This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Catastrophic injuries on offense aside, the 4-0 Chiefs are where they want to be going into Week 5 – undefeated and playing at home. The 2-2 visiting Saints looked intimidating in the first two weeks, but after losing two in a row they are less than blessed to have to head to Arrowhead on Monday. The thin New Orleans offensive line has had its non-existent depth tested, down to the backup center and third-string right guard. The Saints will hope their often-good defense can show up in this road environment, especially since Patrick Mahomes has had three of his top weapons (Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco) deleted by injury. The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points, with the over/under set at 43.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($11000 DK, $16000 FD) is never to be doubted, but a strong game in this setting would be one of his more impressive recent accomplishments. Mahomes' numbers have been down the last two years – a trend that correlates to the Chiefs extremely coincidentally having dubious and/or injured pass-catching personnel. If Rice and Brown were healthy then the trend would seemingly break, but in the meantime Mahomes just has to work against the odds. The good news is that the Saints offense might struggle with its offensive line issues, and short fields boost the odds of touchdowns.
Derek Carr ($9600 DK, $14500 FD) is often to be doubted, though he did have his moments in the first two weeks this year.
Catastrophic injuries on offense aside, the 4-0 Chiefs are where they want to be going into Week 5 – undefeated and playing at home. The 2-2 visiting Saints looked intimidating in the first two weeks, but after losing two in a row they are less than blessed to have to head to Arrowhead on Monday. The thin New Orleans offensive line has had its non-existent depth tested, down to the backup center and third-string right guard. The Saints will hope their often-good defense can show up in this road environment, especially since Patrick Mahomes has had three of his top weapons (Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco) deleted by injury. The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points, with the over/under set at 43.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($11000 DK, $16000 FD) is never to be doubted, but a strong game in this setting would be one of his more impressive recent accomplishments. Mahomes' numbers have been down the last two years – a trend that correlates to the Chiefs extremely coincidentally having dubious and/or injured pass-catching personnel. If Rice and Brown were healthy then the trend would seemingly break, but in the meantime Mahomes just has to work against the odds. The good news is that the Saints offense might struggle with its offensive line issues, and short fields boost the odds of touchdowns.
Derek Carr ($9600 DK, $14500 FD) is often to be doubted, though he did have his moments in the first two weeks this year. The Saints wideout duo of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed is dangerous, but the Saints don't have much firepower otherwise and Carr is one of the more easily rattled starting quarterbacks. If Chris Jones tosses aside that third-string right guard (would it matter if it were the first?) then Carr is liable to flinch. If Carr can put together a gutsy showing here it would be impressive, but he averages 6.3 yards per pass against the Chiefs in his career.
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara ($11400, $17000 FD) will need to do a lot of lifting if the Saints are to be competitive in this game. In addition to the offensive line injuries what's working against Kamara here is the fact that the Chiefs run defense has been highly effective through four games, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs (73 carries) while deterring running back targets (17 in four games). The Saints are utterly dependent on Kamara so his usage should be forced if necessary, and he is a very good player capable of capitalizing if the Saints offensive line exceeds expectations. Even if the situation looks somewhat dire, Kamara is a very tough fade on a single-game slate. Jamaal Williams ($3200 DK, $7500 FD) is next up at running back, but to this point he and RB3 Jordan Mims ($200 DK, $5000 FD) have mostly played during blowout victories, which this game probably will not be for the Saints.
