Monday Night DFS Breakdown: Browns vs. 49ers

Monday Night Football greets us with the 49ers hosting the Browns in Santa Clara, with the home team now favored by 5.0 on FanDuel Sportsbook with a total of 47.5. The Niners actually opened as 3.5-point favorites but enough sharp money has moved it all the way up to 5.0 despite more public money on the Browns, a preseason favorite among bettors.

The Browns have been quite up and down this season, getting smoked by 30 at home in the opener by the Titans and then turning around and beating the Sam Darnold-less Jets on Monday Night Football by 20. They followed that up by a touchdown loss to the Rams and then a 15-point win over the Ravens last week, the first solid game from quarterback Baker Mayfield. On the other hand, the 49ers come in as the only undefeated team in the NFC, though they're only 3-0 after having last week off. With so much talk about the NFC West teams this season, from the Cardinals' high-octane offense that's been anything but, Russell Wilson's MVP-level play and the Rams trying to get back to the Super Bowl, the 49ers have quietly taken care of business, beating the Buccaneers by 14, the Bengals by 24 and the Steelers by four, respectively. A solid number of points could definitely be scored Monday, though each team has a number of ways to get the total up, which could become problematic for fantasy players.

QUARTERBACKS

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is the second-most expensive player on FanDuel at $14,500, though he is fourth on DraftKings at $9,600, sitting ahead of 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garappolo ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) on the latter site but behind him on the former. The passing volume continues to be solid for Mayfield, who threw at least 30 passes in all four games, including three with at least 35, but he has just one passing touchdown in each game, and he's turned the ball over six times, all interceptions. He's the kind of player who can blow up at any moment (in a good way), though this week doesn't look overly encouraging against a defense that's allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Mayfield will get some captain/MVP consideration because he's a quarterback in a game with a fairly high total, one in which many people think the Browns could win (or at least lose closely), but it may be better to focus on his pass-catchers.

On the other side, Garappolo has thrown more than 27 passes just once, though he did destroy the Bengals for 296 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. The Browns have allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, though that includes the game against the Jets when they had Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk under center. Otherwise, they've allowed multiple touchdowns to each of Marcus Mariota (really!), Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Sure, it's a tough group, but they also did little to slow them down considerably (other than holding each to fewer than 300 passing yards). Both quarterbacks' target trees aren't overly wide, so like Mayfield, it wouldn't be a bad idea to focus more on the 49ers pass catchers over Garappolo himself. You obviously run the risk of him throwing to the guys you don't have, but if he does end up spreading it around to the lower-owned pass catchers, captaining/MVP Garappolo might make the most sense while making sure you include his pass catchers as flex plays.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

Odell Beckham ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD) is the most expensive player on DraftKings, though he's only the fourth-highest on FanDuel, which makes sense because he's a beneficiary of the former site's full point-per-reception scoring. He was a total dud last week against Baltimore, catching two of seven targets for 20 yards in a game the Browns scored 40 points. Instead of Beckham, Mayfield kept his eyes on Jarvis Landry ($7,200 DK, $12,000 FD), who caught eight of 10 targets for 167 yards. It was the first double-digit target game for Landry this season (Beckham has two), and his first with more than four catches. The huge production moved Landry into first for receiving yards among Browns (328), though he still trails Beckham in targets (37 to 33), receptions (21 to 18), air yards (390 to 330) and aDOT (10.5 to 10.0). Landry has always been more of a short-pass catcher than a big-play producer, a role that Beckham does play, which is why he's always looked to as the upside option. That's no different Monday night, with the only issue being he's significantly more expensive on both sites. Meanwhile, wideout Damion Ratley ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) is mostly an afterthought, topping out at five targets in a game this season, and he still hasn't caught more than three passes or gotten a red-zone target. If there's a positive, it's that his air yards have increased in each game this season, so there's at least some positive momentum going that way, and he even has a slightly higher aDOT (10.3) than Landry.

With tight end David Njoku on injured reserve with a broken wrist, Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,800 DK, $9,000 FD) is now fourth on the team in air yards (56), while his 11.2 aDOT is higher than the top three wide receivers. He's coming off a solid three-catch, 82-yard, one-touchdown game against Baltimore, but it's really tough to see him making a reasonable impact if he doesn't get in the end zone, something he's done five times in his career. Could he score Monday? Of course, but it's likely to make up a majority of his fantasy points if he does. The same applies to fellow tight ends Demetrius Harris ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Pharaoh Brown ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who have combined for three catches on six targets for 24 yards and a touchdown this season, with neither player recording more than one catch in a single game. If you're looking for lower-owned Browns receivers, Rashard Higgins ($2,400 DK, $5,000 FD) is expected to be active after missing the past three games with a knee injury, while Taywan Taylor ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) has been targeted once in three games and doesn't figure to get many looks Monday. Higgins and Taylor shouldn't be overly busy if Antonio Callaway ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD) is a full go after serving a four-game suspension, though the expectation is that Higgins will keep the starting job for at least another week. Callaway was solid last season, catching 43 of 79 targets for 586 yards and five touchdowns with Mayfield, and while he is most likely to get his work on special teams Monday, he has the speed to make an impact on limited offensive touches.

Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD) is the only 49ers wide receiver with more than eight targets this season, catching 11 of 14 for 147 yards (112 air yards) and an 8.0 aDOT, the latter figure the fourth-highest on the team. Tight end George Kittle ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) continues to be the best option in the San Francisco passing game, coming in leading them with 17 catches on 21 targets for 165 yards, though his 111 air yards are the fourth-most, while five players have a higher aDOT than his 5.3. The long air plays aren't really there for Kittle, but his +120 anytime touchdown odds are the best for the 49ers and second-best in the game. Additionally, he's the only 49ers tight end to be targeted this season, so any long shots will have to come from the wide receiver group.

