Monday Night DFS Breakdown

We have two games Monday night, with the Steelers 6.5-point home favorites against Football Team starting at 5:00 p.m. EST followed by the Bills on the road against the 49ers at 8:15 p.m., with the home team a 1.0-point favorite. The first game has a fairly low 43.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, though the Bills vs. Niners game is only 47.0, so it's not like there are offensive explosions expected. Nevertheless, there are some clear paths for lineup building and avoiding the chalk will likely be the key for tournaments.

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT v. WAS ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD): Roethlisberger is the second-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel, but he seems likely to be the most popular due to some fairly loose pricing and the fact his team has the highest implied total and he's averaging 44.3 pass attempts per game over the last six, including 46.3 in his last four. The matchup isn't the best against Football Team, who allowed one or zero passing touchdowns in five of their last six, but Roethlisberger's volume and stack ability with his receivers will likely make him popular. With such a small slate, we'll probably see more team stacks in cash games than we're used to seeing on regular 10 to 12-games slates, with the Steelers likely to be the most popular. 

Josh Allen ($7,300 DK, $8,900 FD) is the most expensive quarterback on both sites and has plenty of ability to put up a big fantasy score without relying on his receivers since he runs the ball well (only two quarterbacks have more rushing touchdowns than his six), so he seems more likely to be played as a one-off against a 49ers defense that's allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, though no team has allowed more rushing yards to the position, which obviously sets up well for Allen. 

Given the ability to pay up for either Roethlisberger or Allen, Nick Mullens ($5,100 DK, $6,600 FD) and Alex Smith ($4,900 DK, $6,600 FD) are likely to be on few teams, which obviously gives them GPP leverage. Of the two, it seems Mullens could have the advantage against a Bills defense that's allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, though some of that comes from the fact that no one has allowed more rushing touchdowns, which isn't surprising considering they played Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray in three of their last four and faced Ryan Tannehill earlier this season. Plus, Smith faces a Steelers defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position this season, and he isn't the type of quarterback who is likely to break that up.

RUNNING BACKS

Benny Snell, PIT v. WAS ($5,400): If you're someone who likes to pay up for running backs because they feel like safe and secure fantasy points, well, I've got some bad news. Antonio Gibson ($6,500 DK, $6,800 FD) is the most expensive running back on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel, while Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD) is the most expensive on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings. Gibson will face off against a Steelers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and it only makes matters worse that he's a 6.5-point underdog because he loses a decent amount of passing work to J.D. McKissic ($4,500 DK, $5,400 FD). It's worth noting Gibson had seven targets to McKissic's two last week, so maybe the coaching staff is finally realizing there's no reason for Gibson to come off the field, but the matchup sure is a tough one to buy into. Snell's matchup isn't ideal, but with a lower salary on both sites and the Steelers decent favorites, he should get enough work to pay off. Looking at recent results, Washington gave up over 100 rushing yards to running backs in Weeks 9 (Gaints) and 10 (Lions) before holding the Bengals and Cowboys under 50, and the Steelers are certainly better than those teams.

Raheem Mostert, SF v. BUF ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD): From a matchup perspective, Mostert has the best one against a Bills defense that's allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, including the eighth-highest yards per carry allowed. The difficulty with Mostert is that the 49ers generally use a committee of him, Jerick McKinnon ($4,100 DK, $5,700 FD) and Jeff Wilson ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD), and it seems likely they'll get Tevin Coleman ($4,400 DK, $5,300 FD) back from injury. It's a sloppy situation, but Mostert is the most likely to lead them in carries, with McKinnon and Coleman options in the passing game. 

The situation is slightly better than the Bills using Zack Moss ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD) and Devin Singletary ($4,300 DK, $5,500 FD), if only because they don't have to deal with their quarterback poaching some carries, particularly near the goal line. Additionally, they're up against a defense that's allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Diontae Johnson, PIT v. WAS ($6,300, $6,900 FD): Given their prices and fact that they have the highest implied total on the slate, I fully expect the Steelers to be the most popular stack Monday night. With Johnson, Chase Claypool ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,700 DK, $6,300 FD) all reasonably priced, it's pretty easy to get at least two into lineups with Roethlisberger, and you can add Terry McLaurin ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) as a run-back. If there's one thing to consider it's that Washington has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but they also allowed at least 127 receiving yards to the position in each of the last four games (Giants, Lions, Bengals and Cowboys), as well as four receiving touchdowns in the past three. Needless to say, that's not enough to get people to move away from the Steelers wide receivers. Adding in that Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the run-back just makes more sense, especially since McLaurin is the only Football Team wideout to average more than four targets per game.

Stefon Diggs, BUF at SF ($7,500 DK, $8,100 FD): Diggs, the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel, has the third-most targets in the NFL this season, helping him to the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards (McLaurin is one spot ahead in that category). Given his dominance of the Bills' targets -- accounting for 28.8 percent of the team's total, the second-highest in the league -- he is the easy stacking partner for Allen, though it's obviously a pricey one. Thankfully, the 49ers receivers aren't overly expensive (no one is really), so using someone like Deebo Samuel ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,100 DK, $6,600 FD) or Kendrick Bourne ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD) isn't that tough from a salary perspective. Despite a ton of injuries throughout the season, the 49ers have only allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, though they allowed over 200 yards and three touchdowns to the position in Weeks 8 (Seahawks) and 9 (Packers). Nevertheless, Diggs is an elite option and certainly won't go overlooked on a slate that doesn't have many high-priced players.

TIGHT ENDS

Eric Ebron, PIT v. WAS ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD): Ebron is the most expensive tight end on the slate because George Kittle (foot) is out, and he remains a solid option as a one-off or as part of a Steelers stack, especially because he's decently cheaper than the wide receivers. He scored touchdowns in three of four games before getting 11 targets last week, and he now faces a Football Team defense that's allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends, which is aided by only seven teams allowing more touchdowns to the position.

The other possibilities are perfectly fine, though touchdown dependent, with fantasy players potentially favoring Jordan Reed ($3,200 DK, $5,000 FD) against a Bills defense that's given up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most receptions. Then again, Logan Thomas ($3,100 DK, $5,300 FD) is always more popular than he should be, and he's facing a Steelers defense that has allowed only one tight end touchdown and the fewest fantasy points this season. Actually, the Steelers are tied with the 49ers for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position, which is certainly not great news for Dawson Knox ($2,900 DK, $4,400 FD) or Tyler Kroft ($2,500 DK, $4,600 FD) of the Bills.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

There is a pretty significant price difference between the Steelers ($4,500 DK, $5,000 FD) and Football Team ($2,500 DK, $4,000 FD), particularly on DraftKings, which is a reflection of the game odds even though Washington has at least four sacks in five of their last six games, as well as multiple turnovers in each of their last two. That's not to say the Steelers are a bad choice by any means, but it may be more beneficial to use the extra salary on skill players with more upside. The Bills ($3,000 DK, $4,100 FD) have been getting to the quarterback well lately, and Mullens tends to make mistakes when he's under pressure, so they seems like a viable alternative for those who need the salary over the 49ers ($2,600 DK, $4,000 FD).