Kareem Hunt ($7400 DK, $12000 FD) is in an interesting spot with his former team – although he was unwanted in free agency until recently, Hunt may have claimed the RB1 role for Kansas City by running for 69 yards on 14 carries against the Chargers last week. The Saints run defense has been great for years, but they're allowing 5.2 yards per carry to running backs in 2024 (64 carries) and their top two linebackers (DeMario Davis and Pete Werner) are both questionable with injuries. If Hunt disappoints it might have less to do with the tough matchup and more to do with an ongoing rotation with Samaje Perine ($6400 DK, $8000 FD) and Carson Steele ($4400 DK, $8000 FD), especially Perine. In Week 4 Perine operated as the primary passing-down and short-yardage back for the Chiefs, though it's unclear whether the Chiefs will stick to that plan or be willing to adjust with a Hot Hand approach going forward.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce ($8600 DK, $13000 FD) would seemingly need to be busy in this game given the absences of Rice and Brown. Perhaps efficiency won't come easily, but the volume almost needs to be there, and perhaps the Saints' linebacker injuries could turn to Kelce's benefit somehow. Xavier Worthy ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) could see a good target count, but even if not he should see a few big-play shots, which he is uniquely good at converting. The Saints pass defense is quite good, but a wrong step carries a higher cost against Worthy. Justin Watson ($3400 DK, $9500 FD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) have been highly ineffective, but their snap counts could be at a starter level in this game. Noah Gray ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) is always a decent single-slate punt given that he can play upwards of 40 snaps in a given game. Skyy Moore ($1600 DK, $6500 FD) could conceivably poach some snaps from Watson and Smith-Schuster, but the Chiefs keep misusing Moore as a boundary receiver and thus the results have remained poor. TE3 Jared Wiley ($200 DK, $5000 FD) mostly blocks to this point, but he also could see double-digit snaps.
Chris Olave ($10000 DK, $12500 FD) and Rashid Shaheed ($8000 DK, $10000 FD) are both excellent players and either is capable of beating any of the Chiefs' given corners. The problem is that the Chiefs pass rush might go nuts with the Saints interior offensive line a mess with injuries. That, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best, and he regularly gets the Chiefs secondary personnel to overachieve. It's tough to budget room for all of Olave, Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, but those are your three extremely most likely suspects to produce from scrimmage for the Saints. Guys like Cedrick Wilson ($1400 DK, $5500 FD) and Mason Tipton ($1000 DK, $5500 FD) could play upwards of 30 snaps themselves, but the production hasn't been there yet for them or Bub Means. Tight end Juwan Johnson ($2200 DK, $7500 FD) has produced as a receiver in the past, but it's not clear whether there's room for him and Foster Moreau ($1800 DK, $6500 FD) to coexist in the Klint Kubiak offense.
KICKERS
Harrison Butker ($5400 DK, $9000 FD) hasn't had any huge games yet in 2024, but this might be a setting for that to change. The Chiefs are safe favorites and their defense should be consistently effective, yet the offense is not equipped to score touchdowns specifically. Butker might bridge the gap, and he can make that impact from beyond 50 yards, too.
Blake Grupe ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) could make an impact here himself if the Saints can manage field positioning effectively. If the Chiefs offense struggles then the Saints might see some short fields themselves, and it's never shocking when Olave and/or Shaheed make big plays to quickly get the team into field goal range. Grupe has made all eight of his field goal attempts, including two from beyond 50 yards.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either defense could be a factor in the cashing formula Monday, but it's a little more difficult to see the optimistic side for the Saints ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) as the road underdogs. If the Saints run defense is compromised by the injuries to Davis and Werner then the competitive formula becomes more difficult for New Orleans, because in that case it might not matter that the Chiefs pass catchers are patently awful at the moment. If Mahomes has favorable down-and-distances then he can probably make it work. Working with constant second-and-longs would give the Saints a better shot to capitalize. If you pick the Saints you might want to pair them with Rashid Shaheed, who sometimes returns kicks and punts.
The Chiefs ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) have the conventionally better projection, and it certainly helps that the Saints offensive line is in bad shape. Carr has historically been mediocre at best against the Chiefs – it's doubtful that the offensive line injuries and the Arrowhead factor will do anything helpful for Carr. Chris Jones versus those backup interior linemen could be a nightmare. Even a guy like Tershawn Wharton might put a beating on those guards.
