenson is a strong play.
James Conner ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) has topped 20 touches in two of his last three games. Given his injury history, that type of usage may end poorly for him, but for now, he has an exceptionally secure role. The Patriots have allowed only 14.1 half PPR and 16.8 full PPR points per game to backfields.
I'd let price and scoring dictate my preference between Conner and Stevenson, with the former being my preference on FD and the latter on DK.
There's not much reason to look beyond this duo at running back. Keaontay Ingram ($2,600 DK, $7,000 FD) is the backup in Arizona but has had a total of nine rushes in his last five games without being targeted. The only possible projectable reason to roster Ingram is expecting a Conner injury early in the game. Even if Damien Harris ($7,400 DK, $11,000 FD) is surprisingly active, he's remained priced up and is unplayable. Neither Pierre Strong ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) nor Kevin Harris ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is a factor on offense.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
In Arizona, things are fairly straightforward in terms of who will be involved. Level of involvement is less clear, given that the unit has had its top two options only once this season. DeAndre Hopkins ($11,600 DK, $14,500 FD) is the most expensive player on DK and priced lower than only Murray on FD. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown ($7,600 DK, $13,000 FD) is priced below both RBs and QBs as well as Hopkins on DK. On FD, Conner is cheaper. It's the caveat of a one-game sample, but in Week 12, Brown saw eight targets — while supposedly on a limited snap count — as opposed to Hopkins' six. Meanwhile, Hopkins provided the touchdown and big plays. If that continues, I like Hopkins on FD and Brown on DK. I'd be willing to play Hopkins on DK, but less enthused about playing Brown on FD due to his relative lack of touchdowns and big plays. The public likely views Hopkins as the alpha in terms of targets, so it's a potential leverage spot, but — one more time — with the small sample caveat. Greg Dortch ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) is our first obvious value of the slate. Without Rondale Moore, who won't play Monday, Dortch has averaged 15.3 PPR points per game and 11.93 half PPR points per game this season. Dial that back a bit with the expectation of Hopkins and Brown dominating targets, and there's still plenty of potential value in Dortch. Trey McBride ($2,400 DK, $5,500 FD) has played 79 percent of offensive snaps since Zach Ertz has been out, but he has just eight targets in the span. On FD, you could punt and hope he lucks into an end-zone target. On DK, simply play Dortch given their prices. To continue the theme, New England is a tough matchup. However, volume should be condensed enough that I'd be willing to bet that the talented Cardinals pass catchers can overcome that.
To be perfectly honest, it's difficult to gauge New England's pass catchers without Jakobi Meyers in the mix. DeVante Parker ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD) has been on the field the most and the most-targeted wide receiver besides Meyers. If we believe that usage will continue, he's a nice value for a WR1, even in a poor passing offense. Despite his reputation, Nelson Agholor ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) is another name I'd be interested in. He's lagged in snaps as compared to Parker, but Agholor has a better target per route run rate (20.3 to 17.4 percent) and comparable yards per route run (1.9 to 2.0). In theory, Agholor will see an increase in routes run with Meyers out, thus closing the gap to Parker. Considering price — Agholor is the most expensive Patriots wide receiver on FD — there's not a huge edge there. The same analysis holds true for Hunter Henry ($5,600 DK$7,500 FD), though he's both less involved and less efficient than Agholor as measured by targets per route run and yards per route run. The potential value seems to come in two spots. The first is Tyquan Thornton ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD). He's run only 113 routes this season and has been inefficient (1.04 YPRR) but could get more designed looks. The other is Jonnu Smith ($3,000 DK, $6,000 FD), who has seen a team-leading 29 percent target per rout run rate. The problem is that he's run only 100 routes this season, but perhaps New England will change its approach with a shorthanded receiving corps. Kendrick Bourne ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD) is overpriced on DK, but could be a punt option on FD. Overall, Parker appears to be the safest choice, followed by Agholor and Henry. However, if any Patriot receiver is projected to be chalk, I'd be willing to fade him without a second thought in tournaments. Finally, for those who think New England can take advantage of a positive matchup, there could be a lot of value with volume up for grabs in the absence of Meyers. In cash games, I'd avoid all pass catchers and simply find a way to play Stevenson.
Kicker
Nick Folk ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) is the more expensive kicker on both sites, likely because the Patriots are favored. He's been shaky this season, particularly from distance. On kicks from 40 yards or more, he's made just 10 of 15 attempts. If New England wins, I wouldn't expect it to be on the strength of the offense, so I'm not overly excited by the idea of playing Folk. There are better cheap options from both teams in my opinion.
Matt Prater ($4,000 DK, $8,000 FD) hasn't made multiple field goals in three consecutive games. He's been accurate when called upon, but he has yet to attempt a kick of more than 50 yards. It's unclear whether that's a coincidence or a strategy by the Arizona coaching staff, but if the latter it obviously caps Prater's ceiling. Either way, I also don't have a particular lean to play Prater.
Defense
The numbers suggest that New England ($4,400 DK, $9,500 FD) is the better defense. They do boast a 9.0 percent sack, third highest in the league entering Week 14. However, they've been beatable when facing quality quarterbacks. Against Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen they failed to record more than four DK points. With the exception of Fields, the same is true on FD.
It's not wise to bet against sportsbooks, but for those who believe Arizona has a better chance to control the game (I fall into his category), the Arizona ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) defense is in play. That's particularly true on DK. Mac Jones has a 2.6 percent interception rate, which falls in line with the likes of Carson Wentz and Kenny Pickett. He also has a well above-average 8.5 percent sack rate. In other words, if New England is forced to pass, there will be opportunity for fantasy points from the Cardinals' defense.