Marquise Goodwin ($6,400 DK, $7,500 FD) leads the team with 122 air yards and a 15.3 aDOT, which sounds great until you see he only has eight targets in three games while catching more than two passes once. He's certainly a big-play option though, so he shouldn't be ignored for those who want a piece of the San Francisco passing attack. Similarly, Richie James ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) comes in trailing only Goodwin with his 116 air yards and 14.5 aDOT, but with only four catches on eight targets for 68 yards, he's left a lot of points on the field. His cheap price makes him an easy part of a 49ers air stack, you just have to hope he actually comes down with one of those longer passes. Kendrick Bourne ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is the last of the group, both in terms of price, production and projection, as he has just one catch in each game, though his 9.3 aDOT is at least higher than Samuel and Kittle. He's certainly the longest shot of the group, but we've seen lesser-known players help people win GPPs.

Oh, and we obviously can't forget about Dante Pettis ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD), who could actually be decently owned for a player with five catches on six targets for 27 yards and a touchdown this season. Pettis was one of the Niners' better receivers last season, but he's fallen off considerably because of two injuries, though neither have kept him from playing. He's theoretically sneaky because he's cheap, which he's earned as the 10th-leading receiver for the 49ers, but we all saw enough last season when he caught 27 of 45 targets for 467 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games that people will think his salary is a bargain.

RUNNING BACKS

The two teams couldn't use their running backs any differently, as the Browns rely heavily on Nick Chubb ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD) while the 49ers have given three different running backs nearly 20 carries each. Chubb, the most expensive player on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings, has gotten 78 of the team's 94 carries this season, rushing for 398 yards and four touchdowns while also being targeted 19 times (the third-most on the team), catching 14 for 99 receiving yards. With how much Mayfield has struggled, the Browns have turned to Chubb as the focal point of the offense, as evidenced by last weekend's huge game against the Ravens when he rushed 20 times for 165 yards and three touchdowns while also catching three of four targets for 18 receiving yards. Fantasy players looking to differentiate by going with Dontrell Hilliard ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD) or D'Ernest Johnson ($400 DK, $7,000 FD) are mostly playing for a Chubb injury because the two players have combined with 52 yards on 11 carries while catching eight of 11 targets for 106 receiving yards. We can't ignore that Hilliard has a rushing touchdown in two of three games this season, including at least one red-zone carry in those games, so while he may be the more reasonable play over Johnson, the upside is limited as long as Chubb is healthy.

The backfield situation is much more fluid with San Francisco, with three players garnering at least 18 carries, with Matt Breida ($6,800 DK, $11,500 FD) leading the way with 41 carries for 226 yards. Following Breida is Raheem Mostert ($5,400 DK, $10,000 FD), who has 202 rushing yards on 34 carries, and he leads the team's running backs with four catches on six targets for 68 receiving yards, totals that aren't that much different from Breida (three catches on five targets for 31 yards). This is a true running-back-by-committee situation, as not only do Breida and Mostert share carries, but we also have Jeff Wilson ($5,200 DK, $8,000 FD), who has rushed 18 times for 52 yards and, more importantly, four touchdowns, including two in each of the last two games (he was inactive Week 1). Breida and Mostert may be getting more touches, but Wilson has dominated the red-zone work, with 13 carries inside the 20, including eight inside the 10 and five inside the five-yard line. In comparison, Mostert has four red-zone carries, including one inside the five, while Breida has one carry inside the 20 but it was outside the 10. And if all of that isn't frustrating enough, Tevin Coleman ($5,600 DK, $8,000 FD) is expected back from his ankle injury, one that has kept him out since the opening game of the season. Coleman garnered fewer carries than both Mostert and Breida in Week 1, though he was the most active in the passing game. If anything, he seems like the furthest from making a big impact Monday, if only because Mostert and Breida figure to continue getting the majority of touches while Wilson has proven he deserves the work near the goal line.

While Chubb could be a popular captain/MVP pick because his role is clear and the matchup isn't overly difficult, focusing on one 49ers running back isn't nearly as easy. Breida has the volume, though Mostert isn't far behind, and Wilson has the goal-line work, which means any of them could have a big game or they could all cannibalize each other. Rostering multiple running backs from the same team isn't usually an optimal strategy in showdown/single game slates, but the 49ers have enough pieces where it might be worth going down that road if you don't believe in the passing game.

KICKERS

A decent number of points are expected to be scored Monday, but that doesn't mean we should only concentrate on touchdowns. The 49ers' Robbie Gould ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) comes in with multiple successful field goals in two of three games while also hitting all 10 of his PATs, and he makes for a very reasonable play in cash games if only because he's a kicker for a favorite. Then again, Austin Seibert ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) comes in a perfect 7-for-7 on field goal attempts this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in both of his road games. The biggest consideration for kickers is their floors, as rarely can they get enough attempts to reach 20-24 fantasy points, but 10-12 is well within the reasonable range as opposed to third-string wide receivers and running backs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers defense ($4,600 DK) has been solid this season, scoring at least 7.0 fantasy points in all three games thanks to at least two turnovers or four sacks. They had two defensive touchdowns in Week 1 against the Bucs, which has helped their average points per game, but they do get to face a quarterback with at least one turnover in each of his starts this season. Meanwhile, the Browns ($4,000) have been much better of late, with three turnovers in each of their last two while also sacking the quarterback four times in three of four games. They haven't scored a touchdown yet, but Garappolo has been picked off four times, so there's potential for a higher ceiling than the kickers.